World Cup Qualifying Draw

As many of you know, the qualifying draw for the 2010 World Cup will be made on Sunday in Durban, South Africa, the host nation for the world's biggest tournament. Because this is an English, American, and to a lesser extent, European soccer blog, I'll only be posting the UEFA and CONCACAF qualifying groups and commenting on those; if you want to see where your favorite Asian or African national team was drawn, there are plenty of other websites out there on which you can look.

Here are some notes surrounding the draw, taken straight from the BBC:

"The event will see Asia's groups drawn first, followed by those in the CONCACAF region, made up of countries in central and north America and the Caribbean.

About an hour into the draw, Europe will be put in the spotlight when its 53 teams are divided into nine qualifying groups - eight of six teams and one of five.

The winners of each European group will qualify for the World Cup finals and the best eight runners-up play off for four more qualifying berths.

The evening rounds off with the draw for the African Zone, where 48 teams will be placed into 12 groups of four teams.

There is no draw for South America and the Oceania region, who have already started their preliminary competition.

Europe has the biggest representation at the World Cup finals with 13 places.

Africa will have three rounds of qualification, the first of which is already completed.

Asia has five stages of qualification, two of which have been completed.

All of CONCACAF's 35 members have entered four stages of qualifying, the first two of which will be played on a knockout basis.

The 10 South American countries (CONMEBOL) began their super group in October.

Oceania is already deep into its qualifying campaign with a group competition involving Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand and Vanuatu."

England won't be amongst Europe's top seeds after they slipped to #12 in the latest FIFA world rankings, meaning they will be drawn in the same group as one of the following nations: Italy, the defending champions, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Holland, Greece, and the Czech Republic. Obviously from an English perspective, they'll hope to get drawn into a group with Greece.

Season Summaries--3. Manchester City

3. Manchester City (My preseason prediction: 15th)

Before I get to my summary, I have to try and cover my backside here. When I made my preseason prediction for City, it was before they had even signed Elano or Geovanni or Vedran Corluka, so when you all want to say "I told you so, I said City would be a top-10 team", at least take that into account.

I've said in previous posts that goal differential usually is a stat that doesn't mean much; I think it's a misleading and often meaningless figure. Bolton's top-8 success over the last few years wasn't exactly a masterpiece and their goal differential was usually lower than that of the teams directly above and even below them in the table but they still got the job done. However, when you're talking about the top teams in any given league, their goal differential is usually going to be relatively high simply because they win more games than they lose, and more often than not their margin of victory is at least a couple of goals.

Manchester City's goal differential is +3 right now, which isn't even comparable to those of Manchester United and Arsenal (+17), Chelsea and Portsmouth (+10), or Liverpool (+13), or the top teams City are either above or below in the table. That +3, in fact, is the least goal differential out of anyone in the top 10. That statistic alone tells me that Manchester City won't keep up the current form that's propelled them to 3rd place a third of the way through the season; I believe they are closer to a UEFA Cup spot finisher than a Champions League place finisher and I still think Portsmouth, Blackburn, Aston Villa, and maybe even Everton will finish ahead of the Citizens when all is said and done.

City's perfect home record (7-0-0) is offset by their poor road record (1-2-3; their only win came at West Ham). I know that they're not conceding many goals (13), but they're also not scoring at a high enough rate to compete with the high-flying teams in the Premiership, like Portsmouth, United, Aston Villa, and Arsenal. You simply can't win every game 1-0 like City has done throughout the year; eventually the magic runs out and 1-0 victories become 0-0 or 1-1 draws or even 1-0 losses. Let's also face the fact that aside from a victory over a much-weakened (due to injuries and suspensions) Manchester United side in mid-August and a solid home victory over Aston Villa, City hasn't really even beaten anyone good (West Ham, Derby, Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Birmingham, Bolton, and Sunderland). They've played 3 games against teams I would consider to be equal competition (Blackburn, Villa, and Pompey; they haven't played Everton yet) and taken just four of a possible nine points. We won't even go into their 6-0 hammering at the hands of Chelsea or a 1-0 loss to Arsenal that easily could've been 3-0 or 4-0. Look, I'm not sold on City and they need to start playing better away from home and against teams comparable to them. They also have to figure out a way to score more goals because Elano can't score on a free kick every time, the strikers need to chip in as well. Two goals from Emile Mpenza and just one from big summer signing Rolando Bianchi isn't going to cut it.

Season Summaries--4. Chelsea

4. Chelsea (My preseason prediction: 2nd)

After José Mourinho's abrupt departure from Stamford Bridge on September 20, many people were skeptical about Avram Grant and how he would manage a team comprised largely of players brought in by Mourinho and who loved playing for him. Chelsea has played 12 games in all competitions since Mourinho left and have only beaten once; a 2-0 loss at Manchester United just three days after Grant took over a team that was still reeling from Mourinho's exit by "mutual consent". In those 12 games Chelsea emerged victorious eight times, including the 6-0 thrashing of Manchester City. They've advanced to the quarterfinals of the Carling Cup where they'll host fellow title contender Liverpool, they've pretty much sealed their place in the knockout Round of 16 in the Champions League, and have kept their home unbeaten streak alive and kicking at 69 matches.

Basically, my point is that Chelsea have done just fine under Avram Grant, they don't seem to have missed a beat; in fact, you could argue they're playing better soccer than they were when Mourinho was at the helm. Yes, a 0-0 draw at home against Fulham and a 1-0 win at Bolton may be cause for concern, but those games were early in Grant's tenure at Chelsea and I'm sure he was still getting used to his side and tactical decisions and everything that comes with being a manager instead of a coach. With games against Derby, West Ham, and Sunderland coming up in the Premiership, Grant will have a chance to rest a few players for Chelsea's two remaining group matches in the Champions League and for the clash against Liverpool in the Carling Cup.

Didier Drogba is carrying the scoring load once again (as expected) for Chelsea with 5 goals in 9 starts, and Frank Lampard has banged 4 in as well. Chelsea will never be mistaken for a club who's going to score a lot of goals; their 6-0 win over Manchester City was more of an anomaly and the Blues are more like the side who won at Wigan and Middlesbrough 2-0. I can nitpick and say their road record is a bit of a concern as they've already lost twice away from Stamford Bridge, but then again those defeats were at Manchester United and Aston Villa and there's nothing shameful about that. Chelsea also really need to do better at home; yes, they are obviously unbeaten but it's with three wins and three draws. Manchester United and Arsenal have both won 6 games out of 7 at their respective stadiums and Manchester City has won all seven of their home fixtures (though City won't be ahead of Chelsea for much longer, or of Liverpool for that matter).

Season Summaries--5. Liverpool

5. Liverpool (My preseason prediction: 3rd)

One of only two still-unbeaten teams left in the Premiership, Liverpool have had quite the roller coaster of a season. There was a stretch in September in which Liverpool scored only one goal in three Premiership matches, taking just five out of nine points from Portsmouth, Birmingham, and Wigan. From the middle of September into the middle of October, Liverpool played three Champions League matches and didn't win any of them, most surprising of which was a 1-0 loss at home against Marseille. Injuries also limited the choices Rafa Benitez had to pick from for a gameday squad and some important players went down: Daniel Agger has been out since mid-September with a broken metatarsal and has missed 13 matches; he looks set to return to the lineup this weekend, Fernando Torres has had to fight a strained adductor, Yossi Benayoun is out with an adductor tear, and Xabi Alonso has missed time with a broken metatarsal as well. These four players all are critical figures in the lineup and their absence has been a major factor in Liverpool's season so far.

However, a controversial 2-1 derby victory at Everton seems to have turned Liverpool's season around, as after another surprising Champions League loss at Turkish club Beskitas four days after, the Reds haven't lost in any competition. They thrashed Besiktas 8-0 at Anfield to thrust themselves right back into the mix to qualify for the knockout rounds of the Champions League, drew with Arsenal in a game they were 10 minutes away from winning, picked up a point at Blackburn (again, they could've won that game with a bit more luck), beat Cardiff in the Carling Cup to advance to the quarterfinals of that competition and spoiling Robbie Fowler's return to Anfield in the process, and dominated Fulham for 90 minutes in getting a 2-0 win. Liverpool haven't conceded a goal in the month of November and with Daniel Agger's supposed return this weekend against Newcastle, I can't see that stat changing.

As Liverpool are getting healthier and healthier, their schedule is getting easier and easier. Newcastle, Bolton, Reading, and Derby make up four of Liverpool's next six Premiership games with the other two coming against Manchester United and Portsmouth (both at Anfield). Liverpool play FC Porto and Marseille to complete their group stage schedule in the Champions League and should win both of those games to advance, especially as the more difficult game of the two (Porto) is at Anfield.

Torres leads the team in Premiership goals scored with 5 in 7 starts (10 appearances), and Andriy Voronin and captain Steven Gerrard have chipped in with three goals apiece. Liverpool have a game in hand on three of the four teams ahead of them; Arsenal has also played 12 games but Manchester United, Manchester City, and Chelsea have all played 13, and most impressively, have the most points away from home out of any team in the Premiership. You have to figure that their home record (2-4-0) will only get better and if Liverpool can keep up their road form, this is a team that will leap back up into the top two or three by the end of the season.