Monday, August 18, 2008

Premiership All-Star Team--Round 1

I'm going to do something new this season. After every round of games -- that is to say, after any league games that have been played between Tuesday of one week and Tuesday of the next (which takes into account the rare Monday night game) -- I'm going to name an All-Star Team based on that week's performances. I didn't do this last year, but I think this is a good way to recognize players that don't necessarily get much publicity over the course of 38 games.

I'm also going to make this a contest of sorts. For each time a player is an All-Star, he'll earn 10 points. My Player of the Week, who obviously will be in the team, gets 15 points. Most points at the end of the year wins, and that should give us a solid indication of who's in the running for Player of the Year in the Premiership and who's in line for other awards and international call-ups.

The formation isn't always going to be a traditional 4-4-2; it can be any "recognized" way to set up a team. I don't want my hands to be bound and have to choose players just to fit a formation, I want to be able to fit as many deserving players as I can into the team. It's not going to be anything outlandish, though, so don't worry.

Here's my All-Star Team for this weekend:

(4-3-3)
GK: Shay Given (Newcastle) -- Did you see those early, short-range saves on Wayne Rooney and Paul Scholes? He even took another off the ol' noggin when he denied Fraizer Campbell. Without Given, Newcastle loses that game.

RB: Grétar Steinsson (Bolton) -- Accidental or not, his tally will be a candidate for goal of the season. Also played well defensively.
CB: David Wheater (Middlesbrough) -- Scored the opener, had another disallowed (it should've stood), looked dangerous going forward, and spearheaded the unit that shut down Tottenham's vaunted attack all game long. Played right back in this game, but will move back into the center now that Justin Hoyte has arrived.
CB: William Gallas (Arsenal) -- The captain stepped up in Kolo Toure's absence, as it's usually the Ivorian who is the commanding presence in the center of Arsenal's defense. Arsenal didn't concede a goal, and Gallas was a big reason why.
LB: Stephen Warnock (Blackburn) -- Picture-perfect diagonal long ball to Santa Cruz for the equalizer, great free kick into the area to set up the winner.

RMF: Mikel Arteta (Everton) -- Scored on a terrific free kick from an acute angle in Everton's 3-2 loss to Blackburn. Was their shining light, by far.
CMF: Gareth Barry (Aston Villa) -- Everything goes through Barry for Villa. Had some chances going forward, and distributed the ball well to both flanks in a 4-2 win over Manchester City.
LMF: Ashley Young (Aston Villa) -- One direct assist and started two other goals. Terrorized City's defense the entire game.

ST: Dean Ashton (West Ham) -- Scored both goals in the Hammers' 2-1 victory over Wigan.
ST: Gabriel Agbonlahor (Aston Villa) -- Perfect hat trick in seven minutes. Enough said.
ST: Johan Elmander (Bolton) -- Celebrated his first game in the Premiership with a goal and looked very lively before being subbed out in the 76th minute.

Player of the Week: Agbonlahor

Saturday, August 16, 2008

England Squad Announced for Czech Republic Friendly

Fabio Capello has named his 23-man roster for England's friendly against the Czech Republic on Wednesday, and there were a couple of surprise absentees, one of which really bothers me.

I can't emphasize enough just how highly I rate Aston Villa's Ashley Young, who had a breakout season last year and was rewarded with a place in the PFA Team of the Year for his efforts. He's right-footed but plays on the left wing and has a good enough left foot, which he showed midweek on the terrific goal he scored in Villa's 4-1 victory over FH in the UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round. England has a huge void on the left flank: Stewart Downing isn't good enough, Joe Cole doesn't bring much pace to the position, and there really aren't many options behind those two and Young.

Young was snubbed by Capello -- that's the only way I can put it. He should've been in the squad and should've started in the game. It's that simple. You cannot and never will convince me that Downing is a better player than Young. Cole should be on the field, but not at that position. If anyone watched Aston Villa last season, they'd know just how good of a player this guy is. His peers recognize his talent, hence the spot on that PFA team.

The other notable exclusion was that of Darren Bent, who lit it up in the pre-season for Tottenham with, I believe, 12 goals in 5 or 6 games. I understand that pre-season doesn't mean much but they're games. What else is Capello supposed to go on? The main issue with Steve McLaren was that he seemed to pick his team on reputation and name value rather than form, and Capello didn't do that when he took over. It's almost impossible to be playing better right now than Bent.

My surprise here is coupled with the fact that Capello selected Wayne Rooney as one of his three strikers. Rooney has been out for a couple weeks with a virus he contracted on Manchester United's pre-season tour of Africa. He definitely has the talent to be on this team, but he hasn't played in a while and is only just now near complete recovery. He has a tendency to drop back into midfield, where England is already loaded, to pick up the ball instead of staying up front to receive it. This is fine, and I wouldn't have as much of a problem with it as I do, but Capello also picked Jermain Defoe, who is another quick, slight striker, and only one center forward, Emile Heskey, whose best days are clearly behind him.

There's no way that Bent shouldn't be in this group based on his attributes and his current form. If you're going to play Rooney, it's like adding another midfielder with the way he plays for England, and if you're going to play Defoe, he's going to be alongside an unfamiliar face in Heskey. Bent and Defoe were teammates at Tottenham last season before the latter moved to Portsmouth in January, so they should have some chemistry. Defoe has been training with Peter Crouch, a perfect contrasting partnership, all summer, and Crouch also wasn't named to the England team.

West Ham's Dean Ashton certainly would've made the team after his two-goal performance today against Wigan as he's a solid center forward, but he's been ruled out with an injury problem, something that has plagued his career.

Here's the full squad, followed immediately by a couple additional thoughts on the team and my personal starting lineup based on the options available, not necessarily who Capello will use:

GK (3): David James (Portsmouth), Joe Hart (Manchester City), Paul Robinson (Blackburn)

DEF (8): Wayne Bridge, Ashley Cole, and John Terry (Chelsea), Wes Brown and Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United), Glen Johnson (Portsmouth), Jonathan Woodgate (Tottenham), Matthew Upson (West Ham)

MID (9): Theo Walcott (Arsenal), Gareth Barry (Aston Villa), Joe Cole and Frank Lampard (Chelsea), David Beckham (Los Angeles Galaxy), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Stewart Downing (Middlesbrough), David Bentley and Jermaine Jenas (Tottenham)

ST (3): Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Jermain Defoe (Portsmouth), Emile Heskey (Wigan)

• Eight defenders and nine midfielders, but only three strikers? Interesting, considering Rooney has been sick lately.

• I have no idea how Wayne Bridge, who can’t even get a game at Chelsea and certainly doesn’t start on a regular basis, is the second left back ahead of guys like Nicky Shorey, Stephen Warnock, or even Joleon Lescott, a natural center back capable of playing on the left. Those three are all starters, play a lot, and are good players. Bridge doesn't fit into either of the first two categories, so how can be on the team?

(4-4-1-1)
GK: James

RB: Johnson
CB: Ferdinand
CB: Terry
LB: A. Cole

RMF: Beckham
DMF: Barry
CMF: Gerrard (captain)
LMF: J. Cole

SS: Rooney

ST: Heskey

Update (08/17-4:28 PM): An ankle injury suffered by Carrick in today’s Manchester United-Newcastle game has ruled the midfielder out of this upcoming friendly. Capello replaced Carrick with Jermaine Jenas. My original starting lineup included Carrick but has now been adjusted and based on Gareth Barry’s current form, he gets the nod.

"I'm on Setanta Sports" Is Back!



The Special One is back and better than ever this season. It would be difficult for an ordinary man to manage Inter Milan and host a hit TV show at the same time, but Senore Mourinho is no ordinary man. He is fantastic.

In this episode, José chats with his co-host, Sven-Göran Eriksson, aka "It", about managing Mexico and how the cultures in Mexico and England are different. The show's other co-host, Wayne Rooney, may have picked up a virus on Manchester United's preseason tour of Africa but he's healthy enough to make his usual appearance on the show. Don't worry, it's not malaria.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Premiership Preview--1. Manchester United

The two-time defending champion of England and current champion of Europe experienced quite the drawn-out saga this summer, as there were times when it seemed certain that Cristiano Ronaldo, the most talented player in the world, would be leaving Old Trafford for Real Madrid. He stayed put, delaying his inevitable move to the club he supported as a boy for at least another season.

It would be unfair to say that Ronaldo single-handedly led United to their second European Double, but without the Portuguese winger on board, there's no way that the Red Devils would've accomplished the feat. He will miss the first month or so of the '08-'09 campaign while recovering from the ankle surgery he had done in early July, though, and we saw what happened in the first couple of weeks last season to United when they didn't have him or Wayne Rooney in the lineup: United looked extremely sluggish, and scoring goals became a difficult chore rather than a sure bet.

Sir Alex Ferguson hasn't addressed that yet this summer. He hasn't brought in any new faces, though the on-again, off-again speculation surrounding Dimitar Berbatov's move from Tottenham seems to be in full force right now. Berbatov would address United's biggest need -- a true striker who can play with his back to goal. Unlike Rooney and Carlos Tevez, Berbatov doesn't drop back into the midfield to collect the ball, he stays up front and gets himself in a position where he can do the most damage. Fraizer Campbell is back from his loan at Hull City, where he shined last season in the Championship. Campbell is nowhere near Berbatov's level, obviously, but has scored wherever he's been. He'll get a chance to play up front this year; Ferguson really likes this kid.

Ferguson lost his right-hand man in Carlos Queiroz, who left Manchester to become his native Portugal's senior national team head coach. The two men had established a great relationship over the years, both personal and professional, and Queiroz's absence will be felt. As I wrote earlier this summer, Queiroz is largely responsible for Ronaldo still playing for United and played a major role in landing Nani and Anderson, both of whom speak Portuguese, before last season.

As far as players go, United hasn't lost any of importance. Gerard Pique has plenty of potential and can play at center back and right back, but the Spanish youngster never seemed to settle in England. He went back home to play for Barcelona after some nervous performances last season in fill-in circumstances.

The Red Devils are undoubtedly strongest in midfield, where they have nine players for four or five spots, depending on the formation and importance of a given game. The wingers are interchangeable and shift from left to right. Ronaldo highlights this group, this team, and this league, and his fellow countryman, Nani, will be given a larger role opposite him this year. Nani is a "mini-Ronaldo" and will step right into Ronaldo's shoes if and when he does, in fact, leave for the Bernabeu. The vastly more experienced Ryan Giggs, who has appeared in over 750 competitive games in 18 seasons and counting with the club, will play an important, but reduced, part this season, likely used in the big Premiership and Champions League games. The same applies to Anderson and Paul Scholes, though Scholes does have more in the tank left than Giggs and will play more often than the Welshman. Anderson is the heir apparent to that position, ahead of Owen Hargreaves and Michael Carrick, the two solid holding midfielders. Darren Fletcher and John O'Shea are two of the most valuable utility players in the league. Park Ji-Sung has a tough time staying healthy but when he's fit, Ferguson plays him and he's another one of the manager's favorites.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Edwin van der Sar

RB: Wes Brown
CB: Rio Ferdinand
CB: Nemanja Vidić
LB: Patrice Evra

*RMF: Nani
**DMF: Carrick
CMF: Scholes
*LMF: Giggs

ST: Rooney
ST: Tevez

Again, the two wingers will swap sides throughout the course of the game. With Ronaldo out, both Nani and Giggs will start. When Ronaldo comes back, one of those two will obviously sit.

**Hargreaves may miss the first week or two with a knee injury, so Carrick will step in. Last season, Ferguson seemed to interchange Carrick and Hargreaves with neither one really getting a long stretch at a time in the starting lineup. Both will play significant minutes this year.

United opened the new year last Sunday, beating Portsmouth in PK's to win their second consecutive Community Shield. The game itself is basically just a glorified exhibition, but it's still a trophy, and it symbolizes what we've been waiting for all summer: the start of another Premiership season.

Ferguson's side kicks off their domestic league slate on Sunday with a home date against Newcastle. The same game last year finished 6-0 to United, and their fans would like nothing more than a repeat of that performance.

It gets tougher after that, though -- United visits Portsmouth next weekend, never an easy place to play, plays Zenit St. Petersburg in the UEFA Super Cup, another glorified exhibition, in Monaco on the 29th, then come home less than 24 hours later to play Fulham.

A trip to Anfield to take on Liverpool on September 13 is the highlight of their early season schedule, and it's followed up by another difficult game at Chelsea. Those two will be United's main competitors in the Premiership this year, so it'll be interesting to see how those three stack up with each other.

The first Manchester derby of the year comes at City on November 30, a week after United will be challenged at Aston Villa. City won both games against their crosstown rivals last year, which is unacceptable for United and a historical rarity. Ferguson hates losing more than any other manager in the league, especially in those types of games, so you can count on him lighting a fire in his team to put in an impressive performance and get a victory.

Stepping back and examining this league schedule from a broader sense, it shapes up favorably for the champions. Cup competitions and their Champions League will complicate things, sure, but United doesn't have any strenuous run of domestic games. Granted, they don't have a particularly easy stretch either. They host Arsenal and City before finishing up the year at Hull City, and that's a microcosm of their year -- a couple tough games but a very easy one right after, or two easy ones with a tricky match in between.

Bottom Line: With Berbatov, United is a slam dunk to win the league for the third straight year. Without him, they're still the clear favorite. This team is better top-to-bottom than any other in the Premiership, in both their starting XI point of view and their full first team roster. The key is keeping Ronaldo and Rooney in the lineup -- they're vulnerable without one and beatable without both. Ronaldo isn't going to have as good of a season as he did last year; that would be impossible, so someone or a combination of players has to step up. If it's Nani, watch out, because it's scary how much raw talent this guy has.

And that's a wrap, my second annual Premiership Preview is now complete. The new year gets underway tomorrow, though Sunday's games should be more entertaining. It's been a pleasure to write these capsules, and whether you agree with them or not, I'm glad you've checked them out. I appreciate the feedback as always.

Let the season begin!

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Carling Cup Second Round Draw

For the most part, things went according to plan in the First Round of the Carling Cup, which was contested over a period of a couple days earlier this week. There were a couple upsets -- League Two side Rotherham United went to Sheffield Wednesday and bounced the favorite out in a shootout, and Yeovil Town made a trip to The Valley and beat Charlton Athletic 1-0 -- and some tricky games for the big boys at this stage of tournament -- Derby County needed extra time to put away Lincoln City, as did Wolves to overcome Accrington Stanley -- but other than that, the favorites held serve.

The 36 first round winners advanced to the Second Round, where they'll be joined by the 11 Premiership sides not playing in European competition this season and Manchester City, who is playing in Europe but got there through the Fair Play table and not last year's league position, thus not receiving a bye to the Third Round. In total, 48 teams from the Football League will continue their quest to pick up a nice piece of silverware.

The draw was held yesterday and the one-off matches will be played during the week beginning on August 25. Because of Manchester City's European commitment -- they'll be playing the second leg of their UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round tie at FC Midtjylland in Denmark on the 28th -- the Blues' Carling Cup game against Brighton & Hove Albion has been pushed back to sometime between September 22-29.

There are some interesting matchups here, most of all being Nottingham Forest-Sunderland. Sunderland boss Roy Keane made his name as a player at Forest, spending the first three seasons of his English career there before moving on to Manchester United. The Irishman hasn't been back yet for a competitive game as a manager, although his current team did beat Forest in a preseason friendly there earlier this summer.

Fresh off their upset at Charlton Athletic, Yeovil gets another chance to pull off a shocker as they host Middlesbrough. Leeds United takes on Crystal Palace in a battle of former Premiership teams. Newcastle pays a visit to the Ricoh Arena and Coventry City

Here's the complete draw (home teams are listed first, Premiership teams are in bold):

Ipswich Town vs. Colchester United
Coventry City vs. Newcastle United
Hartlepool United vs. West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United vs. Macclesfield Town
Huddersfield Town vs. Sheffield United
Cardiff City vs. MK Dons
Swansea City vs. Hull City
Rotherham United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Manchester City
Reading vs. Luton Town
Blackburn Rovers vs. Grimsby Town
Wigan Athletic vs. Notts County
Leeds United vs. Crystal Palace
Crewe Alexandra vs. Bristol City
Middlesbrough vs. Yeovil Town
Fulham vs. Leicester City
Queens Park Rangers vs. Carlisle United
Nottingham Forest vs. Sunderland
Burnley vs. Oldham Athletic
Southampton vs. Birmingham City
Bolton Wanderers vs. Northampton Town
Watford vs. Darlington
Preston North End vs. Derby County
Cheltenham Town vs. Stoke City

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Premiership Preview--2. Liverpool

For Liverpool FC, it's all about the Premiership this season. Another deep run in the Champions League would be nice, don't misunderstand, but the primary focus for Rafa Benitez and his team is the domestic league. Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher, the two leaders of the club, have said as much since the middle of last year. Liverpool has won the most top flight titles in English history (18) but haven't added to their total since the 1989-1990 campaign. That's not good enough, no matter how much success they have in Europe.

The Reds have taken a major step towards their ultimate goal with the signing of Robbie Keane from Tottenham. It's no coincidence that Keane put up his best numbers in his last two seasons in North London (45 goals combined in all competitions; he benefited from playing alongside Dimitar Berbatov, who took a lot of the defensive pressure and focus off Keane. With that said, though, Keane was a solid striker before Berbatov's arrival for the 2006-2007 season -- the Irish national team captain scored 13, 16, 17, and 16 goals, respectively, in all competitions in the four years prior to linking up with Berbatov. He goes from strength to strength anyway, because his new strike partner, Fernando Torres, is even better than his last one and so is the cast of characters behind him. Keane gives Benitez some versatility up front; he can play in the middle behind Torres in the 4-2-3-1 that worked wonders for Liverpool in the second half of last season, or he can play right next to Torres in a traditional 4-4-2.

Liverpool also added two fullbacks -- Andrea Dossena (left) and Philipp Degen (right). If today's Champions League game is any indication, and I think it is, Dossena will get the lion's share of playing time at left back, allowing Fábio Aurélio to be used off the bench at either left midfield or in the back. Degen has more of a fight on his hands for minutes, as he has to compete with both Steve Finnan, who has been at Liverpool for a while and is liked by the fans, and Alvaro Arbeloa, a favorite of Benitez.

The departures of Harry Kewell and John Arne Riise are really addition by subtraction. Neither had any future with the club and were only hamstringing the wage budget, in Kewell's case, and on-field results, in Riise's case. Peter Crouch is a very good player and will probably be successful for Portsmouth, but he wasn't given the consistent opportunities he needed to be at his most effective by Benitez. Crouch didn't fit into the system, though he was a spark off the bench late in games, so he was sold off and Liverpool made a nice profit on the tall, lanky center forward. He was replaced by David N'Gog, a talented 6'3" striker who has scored at every youth level he's played at for France. Just 19, N'Gog has a real future at Liverpool and don't be surprised if he scores some meaningful goals this season as well.

Like many of the other teams in the Premiership, Liverpool is strongest in midfield, though their defense, anchored by Carragher and Pepe Reina in goal, is also very solid. Gerrard is the club captain and heart and soul of the team. He's a natural box-to-box midfielder and probably his country's best in that role. He played behind Torres in that 4-2-3-1 I mentioned earlier and really caught fire towards the end of the season, but will likely move to the right side this year if Benitez continues to use that formation. If he reverts to a 4-4-2, Gerrard will play in the center with the tough-tackling, hard-nosed Javier Mascherano behind him. Dirk Kuyt is a workhorse on the right wing and will run and run all day, which makes up for his lack of natural talent. Ryan Babel plays opposite his fellow Dutchman, using his pace and dribbling ability to either beat opposing defenders to the endline or cutting inside and launching an effort with his lethal right foot. Neither Kuyt not Babel are natural wide players, but they get the job done. Xabi Alonso is a great passer and plays in the center, as will Lucas and, to a lesser extent, Damien Plessis. Jermaine Pennant is a decent right winger when his head is screwed on right. Yossi Benayoun is extremely versatile and can be plugged in anywhere across the midfield.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Reina

RB: Arbeloa
CB: Carragher
CB: Daniel Agger
LB: Dossena

RMF: Kuyt
*DMF: Mascherano
CMF: Gerrard (captain)
*LMF: Babel

ST: Torres
ST: Keane

*Mascherano and Babel will miss the start of the season due to their participation in the Olympics, but both are sure starters and will reclaim their places upon their returns. Lucas, too, is at the Olympics, but he's only one of a group of players that provide suitable cover in the middle. Benayoun should fill in for Babel on the left, and Alonso will do the same for Mascherano.

Liverpool's season got underway today with a 0-0 draw in the first leg of their Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie against Standard Liege. The game was in Belgium, and Reina bailed Liverpool out with a penalty save in the 11th minute. Benitez would've loved to have an away goal to take back to Anfield in two weeks, obviously, but his team will still get the job done in that return leg and progress to the Group Stage.

Counting that game, four of Liverpool's next six fixtures are at home. The most intersting of those six, though, is away on the last day of August, when they'll pay a visit to Villa Park. The corresponding game last season was very exciting, and Gerrard's terrific curling free kick won it for Liverpool late, just a few minutes after Gareth Barry had converted a penalty to tie the game. Villa will be a European contender this season, so expect this rematch to be another classic.

Liverpool will play their two biggest rivals, Manchester United and Everton, in September, sandwiched around what should be an easy win at home against Stoke City. The Reds host United the week before and contest the first Merseyside derby of the season at Goodison Park to finish up the month.

A six-day span in late November and goes a day into December will be tricky, as Liverpool plays at Chelsea, hosts Portsmouth, and travels back to London to take on Tottenham. After that, though, Liverpool welcomes West Brom to Anfield (win), oes to Bolton (win), and then play Fulham and West Ham at home (both wins).

Visits from Everton and Chelsea highlight Liverpool's January slate, which also includes games at Stoke and Wigan, a feisty little team that went to Anfield and came away with a draw last season.

After playing Arsenal on April 18, by which point Arsenal's title hopes will be no more, Liverpool finishes up their season with five games that should net them 15 points if they bring their best effort -- Hull City, Newcastle, @West Ham, @West Brom, and Tottenham. Liverpool will likely need all of those games to make one last push at the title, but again, they should get them.

Bottom Line: The combination of Gerrard, Keane, and Torres is good for 50 goals. Benitez needs someone else to step up, though, and that player could turn out to be Babel. Agger's return from injury is like another impact signing; he and Carragher are as good as any center back pairing in the Premiership. Reina is great in goal. The midfield is loaded, but could use a true winger. As I said earlier, it's clear that the Premiership is Liverpool's first priority, and with a little bit of luck, this is a team that can compete for the title.

Tomorrow, then, is my preview of Manchester United, who I believe will win their third Premiership trophy in a row. I know -- surprise, surprise, right? It's not an original pick, I'm not going out and taking a risk, I understand all of that. You know what, though? Too bad.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Premiership Preview--3. Chelsea

Chelsea has not finished outside the top two in five seasons, a span in which they're averaging a mind-blowing 88.5 points a season. They've won two Premiership titles, two Carling Cups, an FA Cup, and, for what it's worth, a Community Shield, during this stretch. They have an impressive, slightly overrated in my opinion because of the number of draws, unbeaten streak at home in the league -- 82 games and counting.

For all of that success, though, the one trophy most coveted by the West London club and its fans, the Champions League, has painfully eluded their grasp over that time. Counting last year's run, the Blues have made it at least to the semifinals of Europe's top club competition in four of those last five years, but they failed to win the whole thing every time.

Chelsea literally was inches away from putting an end to that on that rainy May night in Moscow against Manchester United, but as we all remember, John Terry slipped on his run-up and missed the penalty kick that would've won the final in a shootout, and Nicholas Anelka's effort was saved three rounds later by Edwin van der Sar to give United their third European Cup/Champions League title.

The big story at Stamford Bridge this summer is the hiring of Luiz Felipe Scolari, a former World Cup-winning manager with Brazil and two-time winner of Copa Libertadores in the '90's. Scolari doesn't have any experience with European club soccer, much less at such a high-profile post as Chelsea boss, but this is a man who can deal with big egos and make sure the team comes first. Unlike his predecessor, Avram Grant, Scolari has been around the block a few times and won't simply be a "yes man" for wealthy owner Roman Abramovich.

The problem with Scolari is his age -- almost 60. He's at a point in his career where most managers are leaving club jobs to either retire or take up less demanding international posts. Scolari is doing the exact opposite, and while there's no question that he's a fiery, passionate guy in spurts, which we've seen with Brazil and Portugal more recently, I'm not sure that he can bring the energy necessary to the position over the course of such a grueling season. He reminds me of a fire in a way -- when first lit and provided with kindling, he can burn quickly and the light and heat is there, but as the fuel runs out, the flame dies down. That's the scenario I expect to see with Scolari this season, one that may provide a shock to him as far as how difficult the transition from international to club management truly is.

He's brought a couple of the Portuguese stars he coached during his tenure with the Iberian country with him in Deco, who was a steal for $16 million, and Bosingwa, who will provide much-needed stability to the right back position that had become a revolving door under Grant and José Mourinho before him.

Those two were Chelsea's only acquisitions so far, but they haven't lost a whole lot either. Steve Sidwell never should have went to Chelsea in the first place. He was just a spare part at the Bridge and his talent was wasted there, so he moved to Aston Villa and will reap the personal benefits from doing so. Tal Ben Haim was nothing more than cover at center back but the emergence of Branislav Ivanović, who spent the past couple seasons at Lokomotiv Moscow, meant Ben Haim was surplus to requirements. Claude Makelele was a great player in his prime and is what all defensive midfielders aspire to be, but as age has caught up with him (he's lost more than a step) and Michael Essien and John Obi Mikel continue to develop, the Frenchman's services were no longer needed.

Essien and Obi Mikel are two cogs to a Chelsea midfield that is absolutely stacked. They don't have much quality on the wings aside from Joe Cole, who isn't even a prototypical wide player anyway. Florent Malouda and Shaun Wright-Phillips don't cut it at a club as big as Chelsea, simple as that, though they do have their good moments. Essien, Michael Ballack, Deco, and Frank Lampard are all great center midfielders, and Obi Mikel may be on his way to that status if he could manage to stay on the field and not pick up silly bookings. Scolari has to find a way to get as much of this talent on the field at one time as possible, so you could see a narrow diamond in the middle, similar to what AC Milan and the Italian national team employ, a 4-1-4-1 with Didier Drogba as the lone striker, or the same 4-3-3/4-5-1 that's been used in recent seasons.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-3-3/4-5-1):
GK: Petr Čech

RB: Bosingwa
CB: John Terry (captain)
CB: Ricardo Carvalho
LB: Ashley Cole

RCMF: Lampard
DMF: Essien
LCMF: Deco

RMF/RWF: Wright-Phillips
ST: Drogba
LMF/LWF: Cole

This midfield and front line will be very fluid based on fitness and form; Nicholas Anelka will get a chance to play up top or wide left, as will Salomon Kalou. Malouda plays there too. Wright-Phillips brings pace to the right flank. Scott Sinclair, like Kalou, is a speedy winger/striker that can make an impact. Obi Mikel can be brought on late to lock a game down in place of a more attack-minded player and clog up the midfield. Chelsea paid a lot of money for Andriy Shevchenko, so he's going to play up front at some point. Scolari has plenty of options depending on his strategy in a given game.

Chelsea's Premiership schedule sets up relatively comfortably through November; their road games (Wigan, Manchester City, Stoke City, Middlesbrough, Hull City, Blackburn, and West Brom) are all very winnable, and the other teams, who, granted, will provide stiff opposition for Chelsea, all come to Stamford Bridge and Chelsea just doesn't lose there. Those teams: Portsmouth, Tottenham, Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Sunderland, Newcastle, and Arsenal. By no means am I saying Chelsea will waltz through the first half of their league campaign, but they do have the significant advantage of playing those tough teams at home.

The schedule balances out in the second half, obviously, so Chelsea has to visit all those sides at some point. However, there isn't one month that stands out above the rest from December on as being much trickier than another. December is Chelsea's easiest month -- they visit Bolton, Everton, and Fulham and host West Ham and West Brom. Their toughest month is probably March, because even though they play Manchester United and Liverpool in January, those are the bookend games of their four total and the middle two are at home against Stoke and Middlesbrough. In March, Chelsea goes to Portsmouth and Tottenham and welcome Manchester City to West London in between.

Bottom Line: I'm not exactly going out on a limb by saying this team is very, very good. There are no obvious weaknesses; they do need some more quality on the wings, but Scolari has the personnel to not even use wingers in the first place if he doesn't want to. Chelsea's fortunes depend largely on Scolari and how he adapts to the Premiership, because while the on-field talent is there, there's no question in my mind that Scolari is the least capable manager out of Arsene Wenger, Rafa Benitez, and Sir Alex Ferguson. If Scolari makes a seamless transition, Chelsea can make a run at their third title in five seasons and their first Champions League. If his act wears thin like I believe it will, Chelsea will find themselves out of the running in both competitions by February or March.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Premiership Preview--4. Arsenal

2008 hasn't been a great year for Arsenal and their fans. In February, they watched their hated North London rivals Tottenham win a major trophy (Carling Cup), something Arsenal hasn't done since winning the Premiership four seasons ago. They've watched Spurs bring in several high-profile players this summer already and significantly strengthen the team, whereas Arsenal has taken a step backwards with what they've done. As I detailed in an earlier post, they watch in frustration as their manager refuses to pay the going market rate for established players, either in transfer fees or salary, preferring to bring in youngsters and develop them for cheap. Tottenham, on the other hand, has spent money hand over fist for a solid combination of young players and proven veterans of Europe's top leagues.

Many Gunners fans keep the faith in Arsène Wenger and believe that he's the guy; he's the one to do the job. While Wenger certainly has been successful in the past, however, there don't seem to be any signs that he can turn the club's current "funk" around -- it's hard to call perennial top-four finishes, deep cup runs, and a place in the Champions League a funk, but for Arsenal, it is if they don't win anything. Purists of the game may not want to admit it, but soccer is as driven by money now as any other high-level sport in the world. Wenger refuses to spend it, other teams are, and the gap between the "Big Four" and the rest of the pack is getting smaller every year.

There is no doubt that Wenger is a great manager of the talent he has at his disposal. The problem is, though, that he simply doesn't have enough of it to make a serious title push, and while neither do Spurs, Aston Villa, and Portsmouth, those three are all capable of challenging Arsenal for a spot in the Champions League.

Wenger allowed arguably (depending on who you ask) the club's top performer last season, Mathieu Flamini, to go to AC Milan on a free transfer after refusing to increase the young French holding midfielder's wages. Flamini's backup and one of the last links to "The Invincibles", the Arsenal side that went undefeated in the Premiership en route to a title in 2003-2004, Gilberto Silva, left for Panathinaikos. Jens Lehmann, the most experienced, battle-tested keeper on the roster and Arsenal's number one before losing his job to Manuel Almunia last season, returned to his native Germany, going to VfB Stuttgart on another free transfer. Creative attacking midfielder Aliaksandr Hleb, one of the most technically gifted players in the Premiership, was shipped to Barcelona for a hefty profit.

Wenger has brought in three players up to this point, only one of whom will have a major impact on the team's fortunes this season. Samir Nasri is a star-in-the-making and has accomplished a lot in his career, both domestically and internationally, for a player of his age (21). He can play behind the striker/s or on the right wing, though Nasri should do more of the latter in North London. Aaron Ramsey becomes just another name in the dearth of young central midfielders already on the roster -- Fàbregas, Song, Denílson, Randall, etc. -- but appears to have a real future at the Emirates. Amaury Bischoff, who played for France's U-18 team but Portugal's U-20 and U-21 teams, never made a Bundesliga appearance for Werder Bremen, and will be hard-pressed to find playing time in Arsenal's crowded midfield as well.

Midfield is where Arsenal is strongest, though they are also very solid in the back. Fàbregas is a lock in the center, where his superb ball-distribution skills can be used most effectively. Denílson, Abou Diaby, Song, and even Johan Djourou give Wenger complementary defensive-minded options in that postion. With Diaby set to miss a month due to a thigh problem, Denílson should get the nod to partner Fàbregas. The return from knee surgery of Tomáš Rosický in September will give Arsenal a real playmaking threat on the left wing, which will be manned by Walcott to start the year. Nasri has battled a knee injury of his own this preseason, but could be fit to start this weekend on the right flank in Arsenal's first league game of the new campaign. If he isn't, Emmanuel Eboue will play there instead. Bischoff, Randall, Ramsey, Nacer Barazite, Henri Lansbury, and Fran Mérida, all youngsters with a lot of potential, may get a chance to prove themselves in the midfield during the Carling Cup and FA Cup.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Almunia

RB: Bacary Sagna
CB: William Gallas (captain)
CB: Kolo Touré
LB: Gaël Clichy

RMF: Nasri
DMF: Denílson
CMF: Fàbregas
LMF: Walcott

ST: Emmanuel Adebayor
ST: Robin van Persie

Arsenal's season starts tomorrow with the first leg of their Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie against Dutch side FC Twente, managed by Steve McLaren. They'll come back from Holland and not leave London for the rest of August -- they're home to West Brom this weekend, at West London-based Fulham, home against FC Twente in the return leg, and will welcome Newcastle to the Emirates to close out the month.

Their soft schedule continues through September as they should win each of the three league games they'll play: @Blackburn, @Bolton, and Hull City.

The first truly tough game for Arsenal doesn't come until October 29, when they host "the scum", Tottenham, in the first of two North London derbies. The Gunners play Everton 11 days prior to the showdown with Juande Ramos' side, but it's not nearly the same Everton team as a year ago.

After a visit to Stoke City on the first day of November, Arsenal has a four-game stretch that is as difficult a run as any that a Premiership team will face this season. Wenger has to prepare his club for back-to-back home games against Manchester United and Aston Villa, who both were unlucky to not win in the corresponding fixtures last season, and then trips to Manchester City and across London to take on Chelsea to finish November. Out of those four games, Arsenal would have to feel fortunate to take six points.

Another tricky run comes at the end of December, when Arsenal will host Liverpool, go to Villa, and host Portsmouth in the span of eight days. The home advantage should be a huge benefit to Arsenal but remember, Portsmouth and Villa are on the rise and Liverpool stacks up favorably, at least on paper, to Arsenal, so none of those matches will be easy.

January, February, and March shouldn't provide many problems for Arsenal, but they finish the year with four more nightmarish games out of their last six -- @Liverpool, Middlesbrough, @Portsmouth, Chelsea, @Manchester United, Stoke. This stretch could very likely make or break Arsenal's season, provided they haven't dropped out of the title race by then.

Bottom Line: Again, I don't think Arsenal is good enough to win the league this season, and it's put up-or-shut up time for Wenger. He's stuck to this policy of using young players and not breaking the bank for veteran, established guys, which is fine, but he needs to provide some return to Arsenal's fans to justify his approach. I don't want to hear "one more year, wait 'til next year" kind of talk anymore; this is the year, this is it. Arsenal needs to show something this season, because if they don't, they're going to get passed by the field. They have the schedule to do it and the advantage of traveling less because of their geographical location. It all comes down to the players and the manager, and that's how it should be.

Also, I want to make another change to my preview plans. Instead of putting another one out tonight and the last two tomorrow, I've decided to put one out per day, meaning my projected winner will be posted on Thursday. This should provide a little bit more suspense as we get closer to this weekend and the start of the season, and it makes my life easier as a writer. It's the best of both worlds, really.

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Premiership Preview Change of Plans

It's a busy weekend for me, what with the start of the Olympics, the Community Shield tomorrow, and finally attempting to get things organized for my move-in at college in a couple weeks. With those things in mind, I've decided to delay the release of my last four Premiership previews for a couple days.

You'll now be able to find places 4 and 3 on Monday and 2 and 1 on Tuesday. I think the timing is better anyway as we'll be in full Premiership mode early next week with the start of another grueling, entertaining season that weekend.

I may post once or twice before Monday if I see anything in the news that catches my eye, but if not, have a good weekend and the previews will resume on Monday.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Premiership Preview--5. Aston Villa

Aston Villa surprised many neutrals last season, and probably even some of their own supporters, with their 6th-place finish. In 2006-2007, the Villans checked in at a respectable 11th, a nice improvement from 16th the season before. Villa's emergence, led by manager Martin O'Neill, came with one of the smallest, if not THE smallest, first team rosters in the Premiership. Fortunately for O'Neill, that roster was full of fresh legs, and they carried Villa in style to a place in this summer's Intertoto Cup.

The Birmingham-based club has now advanced to the UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round, where they'll meet FH, an Icelandic side that shouldn't provide much more than token resistance. If Villa does what they should do, they'll progress to the First Round proper.

O'Neill realizes he needs a deeper squad to account for the extra slate of games that the UEFA Cup will bring, and to make a serious run at a place in next season's Champions League. To wit, he's added five players and made permanent the acquisition of another, Curtis Davies. At least four of those six players will start for Villa this season, and five will see significant playing time.

Brad Friedel replaces Scott Carson, who had a terrific '07-'08 season on loan from Liverpool, in goal. Full-backs Luke Young (right) and Nicky Shorey (left) were both brought in yesterday for a combined $16 million. Young is the only pure right back on the roster with Olof Mellberg's departure and is coming off a solid season for Middlesbrough. Shorey takes the place of Wilfred Bouma, who started every game for Villa last season but suffered a horrific-looking dislocated ankle in the second leg of his team's Intertoto Cup Third Round tie against Odense BK on July 26. Bouma is scheduled to return just after Christmas if his recovery goes according to plan, but will now have competition for his old place. Curtis Davies' loan deal from West Brom was made permanent for nearly $20 million this summer. He is ahead of schedule on his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon on March 1 at Arsenal, having played 60 minutes in recent back-to-back friendlies. When fully fit, he'll compete with Zat Knight to start alongside Martin Laursen at center back at the very least, and he may very well win the job. Steve Sidwell never should've left Reading two summers ago; he had a season to forget last year at Chelsea, but his career could be revived at Villa.

O'Neill lost only one key piece -- Mellberg. The Swedish international was a fixture in Villa's back line and a rock on the right side. He didn't get forward like a traditional right back, but he won nearly everything in the air and just didn't make mistakes on defense. Carson went back to Liverpool as he was only on loan, and Liverpool wound up selling him straight away to West Brom for a discount price.

Villa is strongest in midfield, where the addition of Sidwell provides some insurance in case Liverpool does end up buying Gareth Barry before the transfer window closes. Ashley Young is a star-in-the-making on the left wing and very underrated by those outside of the club. He'll have more of a free role this season, and look for him to occasionally drift inside behind the strikers. If Barry stays, he'll play in the center. The versatility of Nigel Reo-Coker, a natural center midfielder, will allow him to shift to the right flank to accommodate Sidwell. Reo-Coker is nothing flashy but he's quick and as tenacious a ball-winner as they come. You'll see a few other players out there, though, too -- Shaun Maloney can play on either wing but typically is used to be a spark off the bench, Craig Gardner may get a chance, and Stiliyan Petrov can play either on the right or in the middle. Isaiah Osbourne provides solid cover in the center. Moustapha Salifou is a perfect fill-in for Sidwell. Wayne Routledge, like Maloney, is a speedy little winger but prefers to play on the right.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2/4-3-1-2):
GK: Friedel

RB: Young
CB: Laursen
CB: Knight
LB: Shorey

*RMF/RCMF: Reo-Coker
**CMF/LCMF: Barry (captain)
CMF: Sidwell
*LMF/AMF: Young

ST: John Carew
ST: Gabriel Agbonlahor

*When Villa plays a 4-3-1-2, Young is the "1", with Barry, Sidwell, and Reo-Coker (L to R) as the "3". Because the attack-minded Sidwell is on board and they already have Young, they're more likely to use the 4-4-2. Remember, though, when Villa hit a great run of form towards the end of last year, O'Neill did use the 4-3-1-2.

**If Barry does leave, either Reo-Coker, the current vice-captain, or Laursen will inherit the captain's armband. Reo-Coker will shift into the middle with Sidwell, and either Petrov or Maloney will start on the right. If it's Maloney, Villa will surely use the 4-4-2. If it's Petrov, Villa can play either formation.

It's not as confusing as I know I just made it sound, so don't worry.

Villa has already started their season; they knocked Odense out of Europe as I alluded to earlier. They next play in Iceland against FH on the 14th, and their Premiership season kicks off three days later with an interesting home game against Manchester City. A trip to Stoke City and the return leg with FH follows those two matches. O'Neill's side finishes up the month with another appetizing match at Villa Park, this one against Liverpool. In the corresponding fixture last season, Steven Gerrard won the game late with a magical free kick that was one of the year's best goals.

October brings Chelsea (away) and Portsmouth and Blackburn (both at home), as well as a visit to Wigan, a must-win game for the Villans.

Arsenal and Manchester United headline Villa's November slate, and the "Big Four" opponents come on successive weekends. Home games against Middlesbrough and Fulham should be straightforward, though the game at St. James' Park to start the month is tricky.

Interestingly enough, Villa closes out the season with their most difficult stretch and their easiest stretch back-to-back. In a five-game span that comprises all of March and half of April, they'll play Man City (away), Tottenham (home), Liverpool (away), Manchester United (away), and Everton (home), but they follow that run with West Ham at home, Bolton away, Hull City at home, Fulham away, Middlesbrough away, and Newcastle at home to finish up.

Bottom Line: Holding on to Barry would be a major boost for Villa and at the same time, losing him would be a big loss. The increased number of games that comes with playing in Europe will test Martin O'Neill and the resolve of his team. There is plenty of talent on the roster so expect the team to be in the top six with or without their current captain. If they have him, though, they can compete for 4th place. American chairman Randy Lerner has pledged more money to O'Neill if he wants to go out there and buy a couple more pieces, and I'd expect the manager to strengthen this squad a little bit more in the back.

Premiership Preview--6. Tottenham

The 2007-2008 season was a roller coaster for Tottenham Hotspur. Martin Jol was removed from the manager's post in late October, but only found out through a text message sent to his nephew, who then forwarded the news to the Dutchman's phone. A team that was a trendy pick to break into the top four at Arsenal's expense was sitting around 15th place at the time, and for all the plaudits received by Juande Ramos for the job he did after he took over from Jol, Spurs still only wound up in 11th. They beat Chelsea to win the Carling Cup, but Ramos isn't being paid a whopping $9 million per season for mid-table finishes.

Spurs have undergone considerable change under Ramos, both on the field and off. The Spaniard implemented new dietary and fitness standards to keep his team in the best possible shape. He uses a more rigid, disciplined 4-4-2 than Jol, relying less on individual creativity and making it a team game.

He's turned over the roster from back to front, bringing in eight new players this summer in addition to the four acquired in the January transfer window, while getting rid of eight others this summer, four in January, and loaning several more out. All these moves haven't come cheaply; the net cost to build this new first team is well over $100 million. To be fair, the money spent has brought back some great young talent and potential high-impact returns.

Heurelho Gomes was signed from PSV for around $14 million to be the starting keeper. David Bentley's initial $30 million price tag needs to justified with his play on the right wing. Luka Modrić is a joint club-record signing at $33 million from Dinamo Zagreb, and the Croatian midfielder should play as an attacking midfielder behind the two strikers. Giovani Dos Santos, who has been labeled as "the next Lionel Messi, cost roughly $9.5 million up front, though that figure could rise to $17.2 million based on performance-related criteria, and the deal includes a sell-on clause as well. Dos Santos made the move from Barcelona, who seemed happy to ship the supremely skilled Mexican youngster off because of some well-documented attitude issues, likely relating to the immaturity that comes part-and-parcel with his age. He'll be looking to prove those doubters wrong with his play opposite Bentley.

Only one major piece from a year ago has left White Hart Lane -- Robbie Keane was sold to Liverpool for a total that could end up at just over $40.5 million. The Irish striker scored 23 goals in all competitions last season and 45 combined in the past two campaigns. He formed a lethal partnership with Dimitar Berbatov up front, who will now pair with Darren Bent.

Spurs are undoubtedly strongest in midfield, where they now have eight players who would be legitimate starters for most every other team in the Premiership. Only four, and occasionally five, can play at the same time, however, and three of those spots already seem to be filled up by Bentley, Dos Santos, and Modrić. Of those three, Dos Santos is the one who may not start all the time because Modrić can play on the left as well, which would allow another central player to get a chance. Four central midfielders -- Tom Huddlestone, Didier Zokora, Jermaine Jenas, and Jamie O'Hara -- are essentially competing for one or two spots, with the middle two the clear favorites at this point, especially Zokora. Kevin-Prince Boateng may also figure into that mix, though he's probably going to be resigned to appearances in cup games. Aaron Lennon (remember him?) provides much more pace than Bentley on the right, but Bentley is a superior crosser and is very good on the set piece. Because of this plethora of midfielders, don't be surprised to see Ramos employ a 4-2-3-1 at times throughout the year.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Gomes

*RB: Alan Hutton
CB: Jonathan Woodgate
**CB: Ledley King (captain)
LB: Gareth Bale

RMF: Bentley
DMF: Zokora
AMF: Modrić
LMF: Dos Santos

ST: Berbatov
ST: Bent

*Hutton is out for an indefinite period with a sprained ankle, so expect to see Zokora inserted there to start the season. Jenas would then be shifted to Zokora's role in the midfield.

**It's been reported that because of King's chronic knee problem, he can realistically only play one game out of every three for the rest of his career. When ready, King will start, but you'll be seeing plenty of Michael Dawson as well.

Games against Chelsea (away), Aston Villa (home), and Portsmouth (away) highlight the six-match opening to Spurs' schedule, which also includes must-win home games with Sunderland and Wigan.

October begins in easy fashion for Ramos' side, with visits from Hull City and Bolton sandwiched around a trip to Stoke City. After those three matches, though, comes the first "scum" vs. "scum", North London derby of the season against Arsenal, with this one coming at the Emirates to finish up the month.

The much-anticipated clash with Arsenal is followed in short order by an appearance from Liverpool, a must-watch game as it's Robbie Keane's return to White Hart Lane.

Tottenham hasn't beaten Arsenal in the Premiership seemingly in ages, and hadn't defeated the Gunners in any competition since November 1999 before they thumped Arsene Wenger's kids 5-1 in the second leg of the Carling Cup semifinal last year. Spurs will get their second chance to beat Arsenal in the league on February 7 and get home-field advantage in that game.

Spurs end the year with four tough games in their last five; road games at Manchester United, Everton, and Liverpool are broken up by a winnable home game against West Brom and a tricky home date with Manchester City.

Bottom Line: It's simple -- if all of the new signings brought in by Ramos can adjust to the Premiership quickly, Spurs has the talent to challenge for a place in next year's Champions League; if not, all the optimism in this part of North London will have gone out the window and it'll be yet another disappointment from the club's end. Tottenham has spent the money to contend, now they have to put up or shut up.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Premiership Preview--7. Portsmouth

Just like Manchester City and Everton, Portsmouth is coming off their best season in England's top division in years, and I'm not sure there'd be much argument from the South Coast side's supporters by saying it was the best season in club history. Portsmouth wound up in 8th place, their highest-ever finish in the Premiership (though not in the old First Division). They won the FA Cup for the second time in their 110-year existence, thereby earning a berth in this season's UEFA Cup, the first time Portsmouth will play in a European competition.

It was an amazing year for a team that seemed destined for relegation midway through the 2005-2006 campaign. At that point, Pompey's fortunes changed forever. Wealthy Franco-Russian businessman Alexandre Gaydamak became co-owner of the club in January, which was in the bottom three at the time, and invested money immediately, allowing manager Harry Redknapp, who'd only come back to Portsmouth in December following a short stint at arch-rival Southampton, to bring in much-needed reinforcements. Portsmouth hit a good run of form at the end of the season and managed to escape the drop. Gaydamak then became sole owner in July. The rest, as they say, is history.

The combination of Gaydamak and Redknapp has worked wonders for a small-market side with the smallest stadium in the Premiership in Fratton Park, which seats just over 20,000 people. Gaydamak has financed acquisitions -- Lassana Diarra, John Utaka, Sulley Muntari, David James, Niko Kranjčar, etc. -- that have made Portsmouth a considerably better side, and the $22 million signing of striker Peter Crouch this summer was a club record. Redknapp, for his part, is Portsmouth's most successful manager in terms of win percentage since Bob Jackson in the late '40's-early '50's, and in terms of total wins since George Smith, who was at the helm basically throughout the entirety of the '60's.

Most of Redknapp's big transfer moves have come prior to this summer's window, with the exception of Crouch, of course. He's lost only one player so far, Muntari, though the attack-minded Ghanian midfielder was Portsmouth's best field player last season, his only one in the Premiership. He will sorely be missed, but Inter Milan came-a-calling and offered significantly more money (around $10 million more) than what Portsmouth paid to sign him from Udinese in the first place. Redknapp and Gaydamak couldn't turn that quick profit down, which effectively offset Crouch's signing by half. Crouch and Defoe should form a lethal partnership up front; the pacey Defoe provides explosiveness and will run off balls won down from the air by Crouch, who has great body control and creativity for a man his size. Ben Sahar came on loan from Chelsea, and the Israeli international has made it clear that he intends to challenge for playing time on the front line.

With Muntari's departure, Portsmouth's strongest area shifts from the midfield to the defense, including David James, the league's best keeper last year. Pompey conceded just 40 goals, though James single-handedly kept anywhere from 5 to 10 more out by coming up with an incredible save of some kind. Sol Campbell is the club's captain and heart and soul of the back four. He's joined in the middle by the vice-captain, Sylvain Distin, who started 36 league games last season, an impressive total for a center back. Both men stand at 6'4" and are as physical as they come, so most aerial 50-50's played by the opposing team into the penalty area go for naught. Glen Johnson thrust himself into contention for the England national team with his play at right back, finally living up to the potential Chelsea saw originally when they signed him from West Ham a few years ago. As with Manchester City, Portsmouth's weak link in defense is at left back. Hermann Hreiðarsson occupies the position for Pompey. He's getting on in years (34), doesn't offer much going forward, and can be exploited by speedy right wingers, but he doesn't make too many mistakes.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: James

RB: Johnson
CB: Campbell (captain)
CB: Distin
LB: Hreiðarsson

RMF: Utaka
DMF: Diarra
CMF: Papa Bouba Diop
LMF: Kranjčar

ST: Crouch
ST: Defoe

Portsmouth opens the season with as difficult an August as any team in the Premiership, with games at Chelsea and Everton sandwiched around Manchester United's visit to Fratton Park. It's the second straight year that Pompey has played those two "Big Four" giants in August; they took one point out of a possible six in the last go-around.

September and October are no easy feats either. Portsmouth will see Manchester City (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), and Liverpool (away) -- all European participants -- along with Stoke City and Fulham in must-win home games.

After that tough run to start the year, Pompey will likely have to make up ground and have a perfect opportunity to do just that in November and December. Those two months bring 10 league games, and Redknapp's side can conceivably win 9 of those and take points from all 10. The opponents they should beat: Wigan, Hull City, Blackburn, Newcastle, West Ham (all at home), and Sunderland, West Ham, West Brom, and Bolton on the road. Each of those matches are winnable, so we'll see how Portsmouth does.

The South Coasters have to play Liverpool, Man United, and Chelsea in a four-game stretch in February and early March, an arduous task to say the least.

Portsmouth closes out the season with another straightforward slate of fixtures. Seven of their last eight -- @Hull, West Brom, Bolton, @Newcastle, @Blackburn, Sunderland, and @Wigan -- should be handled without too much difficulty, and a showdown against Arsenal at Fratton Park comes the first weekend of May.

Bottom Line: In terms of net loss and gain, the Muntari-for-Crouch tradeoff won't help or hurt Portsmouth too much. The two bring different skillsets to the table and while Muntari is probably the better player overall, Crouch adds a lot more to the front line, both directly and indirectly, with what he can do. Last season was the first that the majority of the starters had a chance to really get used to one another, and that working relationship should continue to grow in '08-'09. This is a talented bunch, but if Redknapp feels he needs an additional piece or two in January, Gaydamak will provide the money. It'll be interesting to see how much, if at all, the extra UEFA Cup games will affect Portsmouth's play in the Premiership. Expect no worse than another 8th-place finish, but I could see Pompey crawl up the table a bit higher than 7th as well.

Tomorrow I'll preview the teams just outside the top four, both of which have an eye on breaking the traditional stranglehold imposed by England's giants.

Premiership Preview--8. Manchester City

Manchester City's 2007-2008 campaign was their best since rejoining the Premiership after a few years of purgatory in England's lower levels. Manager Sven-Göran Eriksson compiled a very respectable 19-11-15 record in his first year on the job, guiding the club to a 9th-place finish, a trip to the Carling Cup quarterfinals, and a berth in the UEFA Cup through their fair play record.

Things were looking up with the global ensemble -- Elano (Brazil), Martin Petrov (Bulgaria), Vedran Ćorluka (Croatia), Rolando Bianchi (Italy), Javier Garrido (Spain), Gelson Fernandes (Switzerland), and Benjani (Zimbabwe) -- acquired by the Swede either last summer or, in Benjani's case, the January transfer window. The promise of the future, however, wasn't enough for impatient owner and accused human rights abuser and tax evader, among other things, Thaksin Shinawatra. The deposed, then exiled, former prime minster of Thailand relieved Eriksson of his duties in early June.

In effect, Shinawatra said that the job Eriksson did simply wasn't good enough, and then-Blackburn manager Mark Hughes was tapped to take the reins. Hughes was certainly a competent boss for Rovers and knows the surrounding area well, having spent the majority of his playing career at Manchester United and then leading Blackburn, located in suburban Manchester. Now he's back in the city proper and inherits the very solid roster left by Eriksson.

The Welsh manager has made one significant improvement, though, in the form of Jô, a terrific young (21) Brazilian striker with a prodigious strike record at CSKA Moscow, his last club. The transfer fee, a club-record, was undisclosed -- it was rumored to be in the neighborhood of $40 million -- and Jô brings explosiveness and goal-scoring ability that City didn't have in their forwards last season. Israeli international Tal Ben Haim was acquired from Chelsea, likely as cover behind the incumbent starting center backs, Micah Richards and Richard Dunne.

Hughes has trimmed some of the fat off the team as well, both literally and figuratively. Emile Mpenza (released), Georgios Samaras (moved to Celtic), and Paul Dickov (relased) were all part of that disappointing group of strikers a year ago, with those three combining for a miserable two league goals, both scored by Mpenza. To be fair, Dickov was shipped out on loan to two Championship clubs last season, Crystal Palace and Blackpool, but was on City's roster for a short time. Geovanni was a versatile utility player for Eriksson, coming off the bench 17 times in the Premiership, but Hughes opted to release him as well. Andreas Isaakson's injury-plagued tenure at City ended when he left for PSV Eindhoven, though he's no big loss either as Joe Hart has entrenched himself as the starting goalkeeper. After six seasons and 130 league appearances for Sun Jihai, the Chinese full back moved to Sheffield United on a free transfer.

All-in-all, Hughes has clearly improved his squad and lost no one of consequence. The back line, including Hart between the sticks, is his strongest asset. City conceded 53 goals last season, but that total is inflated by the 8 given up against Middlesbrough in the final game of the year. I personally felt like -- and still do -- that that performance was the City players' way of protesting the speculation surrounding Sven's future with the club, which was very much in doubt even then. This group isn't that poor, and the team truly looked as if they were barely going through the motions for the duration of the match.

Richards and Dunne, the club captain, headline the back four. Richards has enormous potential and great ability already for his age (20), and can also play right back, which he does with the England national team. Ben Haim provides capable depth behind the two and is good enough to challenge for playing time if either of the starters' form slips dramatically. At 6'4", Ćorluka isn't a prototypical right back, but he's very, very good and still only 22. He's physical, can get up and down the flank, and has a terrific "soccer IQ", meaning he really understands the game. Hart is just 21 and is regarded as England's keeper of the future, though Scott Carson may have something to say about that. Hart isn't as tall as others at his position, limiting his ability to claim balls in the air, but he makes up for it with his superior positioning. The weak link in City's defense is at left back, where Garrido and Michael Ball, who is best known for stamping on Cristiano Ronaldo's stomach in a Manchester derby two seasons ago, essentially shared the starting role last year. Both like to go forward, but neither chip in much on the attack. Nedum Onouha, another youngster, has sprinter's speed and can fill in in the center or on the right.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Hart

RB: Ćorluka
CB: Richards
CB: Dunne (captain)
LB: Garrido

RMF: Stephen Ireland
CMF: Michael Johnson
AMF: Elano
LMF: Petrov

*ST:
*ST: Benjani

*Jô will miss the start of the season due to his participation in the Olympics for Brazil. Benjani has a thigh strain that could keep him out into September. In their places, you'll likely see Valeri Bojinov and Darius Vassell.

City's UEFA Cup commitment forces them to play five games in August, rather than the three that will be played by most other Premiership clubs. Three of those five come in a six-day span -- West Ham on the 24th, @FC Midtjylland on the 28th in the second leg of their UEFA Cup second qualifying round tie, and Sunderland two days after their return from Denmark. City starts the season at Aston Villa, which will be an interesting game between two European contenders.

September isn't as congested, but it's still difficult. City hosts Chelsea and Portsmouth before traveling to Wigan in a must-win game to end the month.

Liverpool comes to town on the first Saturday of October, the toughest game in a relatively straightforward month that also features Newcastle (away), Stoke City (home), and Middlesbrough (away).

The trend of home games against top teams continues in December, when Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester United travel to the City of Manchester Stadium to face Hughes' men. City also pays visits to Bolton and Hull City in that month and again, those are likely must-win games given the quality of those other three opponents.

It's because of that trend that the second half of City's schedule is tougher by far. Of course the opponents are the same but since the schedule balances out, City has to play each of the league's best teams on their home ground the second time around. The Citizens have to make hay during the first half of the year, which they did last season, because they're probably going to struggle down the back stretch to close things out.

Bottom Line: The defense is very capable, the midfield is above average, but the strikers are where this team will be made or broken. You have to score goals, and a ton of them, to compete with the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa, Portsmouth, and each of those teams has better options up front than City. Jô needs to have a great debut season and carry the load, because I'm not sure how much they're going to get from Benjani, Bianchi, Vassell, and Valeri Bojinov. Shinawatra has shown that he can be quick on the trigger, so if City struggles this year, Hughes may find himself on the way out.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Premiership Preview--9. Everton

As much as Everton fans may not want to admit it, their club will always operate under arch-nemesis and cross-town rival Liverpool. There's no way around it; Liverpool is statistically the most successful team in English history, having won more league titles (18), Carling Cups (7), and European Cups/Champions League trophies (5) than any other club in the country. They're tied for the most UEFA Cup triumphs with three. The Reds won the Champions League again recently, just four seasons ago, reached the '06-'07 final in Athens, and won their 7th FA Cup one year prior. Everton can't stack up with that, so fair or not, they're the city of Liverpool's second club.

However, Everton is coming off their best season in just over two decades. The 1986-1987 campaign will never be forgotten by Evertonians; it was the year in which the Toffees won the old First Division, shared the Charity Shield (albeit with Liverpool), and advanced to the quarterfinals of the Carling Cup. They've had some good seasons since then but nothing that would top last year's 5th-place finish, semifinal appearance in the Carling Cup, and trip to the UEFA Cup Round of 16, where they eliminated in heartbreaking fashion on PK's by Fiorentina.

With that success in mind, those fans have to be disappointed with the summer their club has had so far. Manager David Moyes hasn't brought in any new players, although he did make an effort to sign talented 21-year-old attacking midfielder João Moutinho from Sporting Lisbon. Everton's $23.6 million offer was rejected by the Portuguese side, but it's been made clear that Everton won't give up in their pursuit of the player. Manuel Fernandes returned to Valencia from his second loan spell with Everton, though Moyes has said he'd love to have Fernandes back on loan or permanently if a satisfactory deal could be reached.

An improved offer for Moutinho could be financed by the pending sale of Andy Johnson, Everton's leading scorer in all competitions two seasons ago, to Fulham. If Johnson goes, he'll join Lee Carsley, Stefan Wessels, Bjarni Vidarsson, and Patrick Boyle out the doors of Goodison Park, though of those four, only Carsley's departure could hurt Everton as he started 33 games in the center of midfield last year. Johnson's 9-12 goals a season would be missed as well, and it seems like Moyes is counting on young striker Victor Anichebe to develop on the fly next year.

Everton is strongest in their midfield already, so the additions of Moutinho and Fernandes would only make them even more dangerous. Diminutive right winger Mikel Arteta has returned to Earth with a single goal and 7 assists to his name in the Premiership a season after he broke out with 9 goals and 13 assists, but the Spaniard is still a quality player. Opposite him is another player who is slight of stature, Steven Pienaar.

Pienaar and Arteta are very effective running down the flanks, but someone has to get the ball to them first and without Carsley, you'll see a dearth of players in the middle. When the versatile Phil Neville isn't starting at right back, you'll likely find him in the holding midfield role. Phil Jagielka will probably get more time in that position this year as well with the fully-healthy Leighton Baines at left back, shifting Joleon Lescott back inside. Leon Osman can play anywhere in the midfield four; he started 10 league games in the center and on the right wing last year and also went out left for another six. The most clutch player in the Premiership, Tim Cahill, occupies the area right behind the strikers but may miss the start of the season due to recovery from surgery to fix a recurring metatarsal problem. Cahill is a sure starter when healthy -- unfortunately, he can't seem to stay fit for any long stretch of time.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Tim Howard

RB: Tony Hibbert
CB: Joseph Yobo
CB: Lescott
LB: Baines

RMF: Arteta
DMF: Neville
DMF: Jagielka
LMF: Pienaar

ST: Yakubu
*ST: Anichebe

*Anichebe's inclusion depends on the fitness of Cahill. If the Australian is ready to start the season, Anichebe will probably be relegated to the bench and Cahill would be inserted into the AMF role, altering the formation slightly to a 4-4-1-1.

Everton could see exactly where they stand as a club after their first 10 games. They'll play teams from all areas of the table -- perennial top four sides Liverpool (home), Arsenal (away), and Manchester United (home), UEFA Cup contenders Blackburn and Portsmouth, both at home, and bottom-feeders West Brom, Stoke City, Hull City, and Bolton, all away. Those opponents provide an accurate cross-section of the league, so where Everton lies in the table after those games should provide a good idea as to where they'll end up.

November brings five manageable (my favorite word these days!) fixtures -- Fulham, @West Ham, Middlesbrough, @Wigan, and @Tottenham. Anything around 10 points in those games would be a solid month for the Toffees. That game against Tottenham is the start of four consecutive difficult matches, as Everton will travel to Manchester City in between home games with Aston Villa and Chelsea.

January has trouble written all over it; Everton plays three games in a row against "Big Four" opposition, starting with the second Merseyside Derby, this one at Anfield, followed by a home date with Arsenal and a visit to Old Trafford to play the two-time defending league champions. Before that mini-stretch is a must-win home game against Hull.

Late March and early April brings the last tough run of matches for Moyes and his men. They'll play four tricky matches in five -- @Portsmouth, Wigan, @Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Manchester City at Goodison Park to finish it up. These games will probably determine whether or not Everton makes into the UEFA Cup again.

Bottom Line: Moyes hasn’t done nearly enough to strengthen this squad in my opinion. They have, in all likelihood, another grueling UEFA Cup run to deal with, and the teams around them (Portsmouth, Villa, Spurs, and Man City) have all improved considerably either through new player acquisition, holdover player development, or a combination of both. I’m not sure who is going to replace Johnson’s goals, and if Cahill isn’t healthy, there’s not much firepower and explosiveness on the team aside from Yakubu. There also isn’t much team speed, and the first team roster is too small. Bringing Moutinho in would be a big help, though, and I think you’ll see Fernandes back at Goodison Park at some point in the year. Even so, I can’t see Everton repeating last year’s finish.

Tomorrow is our first venture into the last European places, 8th and 7th. The countdown to the top continues here, so check it out in the morning.

Premiership Preview--10. West Ham

I think it would come as a surprise to many to know that West Ham, not Middlesbrough, not Aston Villa, not any of the promoted clubs, had the highest average of English players in their starting lineups (6.61/11) in the 2007-2008 Premiership season. That surprise symbolizes a commonly-held feeling towards West Ham from outside those associated with the club in one form or another: apathy.

West Ham is the fourth club in London, behind Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham, and ahead of the likes of Fulham, Crystal Palace, Millwall, Charlton Athletic, and QPR. Their status behind those bigger teams means they’re often overlooked by the masses, and the fact that they haven’t won anything lately like those three have only makes matters worse. West Ham flies under the radar; they’re good for an upset or two every season like we saw last year with Manchester United and Liverpool and the year before with United on the final day of the season, but the fact of the matter is they’re a middling Premiership club in a city with tons of other entertainment options, sporting and non-sporting.

This ignorance is a shame, too, because West Ham has fantastic supporters and, at least in my opinion, one of the best, most charming stadiums in the country. The club fights a constant battle to escape the broad shadows left by their North London rivals and Chelsea in the western part of town. The only thing that will get them more exposure outside of East London is success. Until then, interesting statistics like the one I led this preview with aren’t going to be associated with West Ham, simply because the team itself isn’t one of the first that comes to mind when you’re talking about soccer in England.

West Ham finished 10th last year and had an outside shot at qualifying for the UEFA Cup until the final two months of the season, when they essentially packed it in because there was just no way they could vault the four or five teams necessary to make it into Europe.

Manager Alan Curbishley acquired Swiss international Valon Behrami from Lazio in the Hammers’ only big move so far this summer. I dedicated a post to this signing the day it occurred (July 23) so you can check the archives for more detailed analysis of it, but in brief, bringing the young, versatile winger in was a good move for West Ham. He adds Champions League experience to a club that has tasted nothing positive in European competition in a long while, can play either flank and right back if necessary, and stands out from the plethora of wide midfielders already employed by the team.

A few spare parts have left Upton Park; Nolberto Solano was released by Curbishley as he was excess to requirements after Behrami was signed, Bobby Zamora was likely going to be fourth on the striker’s depth chart with the return from injury of Craig Bellamy, and despite John Paintsil’s quality play at the international level for Ghana, he couldn’t break into the starting lineup at right back for West Ham with Lucas Neill on the roster.

Curbishley lost some depth players and really only added Behrami, but this is one of the deepest first team rosters in the Premiership already, so not much tooling around was necessary. The main issue with West Ham, and it's been a huge problem for the past couple of seasons, is the number of injuries suffered by key players. Bellamy missed most of last year with nagging problems in multiple areas. Kieron Dyer’s right leg was broken in two places in only his second competitive game with the club. Julien Faubert’s ruptured Achilles tendon prevented him from making his first appearance until January 12, and he also was plagued by nagging injuries even after that game. A knee injury to Scott Parker cost him two months in the winter (Dec. 29 - Feb. 23). Freddie Ljungberg missed two weeks in January with a hamstring problem, and the list goes on and on.

When everyone is healthy, which is no guarantee with the players on this team, West Ham’s strongest area is midfield. If you’ll notice, all of the injured players I just mentioned are midfielders, aside from Bellamy, and yet capable replacements like Luis Boa Morte, Lee Bowyer, and Matthew Etherington filled in nicely. Mark Noble and Hayden Mullins are steady in the center of the pitch, and those two should again feature in the middle. Parker is a nice asset to have there as well. There’s never been any question of his ability, it’s just been a matter of staying healthy. Faubert and Dyer are capable on the flanks, though it’ll be interesting to see how much (if at all) their injuries from last season will slow them down in the future.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Robert Green

RB: Neill (captain)
CB: Matthew Upson
CB: Anton Ferdinand
LB: George McCartney

RMF: Behrami
CMF: Mullins
CMF: Noble
LMF: Boa Morte

ST: Dean Ashton
*ST: Bellamy

West Ham opens the season in ridiculously easy fashion with an eight-game stretch that could launch the Hammers near the top of the table if they take care of business like they should. They’ll welcome Wigan, Blackburn, Newcastle, and Bolton to Upton Park while traveling to Manchester City, West Brom, Fulham, and Hull City. Six wins in these games is realistic, and even seven isn’t too daunting given the opponents. This is probably the easiest run of fixtures any Premiership team will see all season — no exaggeration.

The schedule balances out, of course, and West Ham will play Arsenal (home) and Manchester United (away) in a two-day span in late October. Starting in early November and lasting all the way to the turn of the new year, the Hammers will face six clubs competing in Europe this season in a nine-game stretch, including Portsmouth twice, with a game at Sunderland and another against Stoke City in East London over that period as well.

That game with Stoke is the first of four in a row that should be pretty straightforward for West Ham. Three of the four are at home — Stoke, Fulham, Hull — and the other is at Newcastle.

Curbishley’s side then closes out the season with five tough games in six overall, with dates at Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Everton going along with home games against Chelsea and Liverpool.

Remember, West Ham has developed a tendency to play very well against big-name, high-profile opposition and follow up those great performances with absolute duds in games they should win. That long run of matches to begin the season will tell me a lot about this team. If they do well, maybe 5-2-1, 6-2-0, 7-0-1, something like that, I’ll begin to take West Ham much more seriously.

Bottom Line: I just said it — West Ham will set the tone for their whole season with the way they start. If they bottle it in those games, any potential upset over a top team is meaningless to me because it’s just a flash in the pan. The Hammers need to show some consistency, and that starts with staying healthy, the other key to their season. Unfortunately, a lot of the players on this team are prone to getting hurt — Parker and Bellamy chief among them. They have enough quality on the roster to make a push towards Europe, but anything like last year’s injury woes will set them back too far.

Update (08/06): Freddie Ljungberg and West Ham agreed to mutual termination of the player’s contract today, so obviously he won’t be in the starting lineup like I’d originally projected when I wrote this article last night. In his place, I’m moving Behrami over to the right and inserting Luis Boa Morte.

*Update (08/07): Bellamy has just picked up yet another injury and will miss the first few weeks of the season. Insert Carlton Cole into Bellamy’s spot alongside Ashton.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Premiership Preview--11. Blackburn Rovers

In his four-season tenure at Blackburn, Mark Hughes guided the club to three top-10 finishes, including 7th place last year, and two appearances in European competition. He compiled an 82-47-59 record in competitive games over that span, and his team conceded over 50 goals only once. It's fair to say that he turned the fortunes of Blackburn Rovers around after their lean years in the late '90's. Hughes accomplished a lot with a small-market club, making his team very competitive without spending a lot of money to do so.

Hughes moved on, earlier this summer, to a better opportunity at Manchester City, where he'll have a bigger stadium to draw fans and more financial backing from the owner. In his place steps Paul Ince, a standout central midfielder in his playing days at Manchester United, Inter Milan, and Liverpool, among others, as well as England's first black captain. I did a post on Ince in the days after he was first hired by Blackburn, so I'm not going to rehash all the smaller details, but suffice it to say that he's been a successful manager at the lower levels with Macclesfield Town and then MK Dons, winning the Johnstone's Paint Trophy and League Two with the latter last season.

Ince has never managed above League Two and has only two seasons of experience in the head coaching capacity, so he certainly needs to justify this appointment to lead Blackburn. Soccer is soccer anywhere you go, I understand that, but going from League Two directly to the Premiership is a quantum leap up in quality and remember, Ince isn't exactly working on a large budget.

He came into the job guns-a-blazing, saying he fully intended to keep his best players. While no one is doubting that to be true, money talks, and Ince has already sold star right winger David Bentley to Tottenham for $30 million up front and Brad Friedel, who spent eight seasons at the Lancashire-based club, appearing in 287 league games in the process, to Aston Villa for $4 million.

Along with Roque Santa Cruz, those two were Blackburn's most valuable players a season ago. They combined to start in 75 of a possible 76 league games between them, with Friedel starting all 38 and conceding 48 goals. Bentley tallied 6 goals and 11 assists in the Premiership, the best numbers of his career. Santa Cruz scored 19 times in 36 starts, an impressive goal-to-game ratio, in his début season for Blackburn but without Bentley's set pieces and crossing ability from open play, there's no way the Paraguayan international would've been that prodigious.

Ince has brought in two players to replace Bentley and Friedel. Paul Robinson, formerly England's number one, was acquired from Tottenham for $7 million. How Robinson is worth more than Friedel is beyond me, seeing as the former is so much more error-prone and hesitant in the air. With that said, though, he was still one of the top keepers on the market and Ince had to snap him up. Carlos Villanueva has come to Ewood Park on loan (with an option to make the deal permanent next summer) from Chilean side Audax Italiano and will try to fill the void left by Bentley. Ince tapped into his Old Trafford roots to bring Danny Simpson in, also on loan, who will challenge Steven Reid and Brett Emerton for playing time. Reid is more naturally a central midfielder, but the addition of Johann Vogel late last season has pushed Reid to right back, at least in Blackburn's summer friendlies. Emerton started 25 games at that position last year, but the 21-year-old Simpson is the only pure right back of the three.

Blackburn is strongest in the back, a trademark of Hughes. There are no standouts amongst the back four; the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They're not spectacular by any means, but they're efficient, sturdy, and get the job done. Stephen Warnock has crafted a nice career for himself at left back away from Liverpool, where he was unlikely to ever be first-choice. He's a guy that can get forward and chip in on the attack if needed. At 6'5", Christopher Samba is an intimidating presence for opposing strikers and can win most every aerial challenge in which he's involved. His partner in the center of defense is usually the club captain, Ryan Nelsen, although Andre Ooijer can play there too and may to start the season with Nelsen representing New Zealand in the Olympics, with Aaron Mokoena another candidate to fill in. Zurab Khizanishvili is good cover in case of injury to any of the starters.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Robinson

RB: Reid
CB: Samba
CB: Ooijer
LB: Warnock

RMF: Villanueva
CMF: Vogel
CMF: David Dunn (vice-captain)
LMF: Morten Gamst Pedersen

ST: Santa Cruz
ST: McCarthy

Blackburn starts the season with two road games out of three in August -- at Everton and West Ham -- with a visit from Hull City in between. Two victories in those games would be a successful month for Ince, and it's important he gets off to a good start.

The Pride of Lancashire then welcome Arsenal, Fulham, and Manchester United to Ewood Park, sandwiched around a trip to Newcastle. That's a difficult stretch for Ince and his boys, even with those three home games.

After a home game against Middlesbrough on October 25, Blackburn hits the road for four of their next six matches, including tough games at Aston Villa, Portsmouth, and Tottenham, all participants in European competition this season.

It gets considerably easier after that, though, with an eight-game stretch comprising most of December and all of January in which it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for Blackburn to take all 24 available points. Why? Well, the road matches aren't too imposing -- at Wigan, Sunderland, Fulham, and Middlesbrough -- and the home fixtures aren't either -- Stoke City, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Bolton. I don't think Blackburn will win all eight games, though I could see a 6-2-0 record there to push Rovers into the thick of things.

They close out the season against West Brom at home, a game that comes after tough assignments at Man City and at Chelsea with Portsmouth coming to town in between.

Bottom Line: For Ince, anything around 10th place would have to be considered an accomplishment in his first season as a manager in England's top flight. Ince needs to readjust the style and quality of the Premiership after spending the last few years as a player and manager in the lower leagues, where the "hoof-and-chase" kickball approach is often employed. Losing Bentley and Friedel could turn out to be a blessing in disguise as it may lower expectations for the club, which is still going to be very competitive.

We'll move into the top half of the table tomorrow, so check back in the morning and early afternoon for the previews.