Premiership Preview--4. Arsenal

2008 hasn't been a great year for Arsenal and their fans. In February, they watched their hated North London rivals Tottenham win a major trophy (Carling Cup), something Arsenal hasn't done since winning the Premiership four seasons ago. They've watched Spurs bring in several high-profile players this summer already and significantly strengthen the team, whereas Arsenal has taken a step backwards with what they've done. As I detailed in an earlier post, they watch in frustration as their manager refuses to pay the going market rate for established players, either in transfer fees or salary, preferring to bring in youngsters and develop them for cheap. Tottenham, on the other hand, has spent money hand over fist for a solid combination of young players and proven veterans of Europe's top leagues.

Many Gunners fans keep the faith in Arsène Wenger and believe that he's the guy; he's the one to do the job. While Wenger certainly has been successful in the past, however, there don't seem to be any signs that he can turn the club's current "funk" around -- it's hard to call perennial top-four finishes, deep cup runs, and a place in the Champions League a funk, but for Arsenal, it is if they don't win anything. Purists of the game may not want to admit it, but soccer is as driven by money now as any other high-level sport in the world. Wenger refuses to spend it, other teams are, and the gap between the "Big Four" and the rest of the pack is getting smaller every year.

There is no doubt that Wenger is a great manager of the talent he has at his disposal. The problem is, though, that he simply doesn't have enough of it to make a serious title push, and while neither do Spurs, Aston Villa, and Portsmouth, those three are all capable of challenging Arsenal for a spot in the Champions League.

Wenger allowed arguably (depending on who you ask) the club's top performer last season, Mathieu Flamini, to go to AC Milan on a free transfer after refusing to increase the young French holding midfielder's wages. Flamini's backup and one of the last links to "The Invincibles", the Arsenal side that went undefeated in the Premiership en route to a title in 2003-2004, Gilberto Silva, left for Panathinaikos. Jens Lehmann, the most experienced, battle-tested keeper on the roster and Arsenal's number one before losing his job to Manuel Almunia last season, returned to his native Germany, going to VfB Stuttgart on another free transfer. Creative attacking midfielder Aliaksandr Hleb, one of the most technically gifted players in the Premiership, was shipped to Barcelona for a hefty profit.

Wenger has brought in three players up to this point, only one of whom will have a major impact on the team's fortunes this season. Samir Nasri is a star-in-the-making and has accomplished a lot in his career, both domestically and internationally, for a player of his age (21). He can play behind the striker/s or on the right wing, though Nasri should do more of the latter in North London. Aaron Ramsey becomes just another name in the dearth of young central midfielders already on the roster -- Fàbregas, Song, Denílson, Randall, etc. -- but appears to have a real future at the Emirates. Amaury Bischoff, who played for France's U-18 team but Portugal's U-20 and U-21 teams, never made a Bundesliga appearance for Werder Bremen, and will be hard-pressed to find playing time in Arsenal's crowded midfield as well.

Midfield is where Arsenal is strongest, though they are also very solid in the back. Fàbregas is a lock in the center, where his superb ball-distribution skills can be used most effectively. Denílson, Abou Diaby, Song, and even Johan Djourou give Wenger complementary defensive-minded options in that postion. With Diaby set to miss a month due to a thigh problem, Denílson should get the nod to partner Fàbregas. The return from knee surgery of Tomáš Rosický in September will give Arsenal a real playmaking threat on the left wing, which will be manned by Walcott to start the year. Nasri has battled a knee injury of his own this preseason, but could be fit to start this weekend on the right flank in Arsenal's first league game of the new campaign. If he isn't, Emmanuel Eboue will play there instead. Bischoff, Randall, Ramsey, Nacer Barazite, Henri Lansbury, and Fran Mérida, all youngsters with a lot of potential, may get a chance to prove themselves in the midfield during the Carling Cup and FA Cup.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2):
GK: Almunia

RB: Bacary Sagna
CB: William Gallas (captain)
CB: Kolo Touré
LB: Gaël Clichy

RMF: Nasri
DMF: Denílson
CMF: Fàbregas
LMF: Walcott

ST: Emmanuel Adebayor
ST: Robin van Persie

Arsenal's season starts tomorrow with the first leg of their Champions League Third Qualifying Round tie against Dutch side FC Twente, managed by Steve McLaren. They'll come back from Holland and not leave London for the rest of August -- they're home to West Brom this weekend, at West London-based Fulham, home against FC Twente in the return leg, and will welcome Newcastle to the Emirates to close out the month.

Their soft schedule continues through September as they should win each of the three league games they'll play: @Blackburn, @Bolton, and Hull City.

The first truly tough game for Arsenal doesn't come until October 29, when they host "the scum", Tottenham, in the first of two North London derbies. The Gunners play Everton 11 days prior to the showdown with Juande Ramos' side, but it's not nearly the same Everton team as a year ago.

After a visit to Stoke City on the first day of November, Arsenal has a four-game stretch that is as difficult a run as any that a Premiership team will face this season. Wenger has to prepare his club for back-to-back home games against Manchester United and Aston Villa, who both were unlucky to not win in the corresponding fixtures last season, and then trips to Manchester City and across London to take on Chelsea to finish November. Out of those four games, Arsenal would have to feel fortunate to take six points.

Another tricky run comes at the end of December, when Arsenal will host Liverpool, go to Villa, and host Portsmouth in the span of eight days. The home advantage should be a huge benefit to Arsenal but remember, Portsmouth and Villa are on the rise and Liverpool stacks up favorably, at least on paper, to Arsenal, so none of those matches will be easy.

January, February, and March shouldn't provide many problems for Arsenal, but they finish the year with four more nightmarish games out of their last six -- @Liverpool, Middlesbrough, @Portsmouth, Chelsea, @Manchester United, Stoke. This stretch could very likely make or break Arsenal's season, provided they haven't dropped out of the title race by then.

Bottom Line: Again, I don't think Arsenal is good enough to win the league this season, and it's put up-or-shut up time for Wenger. He's stuck to this policy of using young players and not breaking the bank for veteran, established guys, which is fine, but he needs to provide some return to Arsenal's fans to justify his approach. I don't want to hear "one more year, wait 'til next year" kind of talk anymore; this is the year, this is it. Arsenal needs to show something this season, because if they don't, they're going to get passed by the field. They have the schedule to do it and the advantage of traveling less because of their geographical location. It all comes down to the players and the manager, and that's how it should be.

Also, I want to make another change to my preview plans. Instead of putting another one out tonight and the last two tomorrow, I've decided to put one out per day, meaning my projected winner will be posted on Thursday. This should provide a little bit more suspense as we get closer to this weekend and the start of the season, and it makes my life easier as a writer. It's the best of both worlds, really.

Liverpool Draws Standard Liège, Arsenal Draws FC Twente in Champions League Third Qualifying Round

Just as its junior brother, the UEFA Cup, conducted a qualifying round draw this morning, the Champions League did as well with its Third Qualifying Round. We won't know the full slate of matchups until August 6, when the Second Qualifying Round finishes up, but the opponents for Liverpool and Arsenal have already been determined. While the two Premiership heavyweights should get through to the Group Stage, it's not going to be easy.

The road to another deep run in Europe's top club competition for Liverpool starts in Belgium, where they'll meet the defending Jupiler League champions, Standard Liège. We saw earlier that American defender Danny Califf and his club, FC Midtjylland, will be playing Manchester City in the next couple weeks, and Standard Liège has another American defender on their roster. Oguchi Onyewu, whose tenure at Newcastle in 2007 was uninspiring to say the least, is now back at Standard Liège, where he's appeared in 135 games since 2004 and been named to the Belgian First Division's Best XI twice and been Foreign Player of the Year once.

Standard Liège's captain is Steven Defour, a 20-year-old future star whose playmaking skills have earned him a starting role in the center of Belgium's midfield. He is probably his club's best player, but his teammate Milan Jovanović has scored 36 goals in 73 league games and is the domestic league's reigning Player of the Year. Alongside Defour in the midfield is Axel Witsel, the reigning Young Player of the Year in Belgium at the age of 19, who scored in his first senior international appearance for Belgium on March 26. You'll also find three Brazilians on Standard Liège's roster, including both starting full-backs and the vice-captain, who can play as a striker or on a wing.

Rafa Benitez has added some pieces to his team in an effort to seriously contend for the Premiership title this season. He'll be without Ryan Babel, Javier Mascherano, and Lucas for this tie as they are all taking part in the upcoming Olympics, but there is more than enough depth in the squad to adequately replace them for a short-term period. Benitez is well-known for tinkering with his lineup anyway, so it's no guarantee that those three would've played in both legs even if they were available.

Arsenal's opponent is also from a Benelux country; FC Twente finished second in the Dutch Eredivisie last year and is now managed by a familiar face to English soccer fans, Steve McLaren. The former Middlesbrough manager and England head coach had been rumored to take over at Twente since early May but was only formally hired on June 20. After the disgrace at Wembley against Croatia, confirming England's non-participation in Euro 2008, McLaren was fired. You can bet he has something to prove to the English media and to the country's fans, but his squad simply isn't good enough to beat Arsenal over two legs.

McLaren has a young Serbian center back, Slobodan Rajković, on loan from Chelsea, and Nikolay Mihaylov on loan from Liverpool. The former will likely start in this tie and have a large role for Twente this year, the latter sits behind 37-year-old club stalwart Sander Boschker on the goalkeeping depth chart but could compete for some playing time. Australian international Luke Wilkshire plays as a center midfielder for Twente, and former Everton youngster Bjarni Viðarsson will factor into the mix in that area as well.

Arsenal should overpower McLaren's team in this tie but because young players typically don't play their best on the road, you could see the Gunners struggle in the first leg. I have no doubt they'll win back at the Emirates, so it's just a matter of what the scoreline reads after the first game.

The following is the complete draw for this round. First legs will be played August 12 and 13, with second legs 14 days later on the 26th and 27th. As always, home teams are listed first, and the score in parentheses is the aggregate heading into the second leg of the Second Qualifying Round:

Anorthosis Famagusta/Rapid Wien (3-0) vs. Olympiacos
Vitória Guimarães vs. IFK Göteborg/Basel (1-1)
Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Domžale/Dinamo Zagreb (0-3)
Schalke 04 vs. Atlético Madrid
Aalborg BK/Modriča (5-0) vs. Rangers/FBK Kaunas (0-0)
Barcelona vs. Beitar Jerusalem/Wisła Kraków (2-1)
Levski Sofia vs. Anderlecht/BATE (1-2)
Standard Liège vs. Liverpool
Inter Baku/Partizan (1-1) vs. Fenerbahçe/MTK Hungária (2-0)
FC Twente vs. Arsenal
Spartak Moscow vs. Drogheda United/Dynamo Kyiv (1-2)
Juventus vs. Tampere United/Artmedia Petržalka (1-3)
SK Brann/Ventspils (1-0) vs. Marseille
Fiorentina vs. Slavia Prague
Galatasaray vs. Steaua Bucureşti
Panathinaikos/Dinamo Tbilisi (3-0) vs. Sheriff Tiraspol/Sparta Prague (0-1)

Winners in this round move on to the Group Stage, in which 16 teams have already booked places through their final league positions last season, including champions Manchester United, Lyon, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSV Eindhoven, FC Porto, Zenit St. Petersburg, Celtic, and CFR Cluj. The draw for the Group Stage will take place on August 28, and once again, you can find full coverage and increased analysis here. Once the draw is made, I'll post my predictions to advance to the knockout stages.

Arsenal Is Now a Selling Club

Every day, I start off the morning surfing around various sites and checking for interesting stories or issues relating to, most often, the Premiership. You all know by now how much I despise the summer (in the soccer world, that is, not in real life) and the gossip used as filler to pass the time until August, when the new season kicks off.

Two leading media outlets in this country -- ESPNsoccernet and CSRN -- have raised the question in recent days of whether or not Arsenal is now a "selling club". Soccernet's Norman Hubbard believes Arsenal could be for the next 20 years (http://soccernet.espn.go.com/columns/story?id=555120&sec=england&root=england&cc=5901), while my colleague at CSRN, Johnathan Starling, takes the opposite viewpoint and doesn't believe Arsenal is a selling club even now.

When you simply look at the Gunners' domestic and international prestige, not to mention the fact that they're a perennial top-four team in the Premiership and a participant in the Champions League, it would be hard not to agree with Starling. More often than not, success doesn't come cheaply, and sustaining success is even harder to do without spending money.

We've seen this in England with Chelsea, a mid-table team until Roman Abramovich bought the club and invested hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars to launch Chelsea to the status it enjoys now. We've seen it with Portsmouth, who you could count on to finish in the lower half of the league until a wealthy Franco-Russian-Israeli businessman, Alexandre Gaydamak, became the sole owner of the club in July 2006. We've seen this here in the States with the New York Yankees and now the Boston Red Sox, and especially in college football and basketball, sports traditionally dominated by larger, public, well-endowed universities.

Upon closer examination, though, Arsenal doesn't fit that same mold anymore. To me, they're still a successful club, although those with different definitions of success have every right to disagree with me, but they're not doing it in the same manner as any of the teams mentioned above.

It seems like too many people attach a negative stigma to the term "selling club", and they're wrong for doing so. Look, soccer is a business just like any other professional endeavor: it's all about the bottom line, money. How much money can you make, or perhaps to put it another way, how much money can you save while not compromising your high standards and still putting a good product out there for the consumers.

There's nothing wrong with being a selling club, just like there's nothing wrong with buying every player in sight if that's what you want to do. It's a personal choice made by those in charge, the ones spending the money.

Arsenal just moved into a new ground, Emirates Stadium, after spending decades at Highbury, which had become a charming but antiquated and out-of-date stadium for the North London club and their large fanbase. It takes a lot of money to build new, state-of-the-art stadiums, and the Emirates was no exception -- cost of construction was roughly $860 million for a stadium that can seat 60,355 people. That may be chump change when compared to the new Wembley Stadium, also in London, which took four years and over $1.5 billion to construct, but still, the Emirates didn't come cheaply.

To pay back the loan required to build the Emirates, Arsenal needs to bring in a surplus of $48 million a year for the next quarter century. Ticket prices are rising every year and fans who love their club will deal with it and pay the extra money, but that alone isn't going to completely repay the debt. Arsenal also has to rely on bonus money from playing in the Champions League and from finishing at the top of the Premier League, not to mention merchandise sales and other financial efforts that are based off the field.

Manager Arsène Wenger has earned a well-deserved reputation over the years of having one of the keenest eyes for talent in the game. He buys players when they're young, often times in their mid-to-late teens, and cheap, then brings them through Arsenal's youth system and, if they develop sufficiently, into the first team. If/when they play well enough at the highest levels, raising their values, and if/when Wenger sees fit, he sells them off, thus making a huge profit on his original investment. He then takes that money and spends it on more young players, and then the cycle repeats itself again. Remember, this is a man who holds a Master's degree in economics; he knows what he's doing.

We've seen this model most recently with Lassana Diarra, who was sold to Portsmouth last winter, but perhaps most famously with Patrick Vieira (signed for $7 million, a relatively large sum by Wenger's standards, then sold to Juventus for nearly $27.5 million) and Nicholas Anelka (signed for $1 million, then sold to Real Madrid only two years later for just over $44.5 million). We're going to see it continue the future with players like Kolo Toure, who was signed for just $300,000 from Belgian club ASEC Mimosas, Cesc Fàbregas, who joined as a 16-year-old from Barcelona, and perhaps as soon as later this summer with Emmanuel Adebayor, who came to Arsenal from Monaco for a reported $6 million but could be sold for anywhere upwards of $50 million.

He is loyal to his players, but only to a certain degree. He'll stick by them when it suits him and the club, but when he believes it's time for them to go, even if they'd essentially devoted their lives to the club and contributed significantly to the club's success like Thierry Henry, Freddie Ljungberg, Robert Pirès, and Martin Keown all did, they go.

Wenger refuses to pay his players a salary that would break his traditional wage structure, meaning that no matter how good Cesc Fàbregas becomes, it's likely Arsenal won't pay him what he could make at that same point in time as, for example, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Barcelona, Real Madrid, or Manchester United. Wenger would rather sell Fàbregas to one of those big clubs and take the transfer fee and replenish the already-thriving youth system he's helped create.

He had the opportunity to raise Mathieu Flamini's wages when other teams became interested, but he declined and let Flamini walk to AC Milan without getting a pound in return. Instead of paying Flamini, a very good holding midfielder with the ability to get forward, what he could get elsewhere, he let his fellow Frenchman go, showing his steadfast desire to stick to his guns.

Wenger beat the likes of Manchester United and Everton to bring in Aaron Ramsey from Cardiff, who's only 17 and, in a not-so-coincidental anecdote, will wear #16 with Flamini's departure. Ramsey is an extremely talened (for his age) center midfielder, which Arsenal have plenty of already, and probably won't play more than a handful of games for Arsenal's first team this season. He may make a couple appearances in the Carling Cup, which Wenger seems to use as a glorified training ground for his young players, but likely won't play in the Premiership. Wenger may or may not be around for many more seasons, but there should be no doubt that if in three or four years, Ramsey could bring a substantial return, he'll be moved elsewhere.

Even the cost of Arsenal's high-profile signing this summer, 21-year-old Samir Nasri, formerly of Marseille, was basically offset by the sales of Aliaksandr Hleb to Barcelona and Gilberto Silva to Panathinaikos. The net sum of players brought in compared to the net sum of players sold is generally very close to equal for Wenger, and rarely does it exceed more than $10-12 million, which is play money these days in the Premiership.

Like I said earlier, this is an interesting issue that had been brought to my attention recently. Arsenal doesn't buy established, big-name players like Chelsea, and won't pay to keep players at the Emirates when they become superstars. It's a personal philosophy that Wenger and club executives clearly believe in, and even if the fans don't agree, it's not necessarily about them. Yes, the club has the responsibility to provide its customers with a capable product, but at the end of the day, those who foot the bill are the ones who get to make the decisions, not those who benefit or don't benefit from those decisions.

In Arsenal's case, a clear pattern has emerged during Arsene Wenger's tenure and it's one that favors young players over veterans, cheap over expensive. It has brought the club success, but the question is, can they maintain that success in a global soccer market fueled by large amounts of money more so now than ever before? We'll see.

Full-Time Thoughts--Liverpool vs. Arsenal (Second Leg)

It's over at Anfield, and as predicted here before the quarterfinal round started, Liverpool has advanced after winning 3-2 tonight. Captain Steven Gerrard stepped up and converted the game-winning penalty just minutes after Arsenal had equalized at 2-2 through Adebayor, who was set up nicely after a terrific solo run by Theo Walcott. That scoreline obviously would've sent the Gunners through on the away goals rule, but a justly awarded spot kick quashed any momentum and good feelings that the North London side had earned back.

Ryan Babel coolly finished a breakaway to seal the deal in stoppage time, and full credit has to be given to Liverpool FC for fighting back the way they did.

Arsenal has to be commended as well for overcoming their 2-1 deficit and when the Togolese striker levelled the match, it looked for all the world like his team would progress.

It was not to be for Arsene Wenger's team though. Liverpool will meet Chelsea, a 3-2 aggregate winner over Turkish club Fenerbahçe, in the semifinals for the third time in four years, but I'll have more on that as we get closer to the tie. The first leg is scheduled for Tuesday, April 22.

We were treated to a fabulous game today. In truth, I think Liverpool had the better of things all match long and if either of those teams were going to win, it was going to be the Reds. Arsenal didn't look the same after Mathieu Flamini had to be taken off due to injury right before the first half ended, whereas Liverpool got stronger as time went on.

I’m curious to hear what Monsieur Wenger has to say about the penalty decision so close to full-time. To me, it wasn’t even that close. Babel was hauled down from behind and could’ve fallen several strides before he actually went down, and I respect the fact that he didn’t dive.

Congratulations to Liverpool on the victory and credit to Arsenal for making this such a good game. The Gunners had their chances and didn’t take them. In the end, that will haunt them more than anything.

Halftime Thoughts--Liverpool vs. Arsenal (Second Leg)

I'm typing this as sort of a live blog as the game goes on, so yes, there are a few contradictions but soccer is a game that can change very quickly.

• Clever stuff from Derek Rae right before kickoff...“most anticipated end to a trilogy since Return of the Jedi.” Quality.

• Good to see Peter Crouch rewarded for his great game last weekend with a start today. Yes, it changed the shape that Liverpool has been successful with recently, but Crouch deserved a run-out. Rumors of a slight knock for Babel also played into Benitez’s decision.

• VERY shaky first few minutes for Liverpool; if only Arsenal could’ve stayed onside and shown some composure, the Gunners could’ve had a precious early away goal sooner than they got one.

• Gerrard is playing wide left in name only. He’s roaming a fair bit, which is fine because Alonso and Mascherano are back there to clean everything up.

• Reina should’ve saved Diaby’s goal. Diaby struck it very well, but Reina needed to get more of his body behind the ball, preferably a hand, and at least deflect it somewhere else. No excuse for getting beat at the near post.

• Adebayor is running Hyypia ragged. Can’t understand why Hyypia is even starting; Carragher matches up better against Adebayor physically and Steve Finnan is a natural right back.

• Correct decision in not awarding Liverpool a penalty when Kuyt went down in the box midway through the half. Arsenal didn’t get a close call last week; Liverpool wasn't going to get one this week.

• Hyypia’s goal means he’ll probably be at Liverpool until he’s 57 years old. Might as well hand him a long-term contract right now. Just joking, of course, but he’s been a loyal servant to the club and although he’s lost more than a step defensively, his goal today was hugely significant.

• Losing Flamini is a big blow for Arsenal. Gilberto gives the Gunners basically nothing going forward and has shown his age this season. He’s not nearly as quick as he used to be and while he is certainly experienced, Liverpool can exploit him if they’re patient enough with the ball.

Full-Time Thoughts--Arsenal vs. Liverpool

It’s all over in North London and after the first leg, Arsenal and Liverpool are level 1-1 on aggregate and will settle things at Anfield in six nights’ time. Briefly, here’s what I thought of today’s game:

• First of all, it should be said, and I know I’m stating the obvious, that this was a proper game of soccer. Both teams laid it all on the line and we saw a little bit of everything, from goal-line clearances, good, clean challenges, two well-crafted goals, and solid refereeing.

• Liverpool were extremely fortunate to get out of the Emirates with a 1-1 draw, and now they’ll head home in command of the tie. Arsenal had more chances and dominated possession in the second half, but couldn’t capitalize. They huffed and huffed, but couldn’t blow the Liverpool house down.

• William Gallas and Dirk Kuyt were terrific for their respective sides. Gallas compeletely neutralized the world’s most in-form striker at the moment, Fernando Torres, and was everywhere in the back for Arsenal. You’ll never hear anyone say Kuyt has a lot of natural talent and skill, but he’s the hardest worker on the field whenever he plays and Liverpool needed every ounce of his determination and energy today. Oh yeah, and he scored the Reds’ goal. Not too shabby.

• The Dutch referee, Pieter Vink, made the correct decision in not awarding a penalty for the Kuyt/Hleb incident in the second half. Sure, Kuyt had his arms on Hleb, but the Belorussian went down pretty easily and to be honest, wasn’t looking to score as much as he was looking for a penalty. I will guarantee you that there are Premiership referees who would’ve given a PK, because I’ve certainly seen them give penalties for less, but more so because they tend to give in to home crowds on questionable calls. Vink was looking right at the situation and had a clear view of it; he made the decision, and that’s it, end of story. It’s a talking point, but that’s all it is.

• Bringing Yossi Benayoun on for Ryan Babel was a complete waste of a substitution. Benayoun is a central midfielder; I don’t care that he's played on the wing this season for Liverpool, he’s a natural central midfielder. He doesn’t offer you pace and two-footed ability like Babel does, and Kolo Toure’s job on the right side became that much easier when Benayoun was brought into the game.

• Other than his run to set up Kuyt’s goal, Steven Gerrard really didn’t have much of an impact on the game. He made a couple of nice passes and won a couple of corner kicks, but I just didn’t see the same player who’s made his reputation off thriving on European nights. He’ll have to come up big for Liverpool next Tuesday night.

• On the other hand, Arsenal’s talisman, Cesc Fabregas, didn’t have a particularly good game either. Javier Mascherano and Xabi Alonso really limited the amount of time Fabregas had on the ball and closed him down very well. His long balls, which he’s known for, were constantly being hit 4-5 yards past where they needed to be to give Adebayor, van Persie, and Bendtner a chance to do what they do best: score goals.

• I don’t want to hear any more plugs from ESPN to take part in Derek Rae's chat session on ESPN Soccernet; I like the guy a lot and think the world of him as a play-by-play man, but I have no interest. Thanks anyway.

• As I said, Liverpool now controls their own destiny. A 0-0 draw next week will suit them just fine, and the 12th man that is the crowd at Anfield will be roaring. Can Arsenal’s inexperienced (not young) team, at least on the European stage, cope with it? We’ll see.

It will be very interesting to see the lineups that Arsene Wenger and Rafa Benitez field for their league game this weekend. Arsenal needs every single point that they can get as they’re trying to hunt down Manchester United for the league title, while Liverpool are seemingly secure in 4th place. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Benitez opts to rest Torres, and possibly Carragher and/or Gerrard, to have them all 100% for the second leg, but Wenger has to go with a full-strength team because Arsenal likely needs to win the rest of their Premiership games.

In today’s other Champions League game, Turkish side Fenerbahçe made me look good on my prediction yesterday by beating Chelsea at home 2-1. I don’t think they’ll be able to hold that lead at Stamford Bridge next week, but I’ve been very impressed with Fenerbahçe’s run in this competition and they’ve given their fans a lot to cheer about. They’ve put Turkish soccer on the map, and in the southeastern Europe/Balkan region, that league is clearly tops.

Halftime Thoughts--Arsenal vs. Liverpool

• It’s been a tale of two halves; Arsenal had the better of things and were in control for the first 20 minutes or so, and Liverpool came alive for the last 20-25 minutes.

• Very impressed with Liverpool’s immediate response to Adebayor’s goal. Once again, Steven Gerrard, the captain, put the team on his back and came up with a nice run and low cross for Kuyt to finish.

• Ryan Babel needs to continue to run at Kolo Toure. I said this in my “keys to the game” yesterday, and when Babel did use his speed on the left wing, he was fairly successful. Toure can’t match him step-for-step, and I’d expect to see Babel wear him down gradually in the second half.

• Pepe Reina is a fine, fine goalkeeper, but his relative lack of height for a goalkeeper puts him at a disadvantage on corners and free kicks. Arsenal needs to keep pumping the ball into the area, where Adebayor is having his way with Hyypia and Skrtel right now.

• Speaking of Hyypia, I have no idea why he is in the lineup. He is 34 years old now and has lost more than a step. He was exploited by Adebayor on the first goal and as I said, Arsenal needs to take advantage of Hyypia through the air and on the ground with pace.

• Jamie Carragher despises playing right back, but he does a good job there and it shows how much he cares about Liverpool FC by playing out of position for the team. With that said, him not being in the center allows Adebayor to win balls more easily in the air and I have a feeling Bendtner will be brought on as well.

• 1-1 clearly favors Liverpool, so Arsenal will have to push for a second goal. That should make for a great second half.

Champions League Quarterfinal Preview--Part 2

Yesterday, we took a brief look at the ties that will start tomorrow afternoon here in the US. Today, we'll look at Wednesday's games. Once again, my picks to advance to the semifinals are highlighted in bold.

1. Arsenal vs. Liverpool: Don't let Arsenal's comeback to beat Bolton this weekend fool you; the Gunners aren't playing well right now and they couldn't have been happy with drawing the European buzzsaw that is Liverpool in this round.

For Arsenal to win this tie, they must hold serve at the Emirates on Wednesday and either come away with a win or a scoreless draw. If they lose to Liverpool at home or concede in a draw, or perhaps even concede in a one-goal loss, the Reds will take that positive result back to Anfield, grind the second leg out, get the job done, and advance. You don't go into the home of England's most successful European club and come away with anything, it's that simple, at least in the Champions League. A European night at Anfield is a special, special sight to behold and the inexperience of Arsenal could be exploited there.

What are the keys for both teams? For Arsenal, as I said, they likely need to win on Wednesday.

"Well duh, but how do they do that?" Liverpool can be beaten on the wings. It's nearly impossible to penetrate through the likes of Gerrard, Alonso, and Mascherano in the middle, but Babel and Kuyt are fairly limited defensively. Unfortunately for Arsenal, those two players have just as much speed, although Kuyt perhaps a little less so, than the players (Walcott/Eboué and Rosicky) Arsene Wenger will play on the flanks. If those guys can whip balls in to Adebayor and/or Bendtner, it could come down to an aerial battle between Carragher and Skrtel and the Arsenal strikers. Personally, I'd take the Liverpool defenders, but that's just me.

For Liverpool, Ryan Babel needs to have a big game. No Bacary Sagna, who is out with an injury, on the right side likely means that either Justin Hoyte (average at best) or Kolo Touré (out of position) will be pressed into action and will have to deal with the Dutch winger. Babel has the strength to beat Hoyte one-on-one and the pace to beat Touré. If he can force his way to the byline and inside the box, that havoc will create chances all day for the most in-form striker in the world right now, Fernando Torres.

Prediction: This tie may have extra time and penalties written all over it, but I can see Liverpool getting it done in 180 minutes. With that said, I can see Arsenal doing the same but based on the Reds' European exploits and the fact that they have a better two-leg manager, I'm going with Liverpool. 0-0 in the first leg, 2-1 in the return leg at Anfield -- 2-1 aggregate

2. Fenerbahçe vs. Chelsea: I'll tell you right now, Fenerbahçe aren't going down without a fight. They will make Chelsea work for the entirety of this tie and it's not as cut-and-dry as one may think.

Usually the team who hosts the second leg has the advantage; in this case, however, I don't agree. No one, and I repeat, no one, wants to travel to Istanbul in front of the rowdy Turkish crowd and play. It's important that Fenerbahçe come out strong on Wednesday and take something positive back to Stamford Bridge. They need to set the tone in this tie and dictate to Chelsea how it is going to be played. Remember, this is a team that beat Inter Milan in this competition already, and say what you want about Milan's recent dip in form, that was still a hugely impressive result and one that shouldn't be discounted.

Chelsea was extremely fortunate to beat Middlesbrough this weekend, and they've been giving up a lot of chances in the past couple of weeks. There are goals to be had for Fenerbahçe, but they must convert their opportunities and that's something Middlesbrough couldn't do. Then again, there is a reason that Fenerbahçe are in the Champions League and Middlesbrough are..well, they're Middlesbrough.

In much the same fashion, Chelsea are going to get their fair share of chances as well against a Fenerbahçe back line that conceded five goals in two games against Sevilla in the Round of 16. The Blues possess a multitude of quality attacking players, and I would expect them to do their job and bury a couple balls into the back of the net.

I have to be honest, I haven't been able to find much information on this but if Roberto Carlos is healthy again, he'll give Fenerbahçe a big boost on the left side. The former Brazilian stalwart was named as one of the 125 best living players by Pelé in 2004 and still possesses a lethal left foot. He missed both games of the Sevilla tie, I believe, and Fenerbahçe could really use him back for this quarterfinal round.

Prediction: Fenerbahçe are a team with nothing to lose, having already exceeded expectations in reaching this stage of the competition. I expect them to play like at home on Wednesday and pull off a 2-1 win to give themselves a chance heading back to London. Chelsea doesn't score a ton of goals, so it could be a little tighter than desired, but the Blues will get it done at the Bridge. 2-1 in the first leg for the Turkish side, 3-1 in the second leg for Avram Grant's men -- 4-3 aggregate

Not-So-Bold Prediction: Arsenal Will Finish Trophyless

I think we can all agree that there is no way Arsenal is going to win the Premiership this year, which is something I said before Christmas, even when Arsenal were playing incredibly well and sat on top of the table. Going winless in five straight league games, particularly at this point in the season, like Arsenal has done can effectively end any team’s title hopes with the top-heavy structure of the Premiership.

The six point gap between the Gunners and defending champions Manchester United isn’t a huge problem in itself, but the fact that Chelsea is now sandwiched between the two teams complicates things and so does the fact that Arsenal has to visit Old Trafford on April 13, where United has lost only once all season. If Arsenal was to win that game, then we could talk, but I just don’t see it happening. Even if they did win, they’d still need to make up another three points on United, and with opponents like Middlesbrough, Blackburn, West Ham, and Wigan still remaining for the Red Devils, that’s not likely. United also has a far superior goal differential than Arsenal, and although it’s the silliest, most ridiculous tiebreaker I’ve ever heard of, it still is the tiebreaker.

Ok, so as I said, it’s highly unlikely that Arsenal will win the Premiership. As the Gunners have crashed out of both the FA Cup and Carling Cup, that leaves the Champions League as their last chance at silverware this season.

Their opponent in the quarterfinal round is Liverpool, who, despite all of their flaws in the Premiership, are EXTREMELY difficult to beat in the Champions League and will give Arsenal fits. In fact, I believe Liverpool will knock Arsenal out but to be fair, I’ve been wrong on numerous occasions before.

Arsene Wenger has never won a Champions League or a UEFA Cup as a manager, although he has a runner-up finish in both competitions. Rafa Benitez is well-known as a master tactician in Europe and has both a Champions League title and a UEFA Cup title to his name, the latter of which came at Valencia.

As a team, Liverpool has more Champions League experience (by far) than Arsenal with Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher, Jose Reina, Xabi Alonso, Steve Finnan, and others on the roster. Unlike AC Milan, another team with plenty of experience in Europe’s biggest club competition, Liverpool isn’t full of players in their 30’s who just can’t match Arsenal’s pace and quickness.

Oh, and don’t for a second underestimate the advantage of Anfield on a European night. The Scousers will be rocking and singing “You’ll Never Walk Alone” until the cows come home, and I’m not sure if Arsenal will be able to overcome the emotion of the crowd when the two teams meet.

No, I just don’t think Arsenal will progress past Liverpool. If they do, well done, jolly good and all that, but then they’d have to deal with Chelsea, and we saw what happened when those two teams met on Sunday. Avram Grant looks as if he’s starting to understand this whole managerial thing and he’s picking the best lineup to give his team a chance to win, something he hasn’t always done.

Arsenal will finish the year trophyless. Ordinarily, that would be OK; you wouldn’t even need a full hand to count how many teams actually win something in Europe’s top three domestic leagues, the Champions League, and the UEFA Cup and not winning doesn’t, by any stretch of the imagination, mean you had a bad season. However, with the way Arsenal started the year, you would have to say it would be a disappointing season if Arsenal were to not win any silverware.

No, the Emirates Cup doesn’t count, nice try.

Another 4-4 Draw for Chelsea, Tottenham

What a remarkable game.

This 4-4 draw was the second of its kind for both Spurs and Chelsea this season; remarkably, Aston Villa was the opponent for both London clubs in their other 4-4 game. Spurs also drew 3-3 with Fulham and beat Reading 6-4 earlier in the year, showing their knack for high-scoring contests.

Tottenham very nearly won the game today in second half injury-time, but Chelsea keeper Carlo Cudicini denied Dimitar Berbatov from close range. It was a chance on which I would've bet my house on the Bulgarian striker scoring, so luckily I couldn't make it to Vegas to place a wager.

I thought that Ashley Cole should've been sent off for that horrible challenge on Alan Hutton right before the first half ended, and somehow he walked away with only a yellow card. I'm sorry, but if you're going to give a red card to Jason Koumas for his tackle last weekend, which was a joke in itself (the red card, not the tackle), then surely Cole should've been dismissed as well, no question about it. Did I miss something, or was Hutton's shin almost snapped in half? Come on.

Not only that, but John Terry, Frank Lampard, and Didier Drogba all should've been booked for dissent after they followed referee Mike Riley for nearly 20 yards after Riley kept backing away and calling for Cole. I don't care that John Terry is the captain; you can't show up the referee like that. Lampard and Drogba certainly had no business getting in Riley's face either. All of this after the FA came out today with a "respect the referees initiative". Please!

Oh, and then Robbie Keane gets a yellow card for opening his mouth a little bit just after that? It's a joke! Keane gets a yellow card for saying something 10 yards away, and the three Chelsea players get away scot-free. Mr. Riley, take yourself and your big nose right off the soccer field and don't come back, thanks. He has no business being a Premiership referee if he's going to be as inconsistent as he was today.

With the way the game went, I think both teams will gladly take the point and live to fight another day. Chelsea really squandered an opportunity to make it a three-team title race and will now have to beat Arsenal this Sunday to get back in contention, but a point is better than nothing and that is very nearly what Chelsea got out of this match.

Manchester United took care of business against Bolton with a 2-0 victory at Old Trafford, putting the Red Devils three points up on Arsenal with eight games to go. I'll tell you right now, as long as United don't get beat by Arsenal at Old Trafford on April 13, the Premiership trophy will be heading to Manchester for the second year in a row.

Can't Wait for Sunday

Not that I'm complaining, but the Premier League isn't fooling anyone. Somehow with their so-called "random" schedule, Sunday will be the second time this year that the "Big Four" will play against each other. Manchester United will host surging Liverpool at Old Trafford and Chelsea will have their chance to reel in suddenly slumping Arsenal as the Gunners head across London to Stamford Bridge.

Not only will the "Big Four" be in action on Sunday, they're the only four teams playing and it just so happens that fans across the world will be able to watch both games in their entirety, with Man U-Liverpool kicking off at 9:30 AM ET here with Chelsea-Arsenal to follow at noon.

I have no problem with this at all, believe me. None. But come on, the Premier League should at least be up front with the public that these games were scheduled like this intentionally. Don't try and tell us that everything is random and computer-generated; it insults our intelligence and no one is buying it. "Super Sunday x2" should be fun to watch and the media hype around it is well-deserved, but it reeks of an unnecessary money-grabbing ploy.

I'll be watching soccer on Sunday, but it's also that time of year...

It's time for March Madness, baby!

That's right, Sunday brings the second batch of Round of 32 games in the NCAA Tournament and for those who haven't witnessed the spectacle that is college basketball in March, trust me, it is the best, most passionate single sporting event of the year, bar none.

I fully expect you all to tune in to CBS after you're finished watching the Premiership action on Sunday for a great day of college basketball. Don't even get off your couch.

I can't wait for the weekend.

Champions League Quarterfinal + Semifinal Draw--Live

No time for intros, I'm doing homework at the moment and have class at 9 this morning, so I'm just going to list what's been drawn so far. The quarterfinal ties are scheduled to be played April 1/2 and 8/9, and the semifinal ties are scheduled to be played April 22/23 and 29/30. More analysis later.

Quarterfinal round; first leg home team listed first; Premiership teams highlighted in bold:

Arsenal vs. Liverpool
AS Roma vs. Manchester United
Schalke 04 vs. Barcelona
Fenerbahçe vs. Chelsea

Semifinal round; same things as before apply:

Arsenal/Liverpool vs. Fenerbahçe/Chelsea
Schalke 04/Barcelona vs. AS Roma/Manchester United

My Dream Champions League Quarterfinals Draw--Part 1

The real Champions League draw for the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final will take place tomorrow in Nyon, Switzerland, and for the first time in the competition, teams from the same group or country can be paired against each other. It's likely that we'll get a few duds and also a few exciting ties; that's just how it usually turns out. UEFA says that these draws are random, which I'm not necessarily questioning, but it seems like the same teams are always drawn against each other and things have appeared a little fishy at times...

For now though, he's my dream draw for the next round of the Champions League:

1. Arsenal-Fenerbahçe: Both teams play an attacking style and are capable of scoring multiple goals in any given game, something that can't be said about every team left at this stage in the competition. I'd be interested to see how Arsenal handles the raucous crowd in Istanbul, which is a different beast altogether than than the one they encountered at the San Siro last week. I don't doubt that the Gunners would go through in this tie, but Fenerbahçe would certainly give them a good game in Turkey and both legs would have goals in them. The winner of this tie would go on to face the winner of...

2. Manchester United-Roma: A rematch of last year's quarterfinal which Manchester United won 8-3 on aggregate, using a 7-1 thrashing at Old Trafford to overcome a 2-1 deficit from the first leg. This is a different Roma team though, and their leader, Francesco Totti, is playing out of his mind right now, and Manchester United looked pretty shaky at times against Lyon in both legs of their Round of 16 encounter. Would Roma have the firepower to overcome United? I'm not sure, and a lot would depend on how Totti performs.

Check back later for my other two dream pairings.

Full Credit to Arsenal

The title of this post says it all.

I’ve criticized Arsenal and manager Arsene Wenger a lot recently, although there was every reason for me to do so.

Today, there’s nothing for me to do but salute the Gunners’ performance in Milan, as they beat the hosts 2-0 and advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals. This was a match that Arsenal had the better of from start to finish and while the final scoreline may be a bit flattering, there is no doubt that Arsenal deserved to win. They had more chances and created more going forward than Milan, and it’s as simple as that.

It’s time for me to eat a bit of crow and I will do so. I picked Milan to win this tie and prove that experience was more important than youth, something I still believe regardless of this result but will have to question more when the case arises again.

Great result for Arsenal and as I said, they were the better team on this day.

I would be remiss to not also salute Paolo Maldini, who played his last European match for AC Milan today. Maldini has been a great servant to the club and has played in over 1,000 competitive games for the Rossoneri, which is unheard of today. Along with Franz Beckenbauer, I believe Maldini is the best central defender in international history.

Upset Alert

Alright, maybe this wouldn't be as big of a surprise as some people would think, but I like Aston Villa's chances to go to the Emirates and beat Arsenal on Saturday.

Martin O'Neill's young side has only lost twice on the road this season, and they gave Arsenal everything they had and more at Villa Park back on the 1st of December, although they lost 2-1. Villa is fully healthy as well, which counts a lot at this point in the year.

Arsenal aren't exactly playing too well right now as they're winless in their last three games. Emmanuel Eboue will be suspended for this match (frankly, Eboue is one of the dirtiest players in the league), and creative midfielder Tomáš Rosický is still out with a hamstring injury. There is also the question of whether or not the Gunners will be up for this game after the devastating injury to Eduardo da Silva last week.

I've got Villa returning the favor and continuing their quest for 4th place with a 2-1 victory.

Also, make sure to tune in to the Portsmouth-Everton game on Sunday. Both teams have legitimate European aspirations and the three points would be huge in a game of this significance.

Arsene Wenger Wants Lifetime Ban for Taylor

In the words of José Mourinho's puppet character on "I'm On Setanta Sports", shut up, Wenger.

For those of you who haven't seen the gruesome pictures or seen video, Arsenal front man Eduardo da Silva had his left leg nearly snapped at the ankle after a sliding challenge from Birmingham defender Martin Taylor. It took nearly ten minutes for trainers and medical staff to get da Silva off the field, and all reports indicate the Croatian has a badly broken leg. It didn't exactly take a genius to come to that conclusion as anyone who has seen what happened could diagnose the injury instantly.

It would be irresponsible at this point to speculate as to how long da Silva will be out, but Arsene Wenger has said that "His injury is very, very bad. More than the season is over."

The Frenchman also said "This guy (Taylor) should never play football again. What is he doing on the football pitch?"

"I've gone along with the idea for a long time that to stop Arsenal, you have to kick Arsenal. I knew that was coming for a long time now."

Here's where I have a problem with Wenger. There is simply no way Taylor is going to get a lifetime ban, no way. There was no malice whatsoever in the challenge, no intent to injure like we've seen in the past with some of Roy Keane's attacks on opponents when he was still a player. On the match broadcast, play-by-play man Jon Champion even said he wasn't sure if Taylor should've been sent off.

Personally, I thought it was a red card and the automatic three-match ban that comes with it is deserved. Anything more than that would really be harsh on Taylor because the reality is that this was just a freak incident. It was a mis-timed, late tackle. I've seen numerous tackles similar to this one in the past that haven't even been red-carded. I think it's wrong for Wenger to call for a lifetime ban for Taylor simply based on the extent of the injury to da Silva.

It's not as if Taylor is a repeat offender and has a reputation for causing incidents like this. He showed remorse immediately after the challenge; as Birmingham boss Alex McLeish said, "Martin's distraught about the lad's injury. It's certainly not in Martin Taylor's make-up at all to commit a malicious tackle."

In the NHL, a player can be given a two-minute penalty for high-sticking if he gets his stick in an opponent's face and makes contact, but four minutes if that same incident draws blood. That's just ridiculous; you can't additionally penalize something because of a freak injury, or drawn blood in the case of hockey. It's not fair to overreact to how badly someone is hurt because of a challenge, I believe you have to look at the challenge itself in a vacuum and go from there. With that said, make no mistake. I'm not condoning what Taylor did today by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm also not condemning him for it either.

If I was Arsene Wenger, who has a well-deserved reputation for being a sore loser and a whiner, I would worry about my own team instead of Martin Taylor. Wenger's star young left back, Gaël Clichy, was directly at fault for giving up Birmingham's late equalizer through his lack of focus and poor judgment and decision-making. These two points dropped could end up being what loses the title for Arsenal, yet after the game, Wenger is talking about the opposition and not saying anything about his own team.

Taylor's fate isn't in Wenger's hands; he's just wasting his time by chipping in his own two cents about the situation. I don't want to hear this man in public anymore. He doesn’t say anything chastizing or harsh when his players, like Eboue and Flamini, go in recklessly on challenges like they’ve done in the past month or so, either nearly causing or actually causing serious injury, but when someone from another team does the same thing to a player on his team, he gets up in arms and has a fit. I’m sorry, I don’t have any time for that and it is embarrassing.

Shut up, Wenger!

Interesting Poll Question Results

This week's poll question asked you all which Premiership team left in the Champions League did you believe had the best chance to win the whole thing.

I put out this question before the Round of 16 first legs on Tuesday and Wednesday, and half of the eight votes received came before those games. Curiously enough, no one voted for Liverpool even though they beat Inter Milan 2-0 and are clearly in the best position to advance out of their fellow "Big Four" teams.

Four people chose Manchester United, who were also my picks to win this competition. I'm beginning to rethink that a little bit because if the Red Devils are ever forced to play without Cristiano Ronaldo and/or especially Wayne Rooney, they are extremely vulnerable to defeat.

Chelsea and Arsenal got two votes each and both of these teams, particularly Arsenal, are not locks to even make the quarterfinals.

Thanks for the feedback, everyone. I've put a new poll question out, so take a second and vote if you could.

FA Cup 5th Round Recap

Seven out of the eight FA Cup 5th Round ties were settled this weekend, with only the Middlesbrough-Sheffield United pairing in need of a replay. That match will come at the Riverside on the 26th, but both teams will be in the hat for tomorrow's quarterfinal draw.

Two surprise teams will be joining the aforementioned sides and the other five winners in that draw.

Barnsley, currently sitting in 14th place out of 24 in the Coca-Cola Championship, shocked Liverpool at Anfield by coming away with a 2-1 victory, a match which I covered in my last post.

The lowest-placed team left in this tournament, Bristol Rovers, hosted Southampton and won 1-0 on an 84th minute free kick from Richard Lambert. The Pirates are in 13th place out of 24 in League One right now and were only promoted to England's third-tier league last May after defeating Shrewsbury Town 3-1 in the League Two Playoff. This is a team who has now defeated at least one team in every division of the Football League in this year's FA Cup. They're riding the wave of success and have become the sentimental favorites to win this competition.

Portsmouth were fortunate to escape Preston with a 1-0 win as it took a 93rd minute own-goal to save the South Coast side from a home replay. David James showed why he's been selected as England's number one goalkeeper with a PK save on the hour mark. The most compelling storyline of the game didn't even come to fruition; David Nugent wasn't fit enough to play for Pompey in what would have been a return against the club for which he starred before moving on last summer.

Manchester United sent a convicingly strong message to Arsenal in a 4-0 home victory for the Red Devils. Arsene Wenger played a nearly full-strength lineup so there can be no excuses about that, and United showed that they're a different team when Wayne Rooney is on the field. The title race is not over yet; Arsenal will have to go back to Old Trafford in April and this FA Cup match served them notice that they better come ready to play.

Elsewhere, Chelsea took care of business at home against Huddersfield Town (3-1), and Coventry City thumped West Bromwich Albion 5-0 on the road in a battle of two recent Premiership sides.

Complete FA Cup 5th Round Scores:

Bristol Rovers-1, Southampton-0
Barnsley-2, Liverpool-1
Cardiff City-2, Wolverhampton-0
West Bromwich Albion-5, Coventry City-0
Chelsea-3, Huddersfield Town-1
Manchester United-4, Arsenal-0
Sheffield United-0, Middlesbrough-0
Portsmouth-1, Preston North End-0

Note: Premiership teams are in bold

As I said earlier, the quarterfinal draw will be made tomorrow morning here on the East Coast. You can find full coverage and analysis of that on this site and at epltalk.com.

Giving Credit When Credit is Due

I've given Arsenal their share of criticism all year long and been hesitant to jump on the Gunners' bandwagon, especially because of the relatively soft away schedule they've played up to this point. Manchester United are still going to win the title in my opinion and I've said that since last summer, so don't mistake that, but Arsenal are going to make it a fight until the very end and that's something I didn't think they would do back in November and December.

In one of my most recent posts, I talked about Manchester City's dip in form recently and how it looked like they were going to contiune sliding down the table. But you know what? They entered today's game against Arsenal with a 9-3-0 record at home. Undefeated. 30 points out of a possible 36. Arsenal came to the City of Manchester Stadium and bossed the match from beginning to end and in truth, the 3-1 scoreline was actually flattering to City, the loser.

Arsenal did this without their first-choice center back in Kolo Toure, who's away with Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations. They did this without their starting goalkeeper in Manuel Almunia. They did this without talismanic, creative midfielder Tomas Rosicky. Manchester City had a near-capacity home crowd supporting them and no injuries limiting them, and still got waxed.

As I said, I still think Manchester United are going to win the title. I've been excused in the past of playing favorites and things like that, but let me assure you, that's not the case. When I recognize a good performance from any team, I'm the first to applaud it and have no problem in doing so because I don't support one specific Premiership team.

This was a great win for Arsenal today and it could very well spur them on down the road. In the end, I'm not sure if they have the firepower to compete with United and the defending champions have the advantage of hosting what could be the title-decider on April 12, when they'll welcome the Gunners to Old Trafford. It won't be as quiet as a funeral parlor then, I can assure you of that.

Champions League Round of 16 Previews--Part 2

The night before Christmas Eve I gave you all my predictions for four of the eight Round of 16 ties in the Champions League and as promised, I have the last four today.

5. AC Roma vs. Real Madrid: This could make for a pretty entertaining two games as we'll see the current leaders of La Liga take on the current second-place side in Serie A. Madrid are 8-0-0 in the league at Santiago Bernabeu while Roma are 5-4-0 away from home, so something will have to give when Madrid host Roma on March 5. However, I think this tie will basically be decided in Rome during the first leg. If Roma can get a win and not concede a goal I think they can go to Madrid and, in true Italian fashion, sit 9 or 10 men behind the ball and grind out a draw. To me though, it's more likely that Real Madrid will score at the Stadio Olimpico and at the very worst, head home with a draw. Madrid aren't going to lose at home so the only chance Roma has to advance to the quarterfinals is to win the first leg and stave off the attacks in the second leg. Robinho and Ruud van Nistelrooy are tied for 3rd place in the top goalscorers category with four apiece. Here's what it comes down to: If Madrid can stifle Francesco Totti (9 goals in 10 Serie A matches), they'll move on and it's as simple as that.
Real Madrid-3, Roma-1

6. Arsenal vs. AC Milan: This is the most interesting tie of the round with the young bucks at Arsenal taking on the veteran old guard at Milan. Arsenal may or may not still be in serious contention to win the Premiership by the time the first leg at the Emirates rolls around in February, but AC Milan have essentially no chance to win Serie A this season. In fact, Milan may have to win the Champions League this year just to qualify for it next year as they're way off the pace even though they have three games in hand on most of the other teams in the league. Listen, I know Arsenal are 9-1-0 at home this season but they've feasted on a soft schedule; the Gunners are beatable in London, especially because Milan will have all of their focus on the Champions League as Serie A is out of reach, and because the Rossoneri boast such an experienced, battle-tested roster. They are the defending champions and I expect them to play like it when they go to the Emirates in February. Gattuso won't give Fabregas a yard of space and will hound him all game long, while Arsenal doesn't have anyone who can contain Kaka (especially if Gilberto leaves in January). To be honest, I think Milan will win both legs and advance in style.
AC Milan-3, Arsenal-1

7. Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Out of any of the teams Chelsea could have drawn for this round, I think they got their preferred choice. It won't be easy to go to Greece and come out with a result (Olympiacos is 7-0-0 at home in the league this season) but Chelsea will find a way to win 1-0 or 2-1, and they won't lose at Stamford Bridge in the return leg. The Blues won't win the Premier League and honestly, I think Avram Grant needs a deep run in the Champions League to really ensure his job status as manager. I don't care that he just signed a multi-year contract; if a big-name manager is interested, Roman Abramovich will come calling with no expense spared. As I said, Chelsea will get it done in this round with relative ease but we'll see what happens after that.
Chelsea-5, Olympiacos-1

8. Fenerbahçe vs. Sevilla: Here is the possible upset of the round; Fenerbahçe are my dark horse to move on to the quarterfinals and gain some valuable exposure for Turkish soccer. Fenerbahçe won all three of their group stage games at home en route to finishing 2nd behind Inter Milan in Group G, including a 1-0 win over Inter in September, and are 8-1-0 on home turf in the Turkcell Süper Lig so far this season. Sevilla, on the other hand, are seemingly crumbling as we speak. The back-to-back winners of the UEFA Cup now sit in 8th place in La Liga and are just three points ahead of the 13th place side, Recreativo Huelva. New manager Ronald Koeman is really trying to put his stamp on the club with the benching of some well-known players like David Albelda, Santiago Canizares and Miguel Angel Angulo, and I get the impression that the players don't have much confidence in him. Sevilla have just one win on the road in La Liga this season; they won't win in Turkey, so this tie will come down to the second leg in Seville, where they've already lost three times in nine matches. Fenerbahçe have some experienced players in Roberto Carlos, Alex, and Stephen Appiah while Sevilla's roster could be raided in January. It would be an upset in name only; I really think Fenerbahçe are the better team and we'll see that over two legs.
Fenerbahçe-3, Sevilla-2

So there you have it, my picks to move on to the quarterfinals of the Champions League. To recap:

Barcelona
Manchester United
Porto
Liverpool
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Chelsea
Fenerbahçe