Monday, May 12, 2008

Preseason Predictions Revisited

Alright, it's time for me to face the music and let you all have a go at me. I'm going to compare my preseason predictions as to how the final table would look with what has actually transpired over the 38-game season.

Here is my original prediction, and you can go back into the archives and look it up if you want proof:

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Liverpool
4. Tottenham
5. Arsenal
6. Portsmouth
7. Aston Villa
8. Everton
9. Bolton
10. Blackburn Rovers
11. Reading
12. West Ham
13. Fulham
14. Newcastle
15. Manchester City
16. Middlesbrough
17. Sunderland
18. Wigan Athletic
19. Birmingham City
20. Derby County

Now, here is the final table. Teams that I picked to finish exactly where they did are highlighted in bold:

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Arsenal
4. Liverpool
5. Everton
6. Aston Villa
7. Blackburn Rovers
8. Portsmouth
9. Manchester City
10. West Ham
11. Tottenham
12. Newcastle
13. Middlesbrough
14. Wigan Athletic
15. Sunderland
16. Bolton
17. Fulham
18. Reading
19. Birmingham City
20. Derby County

As you can tell, I hit four out of the league's 20 teams on the head, which is a 20% success rate. I also correctly predicted six out of 20 (30%) to finish either exactly where they did or one spot above or below, and 11 out of 20 (55%) to finish either exactly where they did or two spots above or below.

On the whole, I didn't do a great job but that's why this league is what it is. It's extremely difficult to make these kind of predictions and have any significant amount of accuracy. This was also the first season that I've really gotten into the Premiership and followed it closely.

I can't wait until July, when I do my second annual "20 Teams in 10 Days" Premiership Preview, where I take a look at all the teams for next year, their summer comings and goings, and predict where they'll end up in reverse order.

Go for it, everyone, have at me. I know you want to!

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