Euro 2008 Quarterfinals Predictions (Part 2)

OK, I'm back.

Quarterfinal #3 (June 21, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Italy (Group C winner) vs. Russia (Group D runner-up):

This would be a sneakier game for Italy then many people would think, especially if they just looked at the two names and knew that Italy is the current world champion.

The loss of captain Fabio Cannavaro, who is the rock in the Italian back line, is going to come back and bite Italy against a team like Russia that has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and will go for it all. Italy will be able to get by in the group stage (they’re in Group C, the “Group of Death”) because their opposition has high expectations and will play cautiously so as to make sure they don’t get beat. In his place, Andrea Barzagli will likely start alongside Marco Materazzi, from whom you never know what you’ll get, and that leaves the center of the Italian defense fairly vulnerable to quality attackers, which Andrei Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko both are.

In the midfield and up front, Italy is still strong. They are by no means quick, however, which plays into the hands of an experienced Russian team that does have some speed on the flanks. With that said, Luca Toni would be the best player on the field, bar none, and would cause a lot of problems for the Russian defense, as would Andrea Pirlo’s pinpoint passing.

The key matchup of this game would be between Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko from Russia and Gennaro Gattuso and Daniele De Rossi from Italy. Controlling the center of the field is going to be a must for both nations because Russia has the advantage on the wings and Italy can’t let Russia also have the middle. If Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko were able to get their way, and I already mentioned how the center of the Italian back line is susceptible to quality, the Russians could pull off the upset.

Italy would need to fire shots from everywhere at Russia’s goalkeeper, Igor Akinfeev. As I said in my preview of Russia, he is a very talented youngster and is the present and future in goal for his country, but he’s only going to be 23 years old at the start of the tournament and this is really his first time in the spotlight. You never know how he’ll react under pressure, and Italy has the experience and know-how to exploit this potential chink in the Russian armor.

The coaching battle between Russia’s Guus Hiddink and Italy’s Roberto Donadoni can’t be understated. It’s simple, really — Hiddink has done it before at the international level and Donadoni hasn’t. Hiddink has shown his flexibility and willingness to make tactical and structural changes on the fly, and Donadoni is the prototypical Italian coach who, although he changed formations successfully from game to game in the qualifiers, hasn’t shown the versatility to change much during the course of one match. He is cautious first and second, adventurous third. Donadoni has more talent at his disposal, but he’ll need to find a way to outmanuever his opposite number on the chess board.

Prediction: Italy-2, Russia-1 (after extra time)

Quarterfinal #4 (June 22, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Spain (Group D winner) vs. France (Group C runner-up):

In terms of pure talent and quality, these two teams are probably the best in the tournament. As we’ve seen all season in the Premiership when “Big Four” teams go at it, however, top-notch, world-class players competing against each other rarely makes for a compelling match.

Having made it out of Group C, France would have played two games just like this one against Spain and their other game, against Romania, wouldn’t have been a cakewalk either. They’d be battle-tested, whereas Spain can overmatch everyone in their group.

Looking at it from the other side of that coin, though, France would have played three draining, grueling games and don’t exactly have a roster full of spring chickens anymore; I’m not sure how much guys like Lilian Thuram, Claude Makélélé, Patrick Vieira (who will miss the first group game due to injury and will be racing the clock to be fit for the second match and beyond), and even Thierry Henry would have left in the tank going into the knockout rounds. Five of France’s players play for Manchester United and Chelsea, who are just coming off the longest seasons in European club soccer, and all five will see significant playing time in this tournament. Three others play for Barcelona, who went to the Champions League semifinals before bowing out.

Spain, on the other hand, should clinch a place in the last eight after their second group game (and if not, they’ll trounce Greece in the final fixture), and that would enable their stars to get that extra bit of rest. As it is, they’re already a much-younger team at the core positions than France, and should be able to dictate the tempo at which they want this game to be played.

Simplified, it comes down to this: France is older and has more experience, Spain has the weight of past disappointments on their shoulders but are a younger, and presumably hungrier, team. It’s tough to pick any one matchup that would decide this match; as I said, both teams are full of quality and their weaknesses cancel each other out. Spain is more dangerous up front with Fernando Torres and David Silva, but France has a much more solid back line. Spain has creative central midfielders in Xabi Alonso and Cesc Fabregas who are great passers, but France has a defensive midfielder who is so good that he has a position named after him (Makélélé), and one who has won just about everything there is to win in soccer, both at the international and club levels (Vieira). France has more explosiveness on their wings, but Spain’s formation gives their opposition the wings and makes them beat you down the middle.

Prediction: It’s a game that has extra time or extra time and PK’s written all over it. France-1, Spain-1 (France wins 4-3 in PK’s)

I know that all of this is just guesswork, of course, as the first kick of the ball hasn’t even been made yet, but that’s what the beauty of this game is. It provides us a chance to imagine and dream, and hey, we’ve got to find a way to make this week of anticipation go faster.

With that in mind, I’ll have my semifinal predictions/previews on Wednesday.

Goodbye, Sven-Göran Eriksson

It's official, Sven-Göran Eriksson left Manchester City today by "mutual consent" after having spent just one season at the Eastlands.

Let's be clear here. Technically, the term "mutual consent" can correctly be applied here because I'm sure Sven wanted out, but the antagonist and instigator of this whole situation was the club's owner, a human-rights abuser who isn't even welcome back in his native Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra. Sven was being pushed around by a guy who knows absolutely nothing about the game but tried to interfere anyway, and with the credentials and success that Sven has piled up, there was no reason for him to put up with that.

Shinawatra had grown increasingly unhappy with City's dip in form in the second half of the season, and Sven's job was in jeopardy even when multiple games were still left to be played. City lost 8-1 to Middlesbrough on the final day of the season and although that may have been what sealed Sven's fate in Shinawatra's mind, I'm of the mindset that the players tanked that game on purpose in a show of protest towards their owner and in support of the manager. In every interview I've seen and read, Manchester City's players were nothing less than thrilled that Sven was their manager and they had his back until the very end.

Eriksson turned around what had been a dismal team that just couldn't score goals under Stuart Pearce, now the England U-21 manager, and had them in a position to qualify for Europe nearly all season. Sure, City didn't end up in the top five, the only automatic qualification places in the Premiership this year, but their exemplary fair play record wound up propelling them into the '08-'09 UEFA Cup anyway. City beat hated rivals Manchester United twice this season, a feat they hadn't accomplished in decades.

Eriksson had very little time to put a team together after becoming manager last summmer, but was able to use his foreign connections to mold a very competitive, exciting squad. He more than surpassed expectations for his first year with a team whose core group of players hadn't played with each other before.

All told, Sven did a a great job at City this year and without him at the helm, I think you're going to see a significant exodus of players this summer. The captain and club player of the year for the past four seasons, blood-and-guts center back Richard Dunne, is on his way to Tottenham and should complete his move sometime this week. At just 19 years of age, Micah Richards is a terrific player and is already City's vice-captain, but the sky is the limit for him and his potential is unlimited. He'll be the starting right back for England in the 2010 World Cup and could start for any Premiership club at center back right now, and he'll presumably be off this summer. Elano could very well leave, Martin Petrov may leave, Stephen Ireland may leave; all of these departures are connected to Sven's departure.

In short, Shinawatra cut off the legs and future growth of his team by getting rid of a guy who brought instant credibility and recognition to a squad that had little of either as perennial inferior neighbors to United. They hadn't done well at all in recent seasons and when they finally did do so (9th place this year), the architect behind it all was unappreciated by the owner. City will suffer next season without Sven; I don't care how much money (most of it was illegally obtained anyway) Shinawatra has, you can't simply buy what Sven brought to the table.

It looks like Sven will land on his feet instantly and take the Mexican national team job, which would immediately thrust them to the top of CONCACAF and add more flavor and splash to a US-Mexico rivalry that has been dominated by the States for a little while now. I wish Sven all the luck in the future and hope he does well with Mexico, so long as it's not at the expense of the US qualifying for the next World Cup.

Sadly and perhaps most importantly, I think this means the end of Sven on "I'm on Setanta Sports" as well.."WELL", goodbye, Sven.

Euro 2008 Quarterfinals Predictions (Part 1)

Last week was devoted to previewing each of the four groups in Euro 2008 and with the start of the tournament less than a week away, it's time for me to take those previews and make predictions for the knockout rounds.

Today, I'll cover the four quarterfinal matchups I believe will take place, on Wednesday, I'll do the same for the semifinals, and I'll take you into the weekend (and the first four games of the competition) by previewing my pick for the final on Friday and posting the TV schedule for the group stage.

Quarterfinal #1 (June 19, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Portugal (Group A winner) vs. Croatia (Group B runner-up):

This would be the most compelling game to watch in the quarterfinal round. It pits two extremely capable coaches against each other in Luiz Felipe Scolari and Slaven Bilić, though the advantage would obviously go to Scolari as he's won a World Cup and is the more experienced of the two. Both managers are tactically sound and disciplined. Both of their teams are organized and play a system rather than play as a group of free-lancing individuals.

Because of these things, a tight game is the only thing that could be expected. Portugal has more talent on the field with Cristiano Ronaldo, the best player in the world, and Deco, a midfield general when his mind is right, both thinking about going forward and breaking down defenses. Croatia doesn't have a group of slouches in their midfield though either; Luka Modrić and Niko Kranjčar are terrific in their own right and would cause problems for the slow Portuguese back line.

Without their leading goal scorer from qualification, Eduardo da Silva, I just don't think Croatia has that cutting edge up front that they'd need to beat Portugal, whereas although Portugal features only one center forward on the field at a time, each of their midfield players, their wingers in particular, are capable of putting the ball in the back of the net.

Portugal also has an easier group to come out of and would be less fatigued than a Croatian side who will have to battle a co-host in Austria and two physical, hard-working teams in Germany and Poland.

I like Portugal's goalkeeping situation better; Ricardo has great reflexes from close range and is fantastic at saving PK's, which could be the difference in a game as close as this. Stipe Pletikosa is the Croatian goalie and he's fine, but he hasn't played in enough big games or even done well enough in the meaningful games that he has played in to convince me that he can come up with that one big save or claim a high ball into the area when it's truly necessary.

Prediction: Portugal-2, Croatia-1

Quarterfinal #2 (June 20, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Germany (Group B winner) vs. Switzerland (Group A runner-up):

If you're a fan of the Swiss, it's a win-lose situation in that if they advance from Group A, great, but if they don't win it, they're going to have face Germany and not have the home-field advantage that they enjoyed in the group stage. The fact that this game would be played in Vienna probably even favors Germany, to be honest, and Switzerland would need all the help they can get if this matchup were to come to fruition.

Switzerland is overmatched at every position except left wing, where Tranquillo Barnetta should easily get the better of whomever Germany plays on their right flank. Both nations defend very well and do so in a compact, tight manner that will concede the short passes and make the opponent beat you with a great individual play, either by breaking a defender down on the ground by dribbling or by slipping a through ball to an attacker making his run at precisely the right time. Germany has players that are capable of doing both; Michael Ballack and Tim Borowski are great passers and although they're not the fastest team in the world, Germany has guys like Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm who are capable of beating a defender one-on-one.

For Switzerland to have any hope in this game, their defense, led by Arsenal's Philippe Senderos, has to be the rock it was in the 2006 World Cup and Alexander Frei will need to play incredibly well up front. This is the type of match where whoever scores the first goal will almost assuredly win, so obviously drawing first blood is essential.

Germany's weakness is at center back, but Switzerland isn't the pacey, quick-footed team that will be able to exploit it. Per Mertesacker and Christoph Metzelder are the twin towers back there and can win anything in the air, but can be beaten by speed, either on the ball by a dribbler or off the ball by a cutting midfielder or striker. Switzerland will need to put pressure on those two players and see if they'll crack. If not, it could be a very frustrating afternoon for the Swiss.

Prediction: Germany-2, Switzerland-0

Part two of these quarterfinal predictions will be posted later on this evening, as I've got homework to attend to at the moment. Work before pleasure, right everyone?