Two Academy Subs Would Be a Mistake

According to an article on ESPNsoccernet, the Premier League will explore the possibility of implementing a rule that would require its 20 member teams to include at least two academy graduates from that particular club in the seven available substitutes on gameday.

This was one of the options put forward this summer in addition to the 7-man bench, which is up from its previous five this season. Obviously it wasn't introduced; the Premiership likely wanted to take things step by step and not make radical changes right away. Like FIFA and UEFA, though, the Premiership is in favor of increasing the amount of home-grown players on each team.

To get this proposal passed, it would take the approval of 2/3 of the top flight's 20 clubs (14, for all you math majors out there).

I'm completely against this idea and most others like it. There should be no requirement for a club to field a certain number of players from whatever country said club is based in. Teams should field the best side they can, regardless of players' nationalities. If you're an English club, who cares how many players from Ghana or Japan or the US or France or Sweden or wherever you have. Your primary goal is to win games and be successful. If you believe you can do that without one English player, then that's fine. Why should there be a rule forcing teams to include or play players they don't want to use?

My good friend, Kartik Krishnaiyer, is in favor of MLS requiring its teams to have a certain number of Americans on their rosters and in gameday lineups, and in Toronto FC's case, is in favor of them having a certain number of Canadians. That's silly. MLS is a league that is desperate for attention in this country's crowded sporting landscape. If the best a team can get is Americans, fine, but if a team can get better players from outside the US that can make an impact, they should make their best efforts to get them.

I don't mean to be anti-nationalist or nationalist here at all; I'm saying go after the best players you can get, no matter where they're from. If you feel that signing Americans makes better business sense because your fans can identify with them more and may buy more jerseys or merchandise, then that's fine too. Sign those Americans. But there shouldn't be a rule requiring teams to do so.

Let's face it -- the Premiership is a global league now. The only thing traditionally English about it anymore are the cities and stadiums where teams play, and the core group of fans for each club. That's it. The world's top talent isn't coming from England anymore; the vast majority of the Premiership's best players are foreign, with Steven Gerrard and a few others the primary notable exceptions. Forcing clubs to play a certain number of English players would just water down the league, because the fact of the matter is English players, by and large, aren't good enough at this point in time. We're seeing it with probably the top 10 or 12 teams in the league: starting lineups have more foreign-based players than English and British players, and it's not even close. Why? Because there's more talent to choose from outside of that small island's borders.

It's not even necessarily about that either, though. I don't care where players come from. If they're good enough to play for me, they're going to play. Not playing them because of where they're from or playing others because of where they're from is wrong. I'd have no problem playing a midfielder from Burkina Faso over a midfielder from England if I was a Premiership manager if the former was a better player or fit what I was trying to do more. That's what it should come down to, not filling out rosters and playing players to satisfy a stupid rule.

Euro 2008 Knockout Stage TV Schedule

Only seven games remain in Euro 2008, a tournament that has thrilled us and kept us on the edge of our seats for two weeks. We're coming down the home stretch, and it's win-or-go-home from this point on. It doesn't get any better than that.

Here's the TV schedule for these last few matches (all times Eastern):

Thursday, June 19 (QF)
Portugal vs. Germany (ESPN, 2:45)

Friday, June 20 (QF)
Croatia vs. Turkey (ESPN, 2:45)

Saturday, June 21 (QF)
Holland vs. Russia (ABC, 2:45)

Sunday, June 22 (QF)
Spain vs. Italy (ESPN, 2:45)

Wednesday, June 25 (SF)
Winner of Portugal/Germany vs. Winner of Croatia/Turkey (ESPN, 2:45)

Thursday, June 26 (SF)
Winner of Holland/Russia vs. Winner of Spain/Italy (ESPN2, 2:45)

Sunday, June 29 (Final)
Winner of SF #1 vs. Winner of SF #2 (ABC, 2:45)

Euro 2008 Group Stage Predictions Revisited

The group stage of Euro 2008 is now complete, and we were lucky to witness 12 days of compelling action all afternoon long. There were great comebacks. There were upsets. Some of the favorites held serve and did what they were expected to do.

Croatia's Slaven Bilić, who I've been high on for a while, thrust himself to the forefront of the managerial world with the way he led his team to three wins in three games. He beat Austria in their own home and Germany in their own backyard. He beat a desperate Poland team while resting nine starters as his team had already won their group. He found a way to replace Eduardo da Silva, Croatia's leading goal scorer in Euro 2008 qualifying.

David Villa's four goals for Spain, including a hat trick against Group D's second-place team, Russia, raised his stock after an extremely disappointing '07-'08 campaign for Valencia. He'll be looking to move this summer, but his price has definitely increased with his two performances.

ESPN's coverage has been good for the most part so far, although I think I may be the only one who isn't a fan of Andy Gray, a man who too often tries to preach to the viewers about soccer in general rather than staying with the task at hand, the game itself.

As I did after the end of the 2007-2008 Premiership season, I'll now take a look back at the predictions I made before this competition started:

My picks:

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Switzerland
3. Czech Republic
4. Turkey

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia
3. Austria
4. Poland

Group C
1. Italy
2. France
3. Romania
4. Holland

Group D
1. Spain
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Greece

Actual Results:

Group A (2-4)
1. Portugal
2. Turkey
3. Czech Republic
4. Switzerland

Group B (2-4)
1. Croatia
2. Germany
3. Austria
4. Poland

Group C (1-4)
1. Holland
2. Italy
3. Romania
4. France

Group D (4-4)
1. Spain
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Greece

So as you can see, out of the 16 total teams, I correctly picked the exact finishing places for 9 of them (56%) and was spot-on with Group D. I also correctly identified 6 out of the 8 quarterfinalists (75%). All in all, not bad, if I do say so myself (and I will).

My biggest mistakes were underestimating Holland and their explosiveness and overestimating the ability of France and Italy to overcome the age that can be found on the rosters of both nations. I counted on the home crowd to boost Switzerland to at least a place in the quarterfinals, but two bad refereeing decisions went against them in their opening match against the Czech Republic, a game they needed to have, and condemned them to their fate.

Euro 2008 Recap--Day 4

An alarming trend is developing after one round of games at Euro 2008 -- eight matches have been played so far, and only one of them has featured goals from both teams. Once a team takes the lead, they're basically a sure bet to hold on and win, and that doesn't make for compelling TV.

It was the David Villa show in Innsbruck this afternoon, as the Valencia striker bagged a hat trick in Spain's 4-1 victory over Russia. Villa ran the Russian back line ragged all game long, making them, center back Denis Kolodin in particular, look simply dreadful.

Spanish coach Luis Aragonés opted to start the game with two strikers instead of a lone man up front as was the case in his team's friendlies leading up to this tournament, and so Villa came into the lineup alongside Fernando Torres. The pairing worked to perfection in the 20th minute, when Torres picked Kolodin's pocket at the corner of the 18-yard box, then slipped a square ball right into the path of Villa, who put it into the empty net.

The turning point of the game came almost immediately after Villa's first goal. Russia had numbers forward and Dmitri Sychev sent a low cross skittering through the area. A Russian player had the first crack at it but didn't move, and when the Spanish defenders failed to deal with the slow-moving ball, Konstantin Zyrianov picked it up. His one touch, right-footed effort smacked off the left post and was cleared away, leaving Russia inches short of an equalizer.

That failure to finish came back to bit Russia when Villa struck again right before halftime. A short Russian corner kick and poor cross right after it led to a counter-attack for Spain, and they made no mistake. Andrés Iniesta threaded a gorgeous ball through to Villa, who was even with the last Russian defender and may even have been offside literally by the length of his foot. Villa calmly slotted it through the legs of Russian goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, who had a very respectable game in defeat.

At that point, the game was effectively over. Spain bossed the second half after going up-and-down with Russia for the first 45 minutes. The Spanish midfield, especially Marcos Senna, controlled the tempo of the game and knocked the ball around all over the field, forcing the Russians to run themselves ragged by chasing. Guus Hiddink's team eventually ran out of gas, and Villa completed his hat trick a quarter of an hour from time after another nice through ball sprung him one-on-one with Russian center back Roman Shirokov. Villa skinned Shirokov with a nice cutback move onto his right foot, then left Akinfeev guessing as he went to his left and Villa's shot went to the former's right.

A couple of garbage-time goals ended the game. Roman Pavlyuchenko picked up a consolation goal for Russia with a powerful header off a flick-on from a corner kick in the 86th minute. With Russia down 3-1, they had a chance to make things very interesting going into stoppage time when a poorly executed Spanish offside trap left Iker Casillas staring down the barrel of a wide open Russian player in the box. Casillas was able to smother the poor shot, which had been driven right into the arms of the Spanish captain. Cesc Fàbregas had entered the game in the 54th minute and was pretty quiet for the majority of the time he spent on the field, but his diving header off a rebound from a short-range volleyed effort by Xavi (set up nicely by Villa) accounted for the final margin in the 91st minute.

Russia clearly missed the creativity and inspiration of their best player, Andrei Arshavin, who was sitting out the first game of his two match suspension for a red card picked up in Russia's last Euro qualifier against Andorra. Russia just wasn't able to string any consistent possession together and even when they did manage to get something going, that last, cutting-edge ball required to really spring an attack just wasn't there.

Spain exerted their dominance in midfield but showed that they have weaknesses in the center of their defense. Carles Puyol and Carlos Marchena are both susceptible to the bone-head, moronic play every now and then, and that showed today. They both needlessly gave away possession at times with poor passes and failed to clear dangerous loose balls in their defensive third. Pavlyuchenko didn't have any support up front but still caused problems on his own. Teams that field two capable center forwards can give Spain trouble as Puyol and Marchena are there for the taking.

Reigning European champions Greece came out with five defenders (5-4-1) in their game against Sweden tonight, the first team in the tournament to do so. It's no secret that Greece made their mark in 2004 by stifling the life out of their opposition, something they set out to do today as well. They have little desire to go forward and are content with passing the ball around the back, content to kill off the game if they can't find a path of little resistance to goal or a chance to launch a counter-attack.

There are two problems with this philosophy and we saw them both in tonight's match, won 2-0 by Sweden. A team like Greece can only survive for so long by playing in a shell and inviting pressure onto their defense. Greece was able to survive for 67 minutes before a moment of brilliance from Zlatan Ibrahimović opened the scoring. The Juventus striker played a nice little one-two with his front line partner, the ageless Henrik Larsson, and finished off the move by taking Larsson's return pass first time and sending an absolute rocket shot from just outside the corner of the penalty area into the back of the net. Greece's goalkeeper, Antonios Nikopolidis, did well just to get a slight touch on it with a glove but he had no chance to save Zlatan's screaming right-footed drive. Sweden had been knocking on the door all game long with several good opportunities, and it was just a matter of time before they were able to ram it down and get a breakthrough.

The other problem with the way the Greeks play is that once they concede one goal, the floodgates usually open. Sweden's Petter Hansson, who started alongside Olof Mellberg in the center back position, scored the scrappiest goal you'll ever see five minutes later to make it 2-0, which was effectively game over with the anemic Greek attack. Nikopolidis came out very well to cut the angle down on Freddie Ljungberg, who was in alone 12 yards from goal. Ljungberg's shot was saved, the rebound was popped high into the air by an off-balance Johan Elmander, who came into the game just a minute earlier for Ibrahimović. The ball eventually came down to Hansson in the 6-yard box. His header was blocked by one of two surrounding Greek defenders, came down to the ground, and was bundled home by Hansson despite those defenders' best effort.

Sweden understood that the key to beating Greece was patience, and they exhibited that in this game. They refused to fall into their opponent's trap by getting caught out and allowing a counter-attack, and they knew that they needed to unlock the back line and get a moment of magic to finish it off. The same Greek defenders that had previously gone 425 minutes without conceding a goal in the European Championships are now four years older than they were when that streak started, something that coach Lars Lagerbäck obviously tried to stress to his team. He had his team make Greece's older group of players chase the ball and work to earn their point. In doing so, they grew tired as the game went on and let their guard down.

I was very impressed with the way Sweden played tonight. They'll need to repeat that performance (and probably even better it) in their next game as it'll be against Spain, who looked dominant earlier over Russia. A point there for Sweden and they'll be sitting pretty heading into the third and final group match against Russia. However, a loss to Spain and the Russia-Sweden match becomes winner-takes-all as Russia will beat Greece and go into their third game with three points, equal with Sweden if they don't get anything in four days' time. Remember, the first tie-breaker in this tournament is head-to-head results, not goal differential.

Group D Standings (after one game):
1. Spain (3 points, +3 goal differential)
2. Sweden (3 pts, +2)
3. Greece (0 pts, -2)
4. Russia (0 pts, -3)

Group A -- Portugal, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey (in that order in the standings) is back in action tomorrow, with the top two teams and the bottom two playing against each other. A win for either Portugal or the Czechs would likely see that nation through to the quarterfinals, and the loser of Switzerland-Turkey is as good as eliminated. I'd expect to see Switzerland, backed by their boisterous home crowd, win and stay alive to fight another day, and Portugal to also get a victory over the very uninspiring Czech Republic.

Euro 2008 Recap--Day 3

It's fair to say that the third day of Euro 2008 didn't necessarily provide us with entertaining soccer for the duration of both games (certainly not in the first one), but the results of those games were perhaps the most unexpected of the tournament so far. The favorites had won each of the previous four games in the competition, a trend that didn't continue today.

You could've slept through the Romania-France game, which ended 0-0, and not missed anything. France had two decent chances all game, both to Karim Benzema from outside the 18-yard box, and the Lyon striker missed well wide on one and sent a weak dribbler to Romanian goalkeeper Bogdan Lobonţ on the other. Those poor efforts capped a very mediocre (at best) game for Benzema, and his strike partner, Nicholas Anelka, was invisible for large chunks of the match before being taken off in the 72nd minute, six minutes before Benzema was also replaced. France clearly missed Thierry Henry up front, a player with plenty of pace and creativity to stretch the stout Romanian defense, but also someone who would undoubtedly bury one of the half-chances mucked up by Benzema.

Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery looked lively at times, but those times were few and far between. Too often they looked content to play the ball back into the middle instead of running at the Romanian full-backs one-on-one and trying to get to the endline.

Malouda and Ribery's play was a microcosm of France's performance -- too conservative, too afraid to send numbers forward, and too willing to play not to lose instead of playing to win. If the object of the game was to see how many short, square passes a team could complete, France certainly would've won, but that isn't the case.

To be fair, Romania weren't exactly world-beaters on the attacking end either, but they did at least make a concerted effort to test the aging French defenders. The problem with that from Romania's point of view is that they don't have enough team speed to dribble by anyone, and the French back line are as solid as it comes in terms of their spacing and positioning to help one another out when necessary. They are also good at winning balls in the air, and that took away from the effectiveness of Romania's set pieces, their strength.

After about the 70th minute, Romania began to sit 9 and 10 men behind the ball in an effort to get out of there with a draw. The game ground to a standstill at that point, with Romania throwing up a wall 35 yards from their goal while letting France have all the possession they wanted outside of that range. When France lost control of the ball, Romania was happy to blast it back up the field and let a lone striker chase it down. They didn't record a single shot on goal (although they had three shots blocked), but France only put one shot on target so Romania accomplished what they set out to do -- take a positive result into their second game.

In the second match of the day, won 3-0 by Holland, Italy just didn't show up. Period. Italy didn't show up. Holland completely outclassed their opponent and deserved their victory beyond any shadow of a doubt.

It was the Oranje's first win over Italy in 30 years, and it marked an emphatic end to the Italian dominance over the low-lying nation. Ruud van Nistelrooy's cool one touch finish from close range put the Dutch ahead in the 26th minute (no, Andy Gray, he was not offside), and his teammate at Real Madrid, Wesley Snejider, finished off a brilliant counter-attack five minutes later with a high, side-footed tap-in past Gianluigi Buffon. Italy was fortunate to make it to halftime only down 2-0.

In the second half, Holland continued to put on the pressure and that allowed Italy to stay in the game. The Italians were able to generate a few chances when they caught Holland out on an attack, as they weren't content with their two-goal lead. Holland put the game away for good a little more than ten minutes before full time just after Andrea Pirlo's freekick was saved by Edwin van der Sar. The ensuing counter-attack led to a 3-on-3 for Holland. Dirk Kuyt, who also had a very good game, wound up with the ball in a dangerous position on the right side of the box. His perfectly weighted cross was slammed home by Giovanni van Bronckhorst, one of the last people you'd expect to score with his head.

Italy's age showed against the faster, more dynamic Dutch side, which Roberto Donadoni may have underestimated a little bit. He didn't make any adjustments at halftime, either tactically or personnel-wise. He continued to use three central midfielders against a team that employed five midfielders and was geared around wing play. Italy had no answer for Kuyt and Snejider, and the previously little-known Orlando Engelaar had an excellent game from his holding role. Holland's back line, which had been criticized by many coming into this tournament (myself included) and labeled as the team's weakness, stifled Luca Toni all game long and Alessandro del Piero when he came in.

Holland is now in a great position atop the group, and conversely Italy is at the bottom and looking up. The Italians do have one positive to take out of today's action -- France drew with Romania, leaving Italy with just a point to make up to advance.

Group C Standings (after one game):
1. Holland (3 points, +3 goal differential)
2. Romania (1 pt, 0)
3. France (1 pt, 0)
4. Italy (0 pts, -3)

Group D finally opens up play tomorrow, with Spain taking on Russia in the early game, followed by defending champion Greece against Sweden. Look for Spain to try and make a statement to the other three teams that they are the side to beat in this group, and that those other teams will be fighting it out for second place at best.

Euro 2008 Recap--Day 2

Was it just me, or did you all also get a sense of déjà vu when watching today's action from Group B? I felt like I was witnessing yesterday's games all over again.

Consider:

• Both yesterday’s first game and today’s first game ended 1-0, and yesterday’s second game and today’s second game both ended 2-0.

• Co-host Switzerland played first yesterday and controlled the balance of play against their opponent, the Czech Republic, but couldn’t manage to equalize despite their best efforts. Co-host Austria played first today and the same conditions applied; they dominated Croatia for large periods of the game and had their chances to score, but just couldn’t put anything on the board. In both cases, the favorites were outplayed but still won.

• Portugal and Germany, trendy picks to go far in this tournament, struggled to put their lesser opposition away in the second games of the day. They both won 2-0, but neither looked particularly convincing in doing so. Portugal didn’t offer much going forward at times, and Germany gave up plenty of possession and several chances (mostly from long range).

Austria came out to play this afternoon against Croatia, starting the game in an aggressive 3-5-2 formation with the outside center backs going forward whenever the opportunity presented itself.

They certainly looked lively and energetic, but René Aufhauser went a bit too far in the 4th minute when he took down the stocky Ivica Olić inside the box. It was clearly a penalty kick, and the ironic thing is that Olić wasn't really in a position to cause much trouble and Aufhauser had no reason to get tangled up in that challenge. New Tottenham signing Luka Modrić slotted home the penalty -- the fastest converted in the history of the European Championships -- and at that point, the only question looked to be how many goals would Croatia score in the game.

Croatia continued to control the game for the next 15 minutes or so but generated very little in their attacking third. Mladen Petrić had Croatia's best chance for the rest of the game midway through the first half when he was wide open on the left side about 15 yards from goal and settled down a cross with his body, but completely wasted it when he blasted the bouncing ball high and well wide.

Austria's players, to their credit, didn't hang their heads or back down whatsoever. After Petrić's miss, it was pretty much all Austria all the time. Martin Harnik was dangerous on the right side up front all game and laid some nice horizontal passes for onrushing Austrian midfielders, but they couldn't get much on goal.

Josef Hickersberger's three second-half substitutions all had an impact on the game for Austria, and the co-hosts continued to try and ram down the Croatian door. The tournament's oldest player, 38-year old Ivica Vastic, was dangerous alongside the creative Andreas Ivanschitz in the center of midfield. Croatia had little answer for the Austrian onslaught except to sit 9 and 10 men behind the ball and send it long down field whenever they could.

Croatia did do a decent job of keeping Austria's attack largely to the outside and made it tough to penetrate into a good position in the center of the field. Most of the Austrian shots were from the perimeter and were handled well by Croatia's goalkeeper, Stipe Pletikosa. His back line won nearly every critical ball served into the area, but numerous failed clearances gave Austria the ball right back on the outside.

Right at the death, Austria came within inches of leveling the game at 1 when Roman Kienast's redirection of a low out-swinging free kick from Ivanschitz went narrowly wide. Croatia stole the victory, but they won't complain. If Austria continues to play like they did today, they'll earn a point somewhere in their last two games. Croatia will need to put it into another gear; they play Germany next and will come away with nothing if they turn in the same kind of performance. Austria outshot Croatia 16-10, including 6-1 in terms of shots on target, and Croatia's only effort on goal was the early spot kick.

Germany will head into that game also with three points after getting by Poland 2-0 today. The oft-criticized and Polish-born Lukas Podolski netted both goals for his team and took home Man of the Match honors.

Podolski struggled to find his place and perform at Bayern Munich this season, but a player who scores better than a goal every two games at the international level and was the Best Young Player at the 2006 World Cup will always earn a call-up. He certainly justified his place in the starting XI today. Mario Gomez, who many believed should start up top instead of Podolski, did just that, but he was no better than average today. I'd expect to see Podolski start up front alongside his teammate at Bayern, Miroslav Klose, who was also born in Poland, instead of wide left in the game against Croatia. Bastian Schweinsteiger should slide back into that position, which is where he usually plays, and it was a shock to not see him on the field from the outset.

Podolski and Klose combined for Germany's first tally, as the former tapped the latter's square ball into a wide open net after 20 minutes as the two came in alone on the Polish goalkeeper, Celtic's Artur Boruc. Where that goal was all about finesse, Podolski's second was all power -- a screaming volley from 12 yards past Boruc and into the top netting in the 72nd minute to put the game away.

Germany was in control all game long and there's no doubt about that, but they didn't administer the knockout blow until that 72nd minute goal. Before then, Poland was still in the match and had their chances. Leo Beenhakker's team was able to consistently pick up the ball in midfield and work their way forward; they had 52% of possession. They just didn't have that cutting edge when they did have numbers forward and, like Austria, wound up with mostly long range efforts that didn't trouble Jens Lehmann. Brazilian-born Roger Guerreiro came off the bench for Poland, was an immediate sparkplug and played very well, but even his pace and ability wasn't enough to create a goal or score himself to put his team back on equal footing.

Group B Standings (after one game):
1. Germany (3 points, +2 goal differential)
2. Croatia (3 pts, +1)
3. Austria (0 pts, -1)
4. Poland (0 pts, -2)

Play in Group C, the "Group of Death", begins tomorrow, with Romania-France to be followed by the tastiest match of the tournament thus far, Holland-Italy. It's a must-win game for France; they can't afford to not take three points against the weakest team in the group and possibly fall behind right out of the gate.

Switzerland Was Robbed!

I'd like someone to explain to me how this wasn't a handball. A penalty kick absolutely should've been awarded for this, and the fact that one wasn't is a disgrace.

The non-call cost Switzerland at least one point and with the momentum gained from converting a penalty, I don't doubt that Switzerland could've won this game in the 10 minutes that remained. Every point is valuable in a group stage that only lasts three matches.

If Switzerland end up missing out on progression to the quarterfinals by one point, look no further than this as the reason why. They definitely have a legitimate gripe here.

Euro 2008 Recap--Day 1

The 13th edition of the European Championships started out in decent fashion today, as both games had their exciting moments and neither ended in draws. The picks of many to advance from Group A, Portugal and the Czech Republic, both came away with victories, setting up a showdown in Geneva between the two in four days' time. That game will likely determine the group winner, but before we get there, let's take a look back at the opening day of Euro 2008.

In the first game, co-host Switzerland had the crowd in Basel firmly behind them against their opponent, Karel Brückner's Czech Republic. While his team seemed content to sit back and defend in their 4-5-1 for most of the first half, the Swiss came out as the aggressors and created several chances sprung by their wide men, Tranquillo Barnetta and Valon Behrami. On the rare occasions that the Czech Republic did push forward, Switzerland was able to build dangerous counter-attacks, and Alexander Frei forced Petr Čech to make two good saves, one from long range and the other coming from in tight as Frei bore down on the Czech goalkeeper from an angle.

Frei was forced to come off with a knee injury right before halftime, one that left the team's captain and all-time leading goal scorer in tears. At the time, it didn't seem like a huge blow because the Czech Republc had done absolutely nothing in the first half to convince anyone that they'd be able to score, and it seemed inevitable that Switzerland was going to eventually break through. Jan Koller was nothing more than a statue up front on his own; he can't run anymore and it didn't help that his teammates were not playing to his strengths -- getting him the ball with his back to goal so he could play it off to a midfielder making a forward run.

It was more of the same in the second half. Switzerland was controlling the game and playing it at their tempo, forcing the Czechs to chase the moving ball all over the field.

The creative Hakan Yakin came on for Frei at halftime and immediately made his presence known by drawing a foul right at the edge of the area and using his terrific passing ability later on. Yakin should've been on from the outside in place of Marco Streller, who also looked frozen up top, and the Swiss were made to pay for not being able to push one by Cech when Václav Svěrkoš, who had replaced the ineffective Koller in the 56th minute, outfoxed a Switzerland back line that was in the process of pushing up to catch the Czechs offside and managed to sneak in behind them. A lobbed header over the top by right back Zdeněk Grygera put Svěrkoš in alone, and the Banik Ostrava striker made his first international goal count in the 71st minute. He clearly mishit the ball; he wanted to strike it on the bounce with his laces but kind of shanked it off his ankle, but they all count the same.

After that goal, Switzerland threw everything they had and the kitchen sink at the Czechs, who dropped 10 men behind the ball and relied on a hoof-and-chase style to clear the ball out of their defensive third. Switzerland had a stone cold penalty turned down by Italian referee Roberto Rosetti after Tomáš Ujfaluši clearly handled the ball in the box. Barnetta then picked up the loose ball, forced Cech to dive to his left to push away a smashing, low left-footed shot, and Johan Vonlanthen put the bouncing rebound off the crossbar. Seconds before full time, another questionable use of the upper arm in the area by a Czech player went unnoticed by Rosetti, and the match ended 1-0 despite the fact that Switzerland deserved a better fate.

Today's second game wasn't nearly as dramatic; Portugal dominated Turkey for large stretches and were unlucky to only win 2-0 as Nuno Gomes hit the crossbar and a post and Cristiano Ronaldo's beautiful curving free kick in the first half was parried off the post by Turkish goalkeeper Volkan Demirel.

Real Madrid's Pepe had had his header off a corner kick disallowed due to a correctly called offside in the 17th minute, but he more than made up for it with the beautiful one-two between himself and Nuno Gomes that resulted in Pepe walking in alone on goal. The center back coolly finished the play like he was an experienced striker. It had taken just over an hour for Portugal to finally break through, and the goal seemed to break Turkey's spirit a little bit. Minutes later, the aforementioned Nuno Gomes, who wore the captain's armband in this game, nodded Cristiano Ronaldo's good cross off the crossbar.

Turkey huffed and puffed but never did enough to equalize, and Raul Meireles' first international goal sealed the deal in the 93rd minute. It was created by Ronaldo (who else), who slid a right-footed through ball from the left wing to João Moutinho, who was streaking into the box right down the middle. Moutinho's remarkable turn with the ball onto his right foot left him with only one option as Turkey's goalkeeper was bearing down on him, and Moutinho laid a soft pass onto Meireles. Meireles had the net at his mercy and Portugal finished the game in style after outshooting their opponent 16-6 over the course of the game.

I came away most impressed with Switzerland and Portugal, the former of whom I still think will make it out of Group A. The Czech Republic showed me nothing at all except the fact that they obviously miss Tomas Rosicky as their creator in the midfield, and Turkey are good technically but just don't offer much going forward. Switzerland and Turkey play each other in four days, and the loser of that game will be eliminated from contention -- perhaps not mathematically, but for all intents and purposes, the loser is done. Even a draw doesn't help much for either team, so that should be a fun game to watch. I expect Portugal to wipe the floor with the Czech Republic, perhaps 2-0 or 3-1 if the Czechs really get their scoring boots on.

Group A Standings (after one game):
1. Portugal (3 points, +2 goal differential)
2. Czech Republic (3 pts, +1)
3. Switzerland (0 pts, -1)
4. Turkey (0 pts, -2)

The four teams in Group B open up their respective accounts tomorrow, with co-hosts Austria meeting Croatia in the early game and Germany looking to “blitz” through their Polish neighbors once again in the second match of the day.

Today's highlights:

http://101greatgoals.magnify.net/item/W87TN981TDJJFHTS -- Svěrkoš' winner
http://101greatgoals.magnify.net/item/776CQ7SXK83K202S -- The handball that wasn't and the chances that followed
http://101greatgoals.magnify.net/item/NM76BVXMRY5V8BL8 -- Pepe's beatifully worked goal
http://101greatgoals.magnify.net/item/7GF1B11WPHSKZVBR -- Icing on the cake for Portugal

TV Schedule for Euro 2008 Group Stage

The long wait for Euro 2008 is just about over as we're roughly 17 hours away from kickoff in the tournament opener between Switzerland, the co-host, and the Czech Republic.

The group stage will end on June 18, with two games played every day until that date. Starting Sunday, June 15, both games will kick off at 2:45 PM here on the East Coast so as to prevent the possibility of any sort of outside shenanigans that could unsportingly influence the outcome of the final group standings.

ABC and ESPN have the exclusive television rights in this country, and each of the tournament's 31 games will be broadcasted on the "family of networks" -- ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Classic, and ABC. They've brought an expert group of commentators to work these matches, with the familiar pairing of Derek Rae and Tommy Smyth on the call for the first game of the day, and Adrian Healey and Sky Sports' Andy Gray for the second, until June 15 when both games begin at the same time as I mentioned earlier.

With these things in mind, here's the complete TV schedule for the group stage of Euro 2008 (all times Eastern):

Saturday, June 7:
Switzerland vs. Czech Republic (ESPN Classic, Noon)
Portugal vs. Turkey (ESPN Classic, 2:45)

Sunday, June 8:
Austria vs. Croatia (ESPN2, Noon)
Germany vs. Poland (ESPN2, 2:45)

Monday, June 9:
Romania vs. France (ESPN2, Noon)
Holland vs. Italy (ESPN2, 2:45)

Tuesday, June 10:
Spain vs. Russia (ESPN2, Noon)
Greece vs. Sweden (ESPN2, 2:45)

Wednesday, June 11:
Czech Republic vs. Portugal (ESPN2, Noon)
Switzerland vs. Turkey (ESPN2, 2:45)

Thursday, June 12:
Croatia vs. Germany (ESPN2, Noon)
Austria vs. Poland (ESPN2, 2:45)

Friday, June 13:
Italy vs. Romania (ESPN2, Noon)
Holland vs. France (ESPN2, 2:45)

Saturday, June 14:
Sweden vs. Spain (ESPN2, Noon)
Greece vs. Russia (ESPN2, 2:45)

Sunday, June 15:
Turkey vs. Czech Republic (ESPN Classic, 2:45)
Switzerland vs. Portugal (ESPN2, 2:45)

Monday, June 16:
Poland vs. Croatia (ESPN Classic, 2:45)
Austria vs. Germany (ESPN, 2:45)

Tuesday, June 17:
France vs. Italy (ESPN, 2:45)
Holland vs. Romania (ESPN Classic, 2:45)

Wednesday, June 18:
Russia vs. Sweden (ESPN2, 2:45)
Greece vs. Spain (ESPN, 2:45)

I'll post the TV schedule for the knockout rounds immediately following the Greece-Spain game on the 18th.

Remember, starting Sunday, you can find daily recaps of the previous day's action and brief looks ahead to the two games that day here at English Soccer Talk.

Euro 2008 Final Prediction

I've been building up to the start of Euro 2008 for two weeks now, providing you with a one-stop-shop of sorts with final rosters for each of the 16 nations involved, previews of each nation and group, and my predictions for the quarterfinals and beyond.

Every tournament has a winner, obviously, and we're at that stage in my pre-competition coverage. It has all come down to Portugal and Italy for the right to be the European champion for the next four years.

Final (June 29, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Portugal (Winner of SF #1) vs. Italy (Winner of SF #2)

This game pits the team with the best player in the world against one of, if not the most, the most organized, disciplined nations in the world.

Portugal and Italy, respectively, play differing styles of soccer; Portugal is dynamic on the wings and is very good on the counter-attack, and Italy prefers to dominate possession and dictate the pace of the game.

Taking the leadership and intangible factors out of the equation, the absence of Fabio Cannavaro wouldn't hurt Italy against Portugal. As I've discussed earlier, Portugal doesn't have terribly much talent in the center forward position and tend to play a lone man up front anyway. Two solid center backs (Materazzi and Barzagli) should be able to shut down Nuno Gomes, or possibly either Hélder Postiga or Hugo Almeida, without a lot of trouble.

Italy's full-backs, Gianluca Zambrotta and most likely Christian Panucci, will have trouble with the pace and creativity of Cristiano Ronaldo and Simão, the two wingers in Portugal's 4-3-3/4-5-1 formation. At 35 years of age, I don't think Panucci can stick with either of those two, and the attack-minded Zambrotta is susceptible to being caught out of position on a trademark Portuguese counter-attack.

There is no question that Ronaldo and Simão would have to play well in this game and really be the catalysts from their wide positions, because the middle of the field would be an absolute bloodbath. The combination of Gattuso, Pirlo, and De Rossi for Italy and Deco, Veloso, and Petit for Portugal in or around the center circle has tough tackling, late challenges, and epic battles for 50-50 balls written all over it. It would not be for the faint of heart, but is absolutely worth watching and could very well be where this game is won and lost. The advantage has to go to Italy in this matchup; their trio is more experienced and has a more complete array of skills to use on the field, but Deco is probably the best individual player out of the six and can single-handedly swing a game in his country's favor if he's on his game.

Luca Toni has played for 10 clubs in his career and just turned 31, but he is a fantastic striker with a goal-to-game ratio of just over 1:2 both domestically and internationally. At 6'4", he has a significant size advantage over Ricardo Carvalho, who is a shut down center back and would likely have the assignment of sticking to Toni like glue. Carvalho is no slouch in the air and while the fact that Italy doesn't rely much on wing play and crosses into the area helps the Chelsea defender, he's still going to have to find a way to deal with the bigger, more powerful Toni. He has a unique skill set compared to the strikers Carvalho sees on a weekly basis in the Premier League, so that matchup will definitely be something to keep your eyes on.

Italy has the better goalkeeper in Gianluigi Buffon, although he battled a bit of a back problem with Juventus in Serie A this season which could effect his ability to dive and move side-to-side. Ricardo is a fine goalie in his own right and has great reflexes, but has struggled in the past with claiming balls out of the air. One mistake on a corner kick or a free kick, one mis-timed leap to punch the ball to safety, and big, tall Luca Toni will put it in the back of the net.

It all comes down to tempo. If Portugal is able to play their counter-attack brand of game and exploit their advantage on the wings, they'll have a chance to pull off the upset. Italy needs to slow the game down to suit their style and possess the ball in their midfield while looking for holes and weaknesses in the Portuguese back line. You'll see a high number of fouls and cards in this game as both nations have multiple players who won't hesitate to chop their opponents down if necessary, and emotions obviously will be running high in a final.

Prediction: Italy-2, Portugal-1

Euro 2008 Semifinals Predictions

The countdown to Euro 2008 is now on in earnest as we're less than three days away from kickoff in the opener, Switzerland-Czech Republic. Along with my final prediction on Friday, I'll post the complete TV schedule for the group stage for everyone's convenience. I can't wait for this thing to get started.

Onto my predictions for the semifinals.

Semifinal #1 (June 25, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Portugal (Winner of QF #1) vs. Germany (Winner of QF #2)

I'll be honest -- this semifinal probably would not be the most exciting game to watch.

Portugal is the more dynamic of the two nations as far as comparing the individual players, but their coach, Luiz Felipe Scolari, isn't known for playing a high-octane, up-and-down system. They also employ only one natural striker at a time and when you look at the options (Helder Postiga, Nuno Gomes, Hugo Almeida), none really have the capability of even coming close to setting the world alight. The lack of talent in that role will be a problem for Portugal against Germany, whose center backs can be exploited in their matchup against strikers who are quick and can beat you one-on-one for pace. Portugal doesn't have anyone up front who can do that, so I'd expect Cristiano Ronaldo to occupy a position right behind whoever the starting striker is and just constantly run at and terrorize the tall, slow pair of Christoph Metzelder and Per Mertesacker.

Germany has a terrific center forward in Miroslav Klose, but it's unclear who will be playing alongside him. The team is loaded in the midfield and will rely on Michael Ballack for inspiration and goal-scoring, to a lesser extent. It is a team that doesn't have the firepower to outscore Portugal, so they'll need to shut down the midfield and Ballack will play in a more subdued role to help Torsten Frings.

While Portugal has a clear advantage over Germany in the center back position, Germany possesses better, more dangerous full-backs in Philipp Lahm and either Marcell Jansen or Arne Friedrich. They'll need to go forward and provide good aerial service for Klose and Ballack, both of whom are terrific headers of the ball. However, they'll also need to their pick their spots when doing so because Portugal can counter-attack with the best of them and are incredibly speedy on the wings with Ronaldo and Simão.

I just can't see where the goals are going to come from for Germany aside from either Klose or Ballack. As alluded to earlier, the center of the Portuguese back line and their defensive midfield play is very solid. If those players do their jobs, which they should, Ballack and Klose will both be negated. Portugal has the best player in the world on their side in Cristiano Ronaldo, and he's capable of scoring in a vast multitude of ways. Also, Jens Lehmann is always capable of giving up a bad goal, so that combination looks promising for Portugal.

Prediction: Portugal-1, Germany-0

Semifinal #2 (June 26, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Italy (Winner of QF #3) vs. France (Winner of QF #4)

These two nations would be well and truly sick of each other if this matchup was to occur. France and Italy played in the World Cup final in 2006, won by Italy in PK's. They were in the same qualifying group for this tournament and played twice there, with France taking four of the six possible points. They're in Group C, the "Group of Death", together this summer and will play each other on June 17, just 9 days before this game would occur.

Just like the case would be in a France-Spain quarterfinal, there isn't much to separate between France and Italy. The major difference in the first matchup is the age gap; Spain is a much younger team at the core positions than France. In this matchup, both teams are relatively equal in that regard and their players have a lot of experience at the highest level, both internationally and domestically.

If there was one key factor to look at, it's the disparity in quality between the two goalkeepers. Italy's Gianluigi Buffon is amongst the top two or three at his position in the world, whereas France's Grégory Coupet was the long-serving backup to Fabien Barthez. To be fair, Coupet is not a slouch between the sticks by any means; in fact, he's very good and has played in a number of big games in the Champions League at Lyon. I'm just unsure as to how he'll perform in the second-largest tournament in the world after never having done it before.

Everywhere else on the field seems to be a wash. Both teams are solid up front, with Thierry Henry and either Nicholas Anelka or Karim Benzema for France and Luca Toni and either Marco Borriello or Antonio Di Natale for Italy. France prefers to use out-and-out wingers in Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery, both great internationally, and use two holding midfield players at the same time (Makélélé and Vieira/Toulalan), whereas Italy will completely clog the center of the field with Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso, and Daniele De Rossi, who is an absolutely fantastic player. France does have a better back line, especially with the devastating injury to Italy's Fabio Cannavaro, but they're also a little older and perhaps a bit more error-prone.

Prediction: Despite the fact that both teams have an abundance of attacking talent, goals will be at a premium in this game as it'll be played with a tight-to-the-vest, cautious style. It'll be an absolute bloodbath in the center of the park, and France's superior wing play will be the deciding factor. If Malouda and Ribery show up, France will win, if not, they'll go home. Italy-1, France-0

Euro 2008 Quarterfinals Predictions (Part 2)

OK, I'm back.

Quarterfinal #3 (June 21, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Italy (Group C winner) vs. Russia (Group D runner-up):

This would be a sneakier game for Italy then many people would think, especially if they just looked at the two names and knew that Italy is the current world champion.

The loss of captain Fabio Cannavaro, who is the rock in the Italian back line, is going to come back and bite Italy against a team like Russia that has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and will go for it all. Italy will be able to get by in the group stage (they’re in Group C, the “Group of Death”) because their opposition has high expectations and will play cautiously so as to make sure they don’t get beat. In his place, Andrea Barzagli will likely start alongside Marco Materazzi, from whom you never know what you’ll get, and that leaves the center of the Italian defense fairly vulnerable to quality attackers, which Andrei Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko both are.

In the midfield and up front, Italy is still strong. They are by no means quick, however, which plays into the hands of an experienced Russian team that does have some speed on the flanks. With that said, Luca Toni would be the best player on the field, bar none, and would cause a lot of problems for the Russian defense, as would Andrea Pirlo’s pinpoint passing.

The key matchup of this game would be between Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko from Russia and Gennaro Gattuso and Daniele De Rossi from Italy. Controlling the center of the field is going to be a must for both nations because Russia has the advantage on the wings and Italy can’t let Russia also have the middle. If Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko were able to get their way, and I already mentioned how the center of the Italian back line is susceptible to quality, the Russians could pull off the upset.

Italy would need to fire shots from everywhere at Russia’s goalkeeper, Igor Akinfeev. As I said in my preview of Russia, he is a very talented youngster and is the present and future in goal for his country, but he’s only going to be 23 years old at the start of the tournament and this is really his first time in the spotlight. You never know how he’ll react under pressure, and Italy has the experience and know-how to exploit this potential chink in the Russian armor.

The coaching battle between Russia’s Guus Hiddink and Italy’s Roberto Donadoni can’t be understated. It’s simple, really — Hiddink has done it before at the international level and Donadoni hasn’t. Hiddink has shown his flexibility and willingness to make tactical and structural changes on the fly, and Donadoni is the prototypical Italian coach who, although he changed formations successfully from game to game in the qualifiers, hasn’t shown the versatility to change much during the course of one match. He is cautious first and second, adventurous third. Donadoni has more talent at his disposal, but he’ll need to find a way to outmanuever his opposite number on the chess board.

Prediction: Italy-2, Russia-1 (after extra time)

Quarterfinal #4 (June 22, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Spain (Group D winner) vs. France (Group C runner-up):

In terms of pure talent and quality, these two teams are probably the best in the tournament. As we’ve seen all season in the Premiership when “Big Four” teams go at it, however, top-notch, world-class players competing against each other rarely makes for a compelling match.

Having made it out of Group C, France would have played two games just like this one against Spain and their other game, against Romania, wouldn’t have been a cakewalk either. They’d be battle-tested, whereas Spain can overmatch everyone in their group.

Looking at it from the other side of that coin, though, France would have played three draining, grueling games and don’t exactly have a roster full of spring chickens anymore; I’m not sure how much guys like Lilian Thuram, Claude Makélélé, Patrick Vieira (who will miss the first group game due to injury and will be racing the clock to be fit for the second match and beyond), and even Thierry Henry would have left in the tank going into the knockout rounds. Five of France’s players play for Manchester United and Chelsea, who are just coming off the longest seasons in European club soccer, and all five will see significant playing time in this tournament. Three others play for Barcelona, who went to the Champions League semifinals before bowing out.

Spain, on the other hand, should clinch a place in the last eight after their second group game (and if not, they’ll trounce Greece in the final fixture), and that would enable their stars to get that extra bit of rest. As it is, they’re already a much-younger team at the core positions than France, and should be able to dictate the tempo at which they want this game to be played.

Simplified, it comes down to this: France is older and has more experience, Spain has the weight of past disappointments on their shoulders but are a younger, and presumably hungrier, team. It’s tough to pick any one matchup that would decide this match; as I said, both teams are full of quality and their weaknesses cancel each other out. Spain is more dangerous up front with Fernando Torres and David Silva, but France has a much more solid back line. Spain has creative central midfielders in Xabi Alonso and Cesc Fabregas who are great passers, but France has a defensive midfielder who is so good that he has a position named after him (Makélélé), and one who has won just about everything there is to win in soccer, both at the international and club levels (Vieira). France has more explosiveness on their wings, but Spain’s formation gives their opposition the wings and makes them beat you down the middle.

Prediction: It’s a game that has extra time or extra time and PK’s written all over it. France-1, Spain-1 (France wins 4-3 in PK’s)

I know that all of this is just guesswork, of course, as the first kick of the ball hasn’t even been made yet, but that’s what the beauty of this game is. It provides us a chance to imagine and dream, and hey, we’ve got to find a way to make this week of anticipation go faster.

With that in mind, I’ll have my semifinal predictions/previews on Wednesday.

Euro 2008 Quarterfinals Predictions (Part 1)

Last week was devoted to previewing each of the four groups in Euro 2008 and with the start of the tournament less than a week away, it's time for me to take those previews and make predictions for the knockout rounds.

Today, I'll cover the four quarterfinal matchups I believe will take place, on Wednesday, I'll do the same for the semifinals, and I'll take you into the weekend (and the first four games of the competition) by previewing my pick for the final on Friday and posting the TV schedule for the group stage.

Quarterfinal #1 (June 19, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Portugal (Group A winner) vs. Croatia (Group B runner-up):

This would be the most compelling game to watch in the quarterfinal round. It pits two extremely capable coaches against each other in Luiz Felipe Scolari and Slaven Bilić, though the advantage would obviously go to Scolari as he's won a World Cup and is the more experienced of the two. Both managers are tactically sound and disciplined. Both of their teams are organized and play a system rather than play as a group of free-lancing individuals.

Because of these things, a tight game is the only thing that could be expected. Portugal has more talent on the field with Cristiano Ronaldo, the best player in the world, and Deco, a midfield general when his mind is right, both thinking about going forward and breaking down defenses. Croatia doesn't have a group of slouches in their midfield though either; Luka Modrić and Niko Kranjčar are terrific in their own right and would cause problems for the slow Portuguese back line.

Without their leading goal scorer from qualification, Eduardo da Silva, I just don't think Croatia has that cutting edge up front that they'd need to beat Portugal, whereas although Portugal features only one center forward on the field at a time, each of their midfield players, their wingers in particular, are capable of putting the ball in the back of the net.

Portugal also has an easier group to come out of and would be less fatigued than a Croatian side who will have to battle a co-host in Austria and two physical, hard-working teams in Germany and Poland.

I like Portugal's goalkeeping situation better; Ricardo has great reflexes from close range and is fantastic at saving PK's, which could be the difference in a game as close as this. Stipe Pletikosa is the Croatian goalie and he's fine, but he hasn't played in enough big games or even done well enough in the meaningful games that he has played in to convince me that he can come up with that one big save or claim a high ball into the area when it's truly necessary.

Prediction: Portugal-2, Croatia-1

Quarterfinal #2 (June 20, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Germany (Group B winner) vs. Switzerland (Group A runner-up):

If you're a fan of the Swiss, it's a win-lose situation in that if they advance from Group A, great, but if they don't win it, they're going to have face Germany and not have the home-field advantage that they enjoyed in the group stage. The fact that this game would be played in Vienna probably even favors Germany, to be honest, and Switzerland would need all the help they can get if this matchup were to come to fruition.

Switzerland is overmatched at every position except left wing, where Tranquillo Barnetta should easily get the better of whomever Germany plays on their right flank. Both nations defend very well and do so in a compact, tight manner that will concede the short passes and make the opponent beat you with a great individual play, either by breaking a defender down on the ground by dribbling or by slipping a through ball to an attacker making his run at precisely the right time. Germany has players that are capable of doing both; Michael Ballack and Tim Borowski are great passers and although they're not the fastest team in the world, Germany has guys like Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm who are capable of beating a defender one-on-one.

For Switzerland to have any hope in this game, their defense, led by Arsenal's Philippe Senderos, has to be the rock it was in the 2006 World Cup and Alexander Frei will need to play incredibly well up front. This is the type of match where whoever scores the first goal will almost assuredly win, so obviously drawing first blood is essential.

Germany's weakness is at center back, but Switzerland isn't the pacey, quick-footed team that will be able to exploit it. Per Mertesacker and Christoph Metzelder are the twin towers back there and can win anything in the air, but can be beaten by speed, either on the ball by a dribbler or off the ball by a cutting midfielder or striker. Switzerland will need to put pressure on those two players and see if they'll crack. If not, it could be a very frustrating afternoon for the Swiss.

Prediction: Germany-2, Switzerland-0

Part two of these quarterfinal predictions will be posted later on this evening, as I've got homework to attend to at the moment. Work before pleasure, right everyone?

Euro 2008 Preview--Group D (Part 2)

Spain:

On paper, this team is stacked. There's no other, more profound way to put it. Player for player, Spain is loaded and may have the most individual talent in this tournament.

The key for coach Luis Aragonés is to mold that talent into a TEAM that can really make a deep run. That will be no easy feat; despite the quality of players Spain has produced over the years, they've won only one senior international tournament -- the 1964 European Championship, which they hosted. It's been one disappointing exit after another since then. In Euro 2004, La Furia Roja didn't even make it out of the group stage and at the World Cup two years later, they lost in the Round of 16 with largely the same core of players that will be on the field this June. Like England, Spain is a perennial underachiever, but unlike the Three Lions, Spain has a chance to at least partially wipe out that stigma in this competition.

Spain qualified with relative ease, as their only stiff competition was fellow Group D contender Sweden. Aragonés' men split their two meetings with Sweden, with both teams winning on their respective home fields, but were able to gain two more points against the rest of the teams in the group.

Depending on who you listen to, Spain has the world's best goalkeeper between the sticks in Real Madrid's Iker Casillas, who has been his country's first choice in net since World Cup 2002. His only Madrid teammate on the Spanish roster, Sergio Ramos, will be at right back and is another guy who is one of the best players in the world at his position. Carles Puyol, though without much technical skill and ability, is an inspirational leader in the center of defense and works as hard as anyone. Joining Puyol in the center will be Valencia's Carlos Marchena. At left back, Joan Capdevila had a terrific season for Villarreal and will likely get the nod over Fernando Navarro. All in all, the back line (aside from Ramos) is the weak link of the Spanish team, and can be exploited in the middle and on Capdevila's side by quick, pacey teams who play through balls for that speed to run on to.

Xabi Alonso is a very good bet to start ahead of Marcos Senna and sit right above the back four, where the former's wonderful long-range passing ability is perfectly suited. Ahead of him will be the more attack-minded Cesc Fàbregas and Xavi, no slouches at passing themselves. A lack of quality wingers (and depth in those positions) in the Spanish game right now has forced Aragonés' hand; he has to play three central midfielders and rely on his full-backs to give the team width, but that limits their ability to help cover ground that Spain's slow-footed center backs can't get to.

Up top, Liverpool's Fernando Torres will lead a deadly, three-pronged front line, flanked on the right by David Silva and on the left by Andrés Iniesta, who is used to playing in that role for Barcelona.

One thing is for certain, Spain has the capability and the players to score goals, but I'm not sure how reliable their back line is. They have a top-notch goalkeeper in Casillas, but even he can't stop everything if his defense puts him in too many tough spots. That offensive ability alone should be enough to get them out of the group stage, but once the big boys come around, Spain's weaknesses in the back can be taken advantage of.

Sweden:

Wrapping up the Group D preview we have Sweden, a nation, like its Scandinavian neighbors, for whom soccer is by far the secondary sport. As a result of that, Sweden has never really earned a place at the "big kids table" with the likes of traditional soccer-crazed countries, despite the fact that they've reached a World Cup final and finished third in 1994, a Euro semifinal, and have made consistent, significant strides forward in recent years.

Sweden's coach, Lars Lagerbäck, has been at the helm since 2000 (as "joint-coach" from 2000 until after Euro 2004) and is the longest-tenured of his peers at this tournament. Under his tenure, Sweden has qualified for five straight major international tournaments, something that had never been done before in the history of Swedish soccer.

He has an experienced team, one that is probably at the very peak of its livelihood. Most of the players on the roster are at the point in their careers where regression, rather than development, will be expected in the future and if Sweden doesn't put a nice run together in this tournament or in World Cup 2010, which is less likely because it's two more years of age on this current crop of players, a period of growing pains could result.

In goal will be Andreas Isaksson, who was out of favor at Manchester City this year under fellow Swede Sven-Göran Eriksson. Fredrik Stoor will be at right back, with Olof Mellberg moving to the center after playing on the right for Aston Villa this season. Alongside Mellberg, Daniel Majstorović should see off the challenge of Andreas Granqvist and get the starting nod, and the versatile Mikael Nilsson will be on the left.

Tobias Linderoth was a major concern due to injury heading into the final roster cut-down date, but Lars Lagerbäck obviously had his worries eased through encouraging reports because Linderoth was included. He'll sit right above the back four in a holding role, with Christian Wilhelmsson ahead of him on the right wing, Freddie Ljungberg, the captain, on the left, and either Anders Svensson (more experienced, better on dead balls) or Kim Källström (younger, more of a playmaker with his passing ability, and can whip balls in from open play) in the middle.

Henrik Larsson, stive alive and kicking (or scoring, in this case) at the age of 36, will provide that ounce of subtlety, creativity, and quality in the area than his more straightforward, powerful strike partner, Zlatan Ibrahimović, who has an attitude nearly as bad as that of Antonio Cassano, but that same ability to score goals at will when his mind is right and has come up with a few peaches in his day. Together, the two are a lethal duo up front and will put a few goals in the back of the net for Sweden.

Sweden will look at their games against Greece and Russia as necessary victories, because while Greece has the discipline and Russia has the coaching and work rate to take points from Spain, Sweden is above-average in all categories and doesn't do one particular thing well enough to overcome superior talent. Taking six points from those two teams would be enough to go through, so that will be their main focus.

Group D Final Prediction (teams in bold advance):

1. Spain -- 7 points
2. Russia -- 5 points
3. Sweden -- 4 points
4. Greece -- 0 points

Euro 2008 Preview--Group D (Part 1)

Apologies for the delay in getting this out, but here we go, it's the final group preview for Euro 2008. Next week, I'll make my predictions for the knockout rounds, with the quarterfinals on Monday, semifinals on Wednesday, and the final on Friday. That will lead us nicely into the weekend, when the second-largest international tournament in the world finally kicks off.

To start, here's the fixture schedule for Group D (all times Eastern):

June 10:
Spain vs. Russia (Noon; Tivoli-Neu Stadion, Innsbruck)
Greece vs. Sweden (2:45; Wals Siezenheim Stadium, Salzburg)

June 14:
Sweden vs. Spain (Noon; Tivoli-Neu Stadion, Innsbruck)
Greece vs. Russia (2:45; Wals Siezenheim Stadium, Salzburg)

June 18:
Greece vs. Spain (2:45; Wals Siezenheim Stadium, Salzburg)
Russia vs. Sweden (2:45; Tivoli-Neu Stadion, Innsbruck)

Greece:

2004 marked the first time that Greece had qualified for the European Championships in 24 years, so expectations were understandably tempered. Under the helm of a German, Otto Rehhagel, however, the Greeks pulled off the shock of all shocks by winning the whole thing, defying odds that had them as 150-1 underdogs to do just that.

Let’s be clear. Greece isn’t a traditional soccer nation and will never have the same prestige and talent that some other European countries do. They have a hard time qualifying for international tournaments, much less doing well in them, and we all know that what Rehhagel’s team was able to accomplish four years ago was a fluke. They didn’t even make it to the World Cup in 2006.

Under Rehhagel, though, Greece will never be blown out in a game and they’ll always have a fighting chance to take a positive result. He is a defensive-minded, disciplined coach whose teams are well-organized and have good camaraderie on and off the field. None of his players stand out that much more so than the others, so there’s never a problem with that “star complex” that we’ve seen with high-profile players like Didier Drogba or Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who, as the leader of Sweden’s front line, will be up against the stalwart Greek defense.

Greece breezed through qualifying for this tournament, but there were no other countries that posed any significant threat. The key players on this team are all in their late-20’s or early-30’s, so while they were in their prime in 2004 and in qualifying, I’m not sure how much they have left in the tank for this tournament.

With that said, this team’s strength has never been their pace and athleticism. They’ll slow the tempo down to a stand-still at times. They tackle hard and furiously, and they really try to lock down the middle of the field and make their opponents beat them from the wings.

Antonios Nikopolidis will be in goal and at 36 years of age, probably will be making his last significant international appearances for Greece, so you know he’ll want to go out in style. Much like David James, he can be impenetrable when on the top of his game, but he also is very susceptible to the odd calamity every now and then. He has two impressive, attack-minded full-backs ahead of him — Giourkas Seitaridis on the right, and right-footed Vasilis Torosidis on the left. In the middle, 6′5″ Traianos Dellas and Sotirios Kyrgiakos, only one inch shorter, should win most every aerial battle in the area.

In the midfield, I think we’ll see a compact, three-man group. Benfica’s Kostas Katsouranis is very versatile and has become a good all-around player from his roots as a true defensive midfielder, the captain, Angelos Basinas, is a field general that is also hard-nosed and can tackle, and little Giorgos Karagounis has the most creativity on the team and is great from the set piece.

Up front, Theofanis Gekas, who led the German Bundesliga in the ‘06-’07 in goal scoring with 20 and scored 11 this season in 26 league games at Bayer Leverkusen, will play in the middle, Ioannis Amanatidis will be on Gekas’ right and drop deep, and Angelos Charisteas, who scored the winning goal in the Euro 2004 final against Portugal, will drift to the left.

Greece absolutely must get to their third and final group game against Spain with four points already in the bag, because they have absolutely no chance of coming out of that match with anything and four points will be the minimum to progress.

Russia:

Guus Hiddink is one of the most underrated, under-appreciated coaches in the world and with him at the helm, Russia has a realistic chance to advance out of this group. Hiddink has taken his native Holland to the World Cup semifinals, South Korea to the same stage in 2002, and Australia to the Round of 16 in 2006, where the Socceroos were eliminated by Italy after a terrible refereeing decision, which resulted in a penalty kick, went against them late and allowed Italy to escape in a game in which they were easily the inferior team.

Hiddink is inventive (three different formations with those three nations in the World Cups), charismatic, and popular; he is already in demand as his contract with Russia will expire after this tournament. He led Russia to this tournament from a group that included England, Israel, and Ukraine, so he’s already playing with house money in the sense that Russia was no lock to reach this point, especially having not even gotten to the last World Cup.

Like him, this Russian squad is very underrated and is capable of causing a “surprise”, although calling it that would be a disservice to the Russians and their abilities. Igor Akinfeev is one of the best young goalkeepers in Europe; he plays for CSKA Moscow and had a clean sheet streak of 362 minutes in only his second campaign in the Champions League. At just 22 years of age, he is his nation’s present and future at that position.

Ahead of him is a solid back line, which is laden with competition for three of the four spots. There are the veterans — the Berezutskiy twins and Sergei Ignashevich, each of whom, like Akinfeev, play for CSKA Moscow – who may all start, but a capable, less experienced group made up in part by Denis Kolodin and Roman Shirokov, who plays for current UEFA Cup holders Zenit St. Petersburg, are challenging for starting positions as well. Alexander Anyukov, who also plays for Zenit, is the only sure bet in the back four and will be on the right, and if I had to guess, I would go with experience and familiarity and say that Ignashevich and Alexei Beruzutskiy will be in the center, with Vasili Berezutskiy at left back.

In the midfield, Hiddink has been using two holding midfielders — Konstantin Zyrianov, who scored the second goal in Zenit’s 2-0 victory over Rangers in the UEFA Cup final and the reigning Russian Footballer of the Year, and Igor Semshov. Ahead of those two is a group of three, normally led by an absolutely fantastic attacking midfielder, Andrei Arshavin, another Zenit player, but Arshavin is suspended for the first two group games and his absence will be a huge blow. On the right, the blindingly quick Vladimir Bystrov will give opposing defenses fits all game long, and the creative but more defensive-minded Yuri Zhirkov will play wide left.

On his own up front will be Roman Pavlyuchenko, who has carved out a very successful career in the Russian Premier League and has been either the top goal-scorer or the joint top goal-scorer in the division in the last two years for Spartak Moscow.

Arshavin’s presence will definitely be welcomed back in the third game but until then, Russia will need to find a way to make due. Coming up with four points against Spain and Greece would put them in a terrific position with Arshavin coming back, but three points is more likely. Russia’s last game is against Sweden, and it could be a winner-take-all 90 minutes.

The second half of this preview, covering Sweden and Spain and my final prediction for Group D’s standings, will be up by some point this evening, so make sure to check back later.