Premiership Preview--5. Aston Villa

Aston Villa surprised many neutrals last season, and probably even some of their own supporters, with their 6th-place finish. In 2006-2007, the Villans checked in at a respectable 11th, a nice improvement from 16th the season before. Villa's emergence, led by manager Martin O'Neill, came with one of the smallest, if not THE smallest, first team rosters in the Premiership. Fortunately for O'Neill, that roster was full of fresh legs, and they carried Villa in style to a place in this summer's Intertoto Cup.

The Birmingham-based club has now advanced to the UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round, where they'll meet FH, an Icelandic side that shouldn't provide much more than token resistance. If Villa does what they should do, they'll progress to the First Round proper.

O'Neill realizes he needs a deeper squad to account for the extra slate of games that the UEFA Cup will bring, and to make a serious run at a place in next season's Champions League. To wit, he's added five players and made permanent the acquisition of another, Curtis Davies. At least four of those six players will start for Villa this season, and five will see significant playing time.

Brad Friedel replaces Scott Carson, who had a terrific '07-'08 season on loan from Liverpool, in goal. Full-backs Luke Young (right) and Nicky Shorey (left) were both brought in yesterday for a combined $16 million. Young is the only pure right back on the roster with Olof Mellberg's departure and is coming off a solid season for Middlesbrough. Shorey takes the place of Wilfred Bouma, who started every game for Villa last season but suffered a horrific-looking dislocated ankle in the second leg of his team's Intertoto Cup Third Round tie against Odense BK on July 26. Bouma is scheduled to return just after Christmas if his recovery goes according to plan, but will now have competition for his old place. Curtis Davies' loan deal from West Brom was made permanent for nearly $20 million this summer. He is ahead of schedule on his return from a ruptured Achilles tendon on March 1 at Arsenal, having played 60 minutes in recent back-to-back friendlies. When fully fit, he'll compete with Zat Knight to start alongside Martin Laursen at center back at the very least, and he may very well win the job. Steve Sidwell never should've left Reading two summers ago; he had a season to forget last year at Chelsea, but his career could be revived at Villa.

O'Neill lost only one key piece -- Mellberg. The Swedish international was a fixture in Villa's back line and a rock on the right side. He didn't get forward like a traditional right back, but he won nearly everything in the air and just didn't make mistakes on defense. Carson went back to Liverpool as he was only on loan, and Liverpool wound up selling him straight away to West Brom for a discount price.

Villa is strongest in midfield, where the addition of Sidwell provides some insurance in case Liverpool does end up buying Gareth Barry before the transfer window closes. Ashley Young is a star-in-the-making on the left wing and very underrated by those outside of the club. He'll have more of a free role this season, and look for him to occasionally drift inside behind the strikers. If Barry stays, he'll play in the center. The versatility of Nigel Reo-Coker, a natural center midfielder, will allow him to shift to the right flank to accommodate Sidwell. Reo-Coker is nothing flashy but he's quick and as tenacious a ball-winner as they come. You'll see a few other players out there, though, too -- Shaun Maloney can play on either wing but typically is used to be a spark off the bench, Craig Gardner may get a chance, and Stiliyan Petrov can play either on the right or in the middle. Isaiah Osbourne provides solid cover in the center. Moustapha Salifou is a perfect fill-in for Sidwell. Wayne Routledge, like Maloney, is a speedy little winger but prefers to play on the right.

Projected Starting Lineup (4-4-2/4-3-1-2):
GK: Friedel

RB: Young
CB: Laursen
CB: Knight
LB: Shorey

*RMF/RCMF: Reo-Coker
**CMF/LCMF: Barry (captain)
CMF: Sidwell
*LMF/AMF: Young

ST: John Carew
ST: Gabriel Agbonlahor

*When Villa plays a 4-3-1-2, Young is the "1", with Barry, Sidwell, and Reo-Coker (L to R) as the "3". Because the attack-minded Sidwell is on board and they already have Young, they're more likely to use the 4-4-2. Remember, though, when Villa hit a great run of form towards the end of last year, O'Neill did use the 4-3-1-2.

**If Barry does leave, either Reo-Coker, the current vice-captain, or Laursen will inherit the captain's armband. Reo-Coker will shift into the middle with Sidwell, and either Petrov or Maloney will start on the right. If it's Maloney, Villa will surely use the 4-4-2. If it's Petrov, Villa can play either formation.

It's not as confusing as I know I just made it sound, so don't worry.

Villa has already started their season; they knocked Odense out of Europe as I alluded to earlier. They next play in Iceland against FH on the 14th, and their Premiership season kicks off three days later with an interesting home game against Manchester City. A trip to Stoke City and the return leg with FH follows those two matches. O'Neill's side finishes up the month with another appetizing match at Villa Park, this one against Liverpool. In the corresponding fixture last season, Steven Gerrard won the game late with a magical free kick that was one of the year's best goals.

October brings Chelsea (away) and Portsmouth and Blackburn (both at home), as well as a visit to Wigan, a must-win game for the Villans.

Arsenal and Manchester United headline Villa's November slate, and the "Big Four" opponents come on successive weekends. Home games against Middlesbrough and Fulham should be straightforward, though the game at St. James' Park to start the month is tricky.

Interestingly enough, Villa closes out the season with their most difficult stretch and their easiest stretch back-to-back. In a five-game span that comprises all of March and half of April, they'll play Man City (away), Tottenham (home), Liverpool (away), Manchester United (away), and Everton (home), but they follow that run with West Ham at home, Bolton away, Hull City at home, Fulham away, Middlesbrough away, and Newcastle at home to finish up.

Bottom Line: Holding on to Barry would be a major boost for Villa and at the same time, losing him would be a big loss. The increased number of games that comes with playing in Europe will test Martin O'Neill and the resolve of his team. There is plenty of talent on the roster so expect the team to be in the top six with or without their current captain. If they have him, though, they can compete for 4th place. American chairman Randy Lerner has pledged more money to O'Neill if he wants to go out there and buy a couple more pieces, and I'd expect the manager to strengthen this squad a little bit more in the back.

Manchester City Draws FC Midtjylland, Aston Villa Draws FH in UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round

The draw for the UEFA Cup Second Qualifying Round was conducted this morning, and the two English clubs involved at this stage in the competition couldn't have come away happier. Both should defeat their respective Scandinavian opponents and advance to the First Round without too much difficulty.

After seeing off EB/Streymur in the last round, Manchester City will open this tie at home against FC Midtjylland. The Danish club finished second in their domestic league last season and have 4 points after 2 games so far in the '08-'09 campaign. Here in the US, they're most well-known for having former LA Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes defender Danny Califf on the roster. Califf has carved out a nice career for himself in Denmark, having just moved to Midtjylland after spending two seasons at Aalborg BK, where he was the captain and and played in an Intertoto Cup with the club. He's played both of Midtjylland's games so far and has 20 caps for the US National Team.

Aside from Califf, there's no real recognizable name unless you're a fan of the club or the Danish Superliga. Three players on the roster, including Califf, have represented their countries at the senior level, and five Nigerians can be found on the first team.

As I said earlier, City should progress with relative comfort. Mark Hughes would like his side to effectively end the tie in Manchester before going to Denmark for the return game, so expect him to field a full-strength side on August 14 in the first leg.

Villa is coming off a 3-2 aggregate victory against pesky Odense BK, another Danish side, in the Third Round of the Intertoto Cup. Their 1-0 second leg victory was marred by a horrific injury to left back Wilfred Bouma, who looks likely to miss the first half of the upcoming Premiership season with a dislocated ankle.

Their opponent in this tie is Icelandic club FH, short for Fimleikafélag Hafnarfjarðar (you can see why no one uses their full name!). They finished 2nd in the 2007 Úrvalsdeild Karla, Iceland's top flight, season, and sit on top of the league by a point this year after 13 of 22 games. Because of Iceland's harsh winter climate, the league schedule runs from May to September, so FH will be in full form against a Villa side just getting the new season underway.

That advantage still won't be enough for FH, however. The club is comprised solely of Icelandic players outside of two Danes, and needed a 5-1 victory in the second leg just to put away CS Grevenmacher from Luxembourg in the First Qualifying Round. Villa has the quality to finish this thing up in the first game. With the small first team roster that Martin O'Neill has right now, I wouldn't doubt that he'll use a number of backups and young players in the second leg if the end result isn't in doubt.

Villa and FH have both requested the order of games to be switched; right now, the first leg would be played at Villa Park with the return match at Kaplakriki, which holds 6000 spectators but seats only 2200. According to a press release on Villa's official website, "both clubs must now speak to their individual football associations before making a formal request (to swap home games) to UEFA."

Here's the complete draw, with all first legs to be played August 14 and the second legs played exactly two weeks later on the 28th. Teams listed first are home first:

Southern-Mediterranean Region
Široki Brijeg vs. Beşiktaş
Braga vs. Zrinjski Mostar
Lokomotiv Sofia vs. Borac Čačak
Vojvodina vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv
Aris Thessaloniki vs. Slaven Belupo
Litex Lovech vs. Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Deportivo vs. Hajduk Split
APOEL vs. Red Star Belgrade
Vllaznia Shkodër vs. Napoli
Maccabi Netanya vs. Cherno More
Omonia vs. AEK Athens

Central-East Region
Liepājas Metalurgs vs. Vaslui
Zürich vs. Sturm Graz
Stuttgart vs. Győri ETO
Lech Poznań vs. Grasshopper
Slovan Liberec vs. MŠK Žilina
WIT Georgia vs. Austria Wien
Young Boys vs. Debrecen
Legia Warsaw vs. FC Moscow
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk vs. Bellinzona
Interblock Ljubljana vs. Hertha BSC
Sūduva vs. Red Bull Salzburg

Northern Region
Djurgården vs. Rosenborg
Queen of the South vs. Nordsjælland
Gent vs. Kalmar
Manchester City vs. FC Midtjylland
Honka vs. Viking FK
Haka vs. Brøndby
Stabæk vs. Rennes
Copenhagen vs. Lillestrøm
Elfsborg vs. St. Patrick's Athletic
Aston Villa vs. FH

The 32 winners from this round will advance to the First Round, in which they'll join the 32 teams that are already entered and the 16 losers in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round. The draw for the First Round will be made on August 29, and you can find full coverage of that here on English Soccer Talk.

Ashley Young's Goal Against Odense BK

A summer filled with video highlights here continues with Ashley Young’s stunning goal in Aston Villa’s 1-0 victory over Odense BK yesterday. The win sealed Villa’s place in the UEFA Cup second qualifying round, and Young sent the home crowd into raptures with this right-footed drive from his usual left wing position.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I won’t stop until people give this guy more love. Ashley Young was the best, and let me repeat, the best, winger in the Premiership last season after Cristiano Ronaldo, and although the players obviously agree with me as Young as voted into the PFA Team of the Year, far too many fans don’t appreciate how good of a player this guy truly is.

Believe me, I’m not praising Young simply because of this goal. Check the archives; I’ve been high on him ever since Villa’s first game of the ‘07-’08 season, at home to Liverpool. You can see a sampling of his quality here, but even this terrific goal doesn’t begin to do justice to Young’s full array of abilities. As the commentator on the video says, he is such an exciting player to watch, and you can mark it down here first: If England qualifies for World Cup 2010, Young will be a starting winger for the Three Lions come kickoff in their first group match.

Martin O'Neill Would Be Wise To Play Barry This Weekend

In one of my recent poll questions, which you can find on the left-hand side of the homepage underneath the blog archive, I asked which story you believed to be the biggest so far this summer. One of the choices was Gareth Barry and his desire to leave Aston Villa for Liverpool, and although I can't remember the exact number, it got its fair share of votes.

Villa is a club on the rise, with young but underappreciated stars in Ashley Young (I can't emphasize enough just how high I am on him), and Gabriel Agbonlahor, and some very useful players like John Carew, Nigel Reo-Coker, Martin Laursen, and Wilfred Bouma. They had the smallest senior roster in the Premiership last season, but the quality of their young players and middle-aged veterans was enough to surprise many outsiders.

Losing Scott Carson and Olof Mellberg is a tough blow for manager Martin O'Neill, who led this team to a 7th-place finish last year and a place in the Intertoto Cup this summer, but he's already been working the transfer market, bringing in Steve Sidwell from Chelsea and Brad Guzan from Chivas USA. O'Neill is also actively shopping for a right back, and is close to acquiring Brad Friedel from Blackburn if you choose to believe various reports.

Barry is Villa's captain and has spent just over a decade at the club. He has established himself as one of the top central midfielders in the Premiership, catapulting into England's starting lineup alongside Owen Hargreaves in the process. He's also capable of playing left back and on the left in a diamond-shaped midfield, and that kind of versatility is always a plus.

As I'm sure all of you read or heard about a couple weeks ago, Barry was banned from training and club premises by his manager and fined $120,000 (two weeks' salary) basically in response to Barry's public comments regarding his desire to move to Liverpool. Barry has made it fairly clear that he'd like to go to Anfield and play in the Champions League with his good friend, Steven Gerrard, and questioned O'Neill's commitment to bringing in more firepower.

Barry also called O'Neill out right after Euro 2008, saying the manager had time to be a television pundit but not to reach out and communicate with his captain. Liverpool and Villa have been discussing a transfer all summer long, but the two clubs haven't been able to agree on cash valuations or player swaps combined with cash to get the deal done. O'Neill has admitted that although he would like Barry to stay, for the right price, he could leave.

On July 16, though, Barry returned to training, three days before Villa went to Denmark and picked up two critical away goals in a 2-2 draw against Odense BK in the third round of the Intertoto Cup. An obviously unfit Barry didn't play in that game -- Stiliyan Petrov got the start in the holding role behind Steve Sidwell -- but did appear in Villa's friendly victory against Walsall two days ago. He was booed, and maybe rightfully so, by his club's supporters, but played an hour in his effort to work towards full match fitness.

The second leg of the Villa-Odense tie will be played this Saturday in England, with the hosts needing either a victory or a 0-0 or 1-1 draw to advance to the UEFA Cup second qualifying round. O'Neill said today that he was considering playing Barry in the upcoming game:

"I think that in terms of fitness the game on Tuesday will have brought Gareth on, so if he's mentally tuned in and he wants to go and play, why not?

'He will be in contention for Saturday. He's a quality player and that's what we're looking for. I have never not been impressed with him in two years as to his attitude on the football pitch.

'In fairness the Intertoto gives us that chance to get into the UEFA Cup, which we set out to get into by one way or another, and Gareth was a major part of that last year."

He then added:

"Deep down we would all love him to stay at the football club. We haven't heard back from Liverpool for some time and we're not exactly sure where we all stand.

'When people say people are in limbo, I don't think that applies to anybody more than ourselves. We don't know whether to move forward or not with it. It's a long-running saga and I wouldn't mind it ending one way or another.

'My preference - and hopefully I'm speaking for a lot of Villa fans, if not all of them - is that we would like Gareth to stay at the football club. That would be great because it will be hard to replace him."

So, where does that leave us?

O'Neill should insert Barry into the starting eleven for Saturday's match. As the manager, his responsibility is to field the lineup he believes gives the team the best possible chance to get the result. There is no question that Gareth Barry is one of Villa's best players and would immediately bring that cool, savvy demeanor into an otherwise young and inexperienced -- at least in European competition -- team. He links up very well with his wide players, Young and some combination of Nigel Reo-Coker, Shaun Maloney, and even Agbonlahor on occasion, but also takes corner kicks and free kicks from the right side. Villa is deadly off the set piece with Laursen, Carew, and Zat Knight in the air, and Barry's in-swinging balls are always dangerous.

By playing Barry, O'Neill is also forcing Liverpool's hand, saying that unless Rafa Benitez comes up with a satisfactory offer to meet the valuation, Villa simply won't sell and will retain the services of their captain. Liverpool seems to want Barry desperately for some reason (if you go back to early May in the blog archive, you'll see why I don't believe he's a necessary piece to Liverpool's puzzle), so they're going to have make a decision sooner rather than later. The closer we get to the start of the Premiership season, the more Villa can dictate the situation and the more they can raise the desired price.

I think you'll find that as we move forward, the mutual hard feelings between Barry and O'Neill, which seem to be more of disappointment than anything else, will begin to evaporate. If Barry stays at Villa, the fans will eventually welcome back one of their club's most loyal players. They don't seem to understand or appreciate that when players want to change teams, it's usually business more than it is personal. Liverpool would be able to pay Barry more and give him a chance to compete in the Champions League, but that doesn't mean Barry has lost his love for Villa and his respect for their fans.

Martin O'Neill should bring Gareth Barry back into the fold this weekend. The Birmingham-based club have the ability to break into the top four with just a couple more impact signings, definitely at right back and possibly at right wing, and need a bit more depth. They have the talent right now to be a serious contender in the UEFA Cup. I believe Barry will get his wish to play in the Champions League at some point, and possibly next season for Villa if he stays where he is now.

It all starts on Saturday, though, and I'm extremely interested to see whether or not the skipper is leading the team out of the tunnel.

Update (07/26 -- Noon): Barry is amongst the substitutes named by Martin O'Neill. He's opted to use the same starting lineup that drew 2-2 last week.

Update #2 (12:30 PM): Barry is coming on after a horrific-looking ankle injury to Wilfred Bouma. Barry presumably will go to left back, showing the versatility I mentioned earlier in this post.

Scott Carson’s Questionable Move to West Bromwich Albion

After yesterday’s posts, I’m sure you all know how much I hate the “silly season” and how I can’t stand to hear the constant gossip and rumor mill concerning player transfers during the summer. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean I don’t hear or read any of it; it’s everywhere and practically impossible to avoid.

Out of all the goalkeepers I’ve heard being bandied around thus far and/or ones that have already made moves — Brad Friedel, Gomes, Mark Schwarzer, Paul Robinson, Robert Green, etc. — Scott Carson is undoubtedly the best of the bunch. He’s also only 22 years old, and with the widely accepted notion that goalies don’t hit their peaks until their late 20’s/early 30’s, the sky could be the limit for Carson. He’s shown a lot of ability early in his career, and the potential to improve even more is clearly there.

That’s why I was surprised when I, to steal a line from U2 in “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”, heard the news today. Carson signed a four-year contract with West Brom, a newly-promoted team who paid Liverpool $6.5 million for his services, a fee that could rise to $7.5 million based on performance-related criteria.

Carson spent time on loan at Premiership bottom-feeders Sheffield Wednesday and Charlton Athletic before joining Aston Villa for the entirety of last season. As someone who watched Martin O’Neill’s club very often last year, I can tell you with 100% certainty that if it wasn’t for Scott Carson in goal, Villa wouldn’t have finished seventh in the league and be playing in European competitions in ‘08-’09. No one is as high on Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor, among others, as I am, but if all things were equal and Villa played exactly the same way last year with Stuart Taylor or Thomas Sorensen between the sticks instead of Carson, they’re not even a top-10 team, simple as that.

Carson was very impressive for the Birmingham-based club, probably the best English goalkeeper last season after Portsmouth’s David James, who revived his club and international career with his performances in goal. Carson thrust himself into the senior national team discussion after racking up 29 appearances at the U-21 level, second-most in England’s history.

Everyone remembers his competitive debut for England, when his horrible start allowed Croatia to jump out to a lead they wouldn’t relinquish in do-or-die Euro 2008 qualifier for the Three Lions at Wembley, but I’m not sure why people would expect much more out of a young man being thrust into a high-pressure situation like that for the first time in his life. The truth of the matter is after those early mistakes, he actually played reasonably well for the rest of the game and gave England a chance to overcome the deficit.

West Brom is going to struggle to stay up next year, to say the least. I don’t want to give too much away now regarding my Premiership picks, but suffice it to say that I believe the three teams who got promoted from the Championship last season are going to have a very short stay in England’s top division. Out of those three, West Brom has the best chance to survive, but let’s be honest. Take a look at their squad right now, even with the summer signings that have cost the club $27.5 million, and tell me who, besides Stoke City and Hull City, they can finish ahead of. Fulham? Maybe, but I don’t think so. Wigan? Nope. Sunderland? Not with Roy Keane at the helm.

Look, I understand that Carson had to leave Liverpool. He was never going to be their first-choice keeper, at least not as long as Pepe Reina was there. I get it. But West Brom is not good enough for someone who played basically every game for a European contender (Carson played 35 league games, he was ineligible for the two against Liverpool and missed another due to a red card, I believe) and at 22, established himself as, at the very least, a genuine candidate to be England’s next goalie after James calls it quits. If he would’ve waited just a couple more weeks, a possible player/cash swap involving him and Gareth Barry might’ve been on the cards between Liverpool and Villa.

He’s going to get peppered this year. No longer will he have stalwarts in Martin Laursen and Olof Mellberg ahead of him to win almost every ball in the air. Instead, he’ll have to rely on the likes of Pelé (no, not that one, the one from Cape Verde), Leon Barnett, and Marek Čech to clean up the mess in the back. Please. Give me a break.

I can’t see how this is going to be a good season for Carson and his development, but at least he’ll have plenty of work. I can’t see him staying at West Brom after this season and certainly not if they’re relegated. At that point, I’d expect him to head back to a bigger Premiership club, one that has more to work with.

Liverpool Wants Gareth Barry--Why?

Numerous reports today have confirmed what has basically been common knowledge over the past couple of weeks: Liverpool is interested in signing Aston Villa's captain, Gareth Barry. Villa manager Martin O'Neill came out today criticizing Liverpool for publicizing this interest; a part exchange offer has been made for sure, with Peter Crouch, John Arne Riise, and/or even possibly Scott Carson as the likely candidates to go the other way. O'Neill, for his part, refused to confirm specifically what the offer entailed, but did obviously say that one was on the table.

My question? Why does Liverpool want Barry?

Make no mistake, this isn't meant to slam or to disparage Barry whatsoever. He's a terrific player and is Villa's heart and soul. He is good friends with Liverpool's captain, Steven Gerrard, from their days breaking into the England squad at a young age. He is very versatile, capable of playing left back and on the left side of midfield, although he is more comfortable right in the center of the park where he's starred for Villa this year. He's approaching his 400th career appearance for the club and has already qualified for a testimonial recognizing a decade spent at Villa Park. At 27 years old, Barry is in the prime of his career.

No, Gareth Barry has had an outstanding season and I can see why a big club would be interested in him.

Not Liverpool, though. Rafa Benitez's team has a plethora of center midfielders in Gerrard, Javier Mascherano, Lucas, Xabi Alonso (who may leave in the summer), the young Damien Plessis, and even Yossi Benayoun, who is natural in the middle but has been used on the wing by Benitez this season.

Would Barry play at Liverpool? He's a very, very good player, but this move seems like Steve Sidwell to Chelsea last summer all over again. If Alonso doesn't go, Barry would probably be no better than the fourth choice in the center and be rotated constantly. He doesn't need that in his prime; he needs to be starting every game and wearing Villa's armband for years to come. Moving to Liverpool may hamstring his recently reignited England career under Fabio Capello, who has made it clear that if you don't play regularly for your club, you won't be playing for the Three Lions.

Liverpool should be interested in a player from Aston Villa, but Gareth Barry isn't the one, and Barry shouldn't want to go to Liverpool either.

So, who do I think Liverpool should go after?

None other than my man Ashley Young, who is probably my favorite player in the league. He can play on both wings, though he's mostly played on the left this season before being given a free role recently by O'Neill. He is a great set-piece taker, arguably better than Gerrard. He has great pace and technical ability and at 22, is still developing. He's got seven goals and 17 assists this season and was nominated for the PFA Young Player of the Year award.

Think about it, it makes sense. Where are Liverpool's holes? At the full-back position, of course, but really on the wings. Sure, Ryan Babel is fine on the left, but he's more of a striker. Jermaine Pennant is rubbish, Dirk Kuyt has very little natural ability even though he's a workhorse, Benayoun isn't dynamic enough to beat anyone on the flank and cause much trouble, and Harry Kewell will be leaving.

Everything runs through Alonso, Mascherano, and Gerrard for Liverpool, and then up through the center to Torres. They're an extremely one-dimensional team and signing Barry would just reinforce that notion. Young, on the other hand, would give them a real threat on the left side and would allow Babel to move to the right, which would be helpful for a guy who's predominantly right-footed anyway. I guarantee you that would be no faster combination of flank players in the Premiership than Babel and Young, and they would be absolutely deadly out wide. Young would walk straight into that starting XI and provide something for Liverpool that they haven't had in recent seasons -- a true winger.

With that said, I just don't see any way that O'Neill would let Ashley Young leave right now after the season he's had. I think his performance this year has driven his price up in the neighborhood of 20 million pounds, and that's no joke. Liverpool probably doesn't have that type of money to spend, although he is worth it, and Villa would be reluctant to let him walk for any less than that. Barry would be a cheaper alternative, but I don't see why Liverpool believe they need another center midfielder.

In the end, I believe Barry will remain at Villa and I can't see Young going anywhere, although both of them certainly have the ability to play for a "Big Four" club. Villa is a club on the rise and, mark my words, WILL be challenging for fourth place in the Premiership next season if Barry does stay. If you're a Liverpool fan, you have to hope your club goes after some wide players, both in the back and on the wing, and you certainly don't need another guy clogging up the middle.

And The Winner Is...

Two weeks ago, I announced the five nominees for my Premiership Manager of the Year award. Amongst the five were a Scotsman (David Moyes), an Irishman (Roy Keane), a gentleman from Northern Ireland (Martin O'Neill), a Spaniard (Juande Ramos), and a voyeur...excuse me, a Frenchman (Arsene Wenger).

That list was then narrowed down to three "semifinalists", as I dropped Ramos and Wenger from contention. The original plan was to name the winner two days later, but as you all know, I made a change and delayed the announcement until today, when two more rounds of games were played. As far as the winner goes, I really saw all I needed to see this weekend.

Don't get me wrong, I think each of these three managers have done a terrific job at their respective clubs this season. One of them has stood out above the rest, however, and so without further ado, here he is, my 2007-2008 Manager of the Year:

Drumroll please...

It's Aston Villa's Martin O'Neill!

I chose this specific picture of O'Neill because I think it is a great representation of the type of manager he is. We saw it after each of his team's five goals yesterday against Birmingham, this is a guy who is a players' coach and his team absolutely loves playing for him.

You can tell a lot about a manager by observing what he does after his team scores a goal; Sir Alex Ferguson has the same, exuberant celebration every time, Steve Bruce hops around a lot, Arsene Wenger pumps his fist a few times, Kevin Keegan leaps out of the dugout when Newcastle bags one, and they're all good, good managers. On the other side of the coin, you have guys like Rafa Benitez and Avram Grant, who seem almost disappointed when their their sides put one on the board. By no means are those two men bad managers, but again, it's telling that a high player turnover rate either has been or will be a constant in their tenure.

O'Neill takes it to a whole other level. He's the only manager from what I can tell who actually wears cleats on the sideline, showing his solidarity with the players. He jumps seemingly four or five feet off the ground when Villa scores, races down the touchline, and then runs back again.

"OK, that's fine, but what has O'Neill actually done to deserve this award?"

Well, I'll tell you. He has one of the smallest, if not the smallest, first team rosters in the Premiership. Only 16 field players have started a league game for the Villains this season and of those 16, nine have started 20 matches or more in the Premiership and 12 have started ten or more.

He also has one of the youngest first team rosters in the league. I joke all the time that he basically has half of England's U-21 team but the reality is, these are now players who are on the verge of the senior national team based on their performances this season, my man Ashley Young and Gabriel Agbonlahor chief among them.

Villa finished in 11th place last year and have a legitimate chance to wind up 5th this season. They've already improved on their 2006-2007 win total (11) by five, with three games left to play. A victory at Everton this weekend and the Birmingham-based club will almost assuredly be playing in Europe next season, either the Intertoto Cup to get into the UEFA Cup or straight into the continent's second-tier club tournament.

You also can't underemphasize Villa's two wins over Birmingham in the Second City Derby this year, and the 5-1 victory yesterday was a complete thrashing. Any time you can beat your hated rivals twice in one season, that's an accomplishment, no matter where either team sits in the standings.

O'Neill has shown an ability to make tactical adjustments on the fly, something that is key in a manager. His recent formational switch to a 4-3-3 has helped to net 15 goals in Villa's last three games. Villa's reputation as a set-piece monster also comes straight from the manager, who oversees that in training every day. Sure, it helps to have great aerial threats like John Carew, Olof Mellberg, and Martin Laursen, and a couple of fantastic dead-ball takers in Ashley Young and Gareth Barry, but success and execution still has to start from the manager.

Martin O'Neill, ladies and gentlemen, my 2007-2008 Premiership Manager of the Year.

For those who are interested, I had Moyes in second and Keane winning the Bronze.

Young Makes Case for England Call-Up

Watching today’s edition of the Second City Derby, won in style 5-1 by Aston Villa, one had to have been impressed with the victors. They scored from open play and set pieces. They ran Birmingham ragged from start to finish. Ever since manager Martin O’Neill altered his team’s formation to a 4-3-3, they’ve been almost unstoppable in the league and it continued this afternoon.

The one player who appears to have benefited the most from this change is Ashley Young, who I’ve been high on ever since watching him play against Liverpool during the first weekend of the 2007-2008 season. O’Neill has given his star 22-year old, who was acquired from Watford for nearly $20 million, a free role now, instead of playing him solely on the left wing.

Make no mistake, Young was having a great season before today’s game, in which he scored twice and got an assist after swinging in a free kick to John Carew. He’s been nominated for the PFA Young Player of the Year award, and although he won’t win it, the acknowledgement of his play by his peers counts for a lot. He and teammate Gabby Agbonlahor, also nominated, are up against the likes of more established superstars like Cristiano Ronaldo and Fernando Torres.

Still, Young’s new role allows him to roam all over the field and we saw that today. He was everywhere; he scored his first goal in the center of the field, his second cutting in from the left, and his through ball that sprung Gareth Barry, who then assisted Carew for Villa’s third tally, was played on the right side. Young is up to seven goals and 17 assists in the Premiership this season.

I’ve said this so many times, this is a two-footed player with great pace, good technical ability, and is a deadly crosser of the ball, both from open play and on the set piece.

In addition to my admiration for him, which, admittedly, doesn’t count for much, you have to think England boss Fabio Capello shares the same sentiment, or at least close to it. Capello was in attendance at Villa Park today and although you couldn’t tell from his facial expressions, he undoubtedly was pleased with what he saw from Young.

Capello has a plethora of right-sided wingers to choose from — David Bentley, David Beckham, Aaron Lennon, Shaun Wright-Phillips, etc. — but really doesn’t have many options on the left aside from Stewart Downing. In my opinion, Young is a much, much better and more complete player than the Middlesbrough stalwart, and does seem like the future at that position for England.

England’s next game is Wednesday, May 28, against the US at Wembley, and then they’ll make a trip to Trinidad and Tobago four days later. Expect to see Ashley Young in the starting lineup in at least one of those friendlies, if not both. He deserves a call-up, and I think he’ll get it.

Everton Misses Chance to Solidify 5th Place

I've been harping on the race for the UEFA Cup spots all season, especially lately since it looks like only two (one through league finish, one possibly through the Intertoto Cup) and possibly three (depending on UEFA Fair Play table results) teams will qualify for Europe's second-tier club competition. Results in the Carling Cup and FA Cup haven't really helped teams from 5th-10th place this season but have created a battle to finish in 5th and 6th.

Everton squandered an opportunity to really put a stranglehold on 5th today after their 1-1 draw with West Ham. Portsmouth, in 6th place, and Aston Villa, in 7th, both lost to lower-placed teams earlier in the day and with a win, Everton could've gone nine points clear of Pompey and ten of Villa, Blackburn, and Manchester City, which effectively would've ended the chances of those last three teams to finish 5th. Instead, Dean Ashton's equalizer for the Hammers (which Tim Howard should've saved) earned the East London club a share of the spoils and left the door open for the four teams I just mentioned.

There's a big difference between a 7-8 point and 9-10 point deficit, especially with so few games remaining in the season to bridge that gap. I'm not saying that Everton isn't in the driver's seat, but they had the opportunity to slam the door on three of the teams nipping at their heels and couldn't get the job done. The Toffees should've beaten West Ham, a team that has been awful lately and has nothing to play for, soundly at home today but they didn't.

Now, Portsmouth and Aston Villa have a decent chance to catch Everton because Liverpool’s second-most famous club has a difficult schedule to close out the season, one that includes a critical game against Villa and games against Chelsea, city rivals Liverpool, and Arsenal.

Portsmouth, by comparison, gets to play Wigan, Newcastle, Fulham, and Middlesbrough down the stretch, and their “toughest” game could very well be at West Ham, which is certainly winnable. Of course, Portsmouth could also qualify for the UEFA Cup by winning the FA Cup, which they would do if they beat Coca-Cola Championship side West Bromwich Albion at Wembley on April 5 and then either Barnsley or Cardiff City in the final on May 17.

Villa, as previously mentioned, have a chance to gain three points back against Everton when the two teams meet on April 27, and they also play Bolton, Derby, and Wigan. Their most difficult game is at Old Trafford next week, but Manchester United is their only remaining opponent outside of Everton in the top 9 in the standings.

Everton could’ve gone a long way towards sealing 5th place today. They didn’t. Will they regret it? It’s possible.

Pompey-Villa Looms Large Tomorrow

With all the hype surrounding the respective Champions League and UEFA Cup draws today, the Premiership seems to be flying under the radar a little bit and one game in particular tomorrow has huge implications.

Portsmouth will welcome fellow UEFA Cup spot hopeful Aston Villa to Fratton Park and the hosts are playing very well at the moment, having won five out of their last six games in all competitions. Jermain Defoe has been great for Pompey with five goals in as many league games since moving to the South Coast in January. His team is in 7th place in the league right now, just two points behind Villa, and they won 3-1 at Villa Park earlier in the season.

'Arry Redknapp is a very underrated manager in my opinion. This is a man who saved Pompey from near-certain relegation two seasons ago when he took the reins in mid-season and has compiled a 42-35-24 record in his second stint in charge at Portsmouth. While this doesn't look too impressive in itself, remember, Redknapp has had to rebuild this team and was only given significant financial backing to buy players last summer; he really had to create something out of nothing in the season and a half before and Pompey still finished 9th in '06-'07.

Similarly, Martin O'Neill hasn't had as much money to work with as he'd like at Aston Villa but has still done an impressive job this season with one of the smallest (in terms of numbers, not size) rosters in the Premiership. It's very likely that Randy Lerner, Villa's American owner, will be willing to spend more money in the summer but for now, O'Neill is winning with essentially an England U-23 roster. He's got young guys like Premiership assist leader Ashley Young, who I've been banging the drum for before it was fashionable to do so, Gabby Agbonlahor, Scott Carson, Nigel Reo-Coker, Craig Gardner, and the now-injured Curtis Davies who have all been integral pieces to the puzzle this season, mixed in with some good, useful veteran players like John Carew, Martin Laursen, and Gareth Barry.

Villa has lost only once in their last eight league games, although four of those matches have been draws. As I said earlier, they lost to Portsmouth 3-1 at home earlier in the season and really can't afford to lose again tomorrow. Pompey has the same number of ties (7) at Fratton Park as they do wins and losses at home combined, and Villa's road record is the exact same (5-7-2).

The numbers scream "draw" tomorrow, but I'm going to go with a 2-1 victory for Portsmouth, which would vault them into 6th place, six points behind Everton pending the Toffees' away match at Fulham on Sunday.

Nightmare Saturday for Chelsea, UEFA Cup Spot Contenders

What a day.

For Liverpool, who are now just two points behind Chelsea for third place in the Premiership, although Chelsea have two games in hand, today couldn't be any better. Led by Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard, who have been carrying the team all year, the Reds strolled to a 3-0 win over Newcastle.

For Reading, who picked up a much-needed 2-0 victory over Manchester City and escaped the relegation zone in the process, today couldn't be any better either. The Royals now sit in 13th place in the league, which is a bit deceiving due to the small points gap between themselves and 18th place Bolton, but it's clearly a better position to be in then the one in which they came into today's match.

For a few other teams, however, today was a day they'd love to forget.

We'll start with Chelsea, who crashed out of the FA Cup in shocking fashion at now multiple giant-killers Barnsley. The FA Cup represented the last real chance for silverware for the West London club, because they're not going to win the Premiership and in my opinion are the fourth most likely team in England to win the Champions League, not even factoring in the rest of the continent. I'm not saying a third place finish in the league and deep cup/tournament runs wouldn't be respectable, but that's not acceptable to Mr. Abramovich. Avram Grant could very well be replaced in the role of manager this summer..

As refreshing as it was to see Barnsley, a lower-league side, knock off Chelsea and advance to the FA Cup Semifinals, teams like Aston Villa, Everton, Portsmouth, Manchester City, and Blackburn have to be disgusted with the way these cup competitions have gone this year. With Spurs winning the Carling Cup and no "Big Four" teams left in the FA Cup, two UEFA Cup spots (those usually given to the league's 6th and 7th place finishers) have vanished, although Portsmouth could very well make it into the UEFA Cup through their league position anyway, even though now they have to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the FA Cup.

The fight is on for 5th place in the Premiership now, and in my estimation, three teams--Aston Villa, Pompey, and Everton--have a legitimate chance to finish up the season there. Everton, of course, are currently in 5th with a five point lead on Villa and a nine point lead on Portsmouth, so it would take a poor run of games for Everton for either of those other two clubs to take that spot.

I already mentioned Liverpool's victory over Newcastle. Newcastle and losing badly seems to just go together very nicely these days..

Upset Alert

Alright, maybe this wouldn't be as big of a surprise as some people would think, but I like Aston Villa's chances to go to the Emirates and beat Arsenal on Saturday.

Martin O'Neill's young side has only lost twice on the road this season, and they gave Arsenal everything they had and more at Villa Park back on the 1st of December, although they lost 2-1. Villa is fully healthy as well, which counts a lot at this point in the year.

Arsenal aren't exactly playing too well right now as they're winless in their last three games. Emmanuel Eboue will be suspended for this match (frankly, Eboue is one of the dirtiest players in the league), and creative midfielder Tomáš Rosický is still out with a hamstring injury. There is also the question of whether or not the Gunners will be up for this game after the devastating injury to Eduardo da Silva last week.

I've got Villa returning the favor and continuing their quest for 4th place with a 2-1 victory.

Also, make sure to tune in to the Portsmouth-Everton game on Sunday. Both teams have legitimate European aspirations and the three points would be huge in a game of this significance.

Premier League Will Likely Receive Extra UEFA Cup Spot

England’s position on top of the UEFA Fair Play rankings, calculated using a number of different criterion such as avoidance of yellow and red cards, crowd behavior, and the performance of club teams and national teams in European competitions, could lead to another UEFA Cup spot next season.

England would need to maintain their current position ahead of Norway and Germany until the end of April, when the final standings will be determined.

This is great news for those teams fighting tooth and nail for position in the bottom 5 or 6 in the top half of the table. As things stand right now, places 4-10 are separated by only 10 points and places 5-8, the usual UEFA Cup spots, are separated by just three points.

England could potentially send five teams to Europe’s second-tier club competition next year. If Tottenham beats Chelsea in the Carling Cup final on the 24th, Spurs would clinch the automatic UEFA Cup berth that comes with it, but that would also take away a spot from another team. Three teams (5-7) usually qualify for the UEFA Cup through their final league position; the 5th place team is guaranteed and the 6th and 7th place teams get in as long as both of the FA Cup finalists and the Carling Cup winner have qualified for Europe already, which has been the case in recent years. Another team could go through if they take care of business in the Intertoto Cup during the summer. One more team could now go if England gets that Fair Play spot.

Confused yet? The bottom line is that it’s very likely that four teams will be in the UEFA Cup next year, and there’s a good possibility that five teams will be there. That is, if Chelsea’s John Obi Mikel doesn’t rock the boat by picking up a few red cards before the end of the season, which he could very well do.

Portsmouth, Aston Villa, Everton, Blackburn, Manchester City, and possibly even West Ham all now have to fancy their chances of playing in Europe next season. With the way these teams have played so far this year, I think they all deserve it as well.

I Told You So..Not Yet, but Soon

Listen. I’m not the type of guy to fake humility and modesty; when I predict something or hype something up beforehand and it comes to fruition, I’m the first person to stand up and say “Yeah, that’s right, I said that would happen.” I don’t see what’s wrong with that. To me, the majority of people who don’t say “I told you so” really want to, but they just don’t give in to that urge for the sake of wanting to appear humble. That’s it, it’s to keep up appearances so they don’t sound cocky.

Whatever. I don’t believe in that.

Go back and look at my preseason capsules for each Premiership team; I picked Fulham to finish 13th this year. Alright, I may have overestimated the players ex-manager Lawrie Sanchez brought in last summer. Upon further review, some of those players were more squad guys and depth guys than actual regular contributors. With that said though, this is all in hindsight. Steven Davis, Diomansy Kamara, David Healy, Aaron Hughes, and Chris Baird are all internationally-capped players. Healy holds the record for most goals scored in one European Championship qualifying campaign (13). Kamara averaged better than a goal every three games for West Bromwich Albion from 2005-2007. These acquisitions all seemed like legitimate, significant moves at the time, and they just haven’t worked out as well as I thought they would.

My preseason prediction was heavily influenced by a healthy Brian McBride and having creative midfielder Jimmy Bullard return from injury by Christmas, which was the timetable for his recovery from his severe knee injury, suffered on September 9, 2006 in a game against Newcastle, entering this season. McBride dislocated his knee–--ironically, while scoring a goal–--on August 18 and only made his return to the lineup today in the 2-1 win victory over Aston Villa as a late substitute. McBride, the captain, was coming off a fans’ player of the year 2006-2007 season in which he scored 12 league goals and really helped Fulham retain their Premiership status. Bullard started the 2006-2007 season for the Cottagers like a house on fire, winning two Man of the Match awards in his team’s first three games played. He was terrific for Wigan from 2003-2006 when he was at the JJB, playing an integral role in their promotion to the Premiership in 2004-2005 and spearheading his team’s run to the Carling Cup final the next year.

When I did my Christmastime season summaries for every team and their respective outlooks for the rest of the year, I again was counting on both McBride’s and Bullard’s return. As I said, that was the original mark for Bullard and after McBride’s injury, the estimated timetable for his recovery was around that same time as well. The Cottagers were in 13th place at the time I wrote their summary, so things were looking good for me.

But then, things didn’t exactly go according to plan. After Christmas (December 25) and before today’s victory, Fulham did not record a win. They slipped gradually down the standings from 13th place to 19th place, where they now sit. The returns of Bullard and McBride kept getting pushed back and pushed back and no hope looked to be in sight. At that point, I was preparing to eat my words and take the heat for predicting a mid-table finish.

Not so fast. New manager Roy Hodgson tapped into his Scandinavian connections and brought in five players from that region this January, including three from Finland, his most recent place of employment (as national team manager). Jari Litmanen was the most recognizable name of those five with his background at Ajax, Bareclona, and Liverpool, but some under-the-radar moves have really proved beneficial.

Norwegian center back Brede Hangeland was signed to help shore up the leaky defense corps and at 6′5″, is a force in the air. Hangeland won the SkySports Man of the Match award in his Fulham debut against Bolton on January 29, proving his worth instantly.

Danish midfielder Leon Andreasen played well today in the victory. Erik Nevland, a Norwegian striker, made his debut today after signing from FC Groningen, where he scored 53 goals in 116 league games. Two North Americans, Eddie Johnson (USA) and Paul Stalteri (Canada) were brought in as well to help address the club’s most glaring needs (up top and in the back). Toni “Bonecrusher” Kallio is another defender, capable of playing both center and left back, and has made 35 appearances for Finland.

Most importantly though, and we saw this today, Bullard and McBride are healthy again and back in the lineup. Bullard’s free kick late in the match was a thing of magic and a perfect way to take the three points. McBride entered the game as a sub and showed his value as a target man, playing with his back to goal, controlling long balls and then either nodding them down to teammates or to himself, followed by a pass to a teammate.

Aston Villa are a very, very good young team. I had them finishing 7th this season and look to be right on that line. This was a big win for Fulham today and with the mediocrity and downright poorness of some of the teams at the bottom of the table, I can honestly see Fulham making a real run towards safety. They’re simply a better team and have a more experienced manager than the likes of Birmingham, Wigan, and Sunderland, all sides ahead of them right now. Their poor run of form was duly noted, of course, but let’s be honest with ourselves. Two of their best players in Bullard and McBride were injured for that whole period of time. No club, no matter who it is, can survive long-term injuries to their top two players.

The Cottagers have two winnable games upcoming as they’re at Middlesbrough next week, followed by a home game against London rival West Ham. The Cottagers also still have Derby, Sunderland, Reading, and Birmingham on their schedule, and their two most difficult games (against Liverpool and Manchester United) both come at Craven Cottage.

Come May, if Fulham do what I think they will do and finish very close to 13th, believe me, I’ll be here saying “I told you so” and laughing at the rest of you who wrote them off as dead and buried by Christmas.

Changes Must be Made at Liverpool

If you had just walked into the room and didn’t know the score of today’s game between Aston Villa and Liverpool and saw the way Peter Crouch wheeled off to the corner after scoring an 88th minute goal, you’d probably think that he just won the Premier League for the Reds. In reality, the 6′7″ striker simply levelled the game for Liverpool at 2-2.

This, in a nutshell, is what’s wrong with Liverpool right now. The players and fans are satisfied with draws when they should win and losses when they should pick up a point. I’m not seeing any killer instinct from this team; they play the exact same way in the 17th minute that they do in the 81st minute, and quite frankly, that’s an uninspired style of soccer.

Rafael Benitez is–and here’s that word again–one of the most uninspiring, boring managers on the face of the earth. Every time the camera pans to him on the sideline, he’s bringing his arms closer together and screaming the word “compact” at his players. Hmm, compact. Compact like Steven Gerrard going out to play right back or left wing like he did today? No, I think not. That’s how you know something has to change. I think Rafa has lost the team in many respects. Liverpool’s fans will tell you that it was Rafa who won the Champions League for them in Istanbul a couple seasons ago, but they’re wrong. It was Steven Gerrard who led Liverpool to their fifth European Cup (…”18 leagues, that’s what we call history”…you’re right, it is HISTORY, it certainly isn’t the present) by putting the team on his back and carrying them to that historical comeback.

Say what you want about Liverpool’s American owners, say that they’re a huge distraction and that they don’t have the club’s best interests at heart, whatever. Here’s the reality of the situation. The owners have NOTHING to do with what happens on the field. Last time I checked, and I can go back and watch the game again, but Mr. Hicks and Mr. Gillett weren’t playing for Liverpool when they drew with Wigan at home, drew with Birmingham at home, drew with Spurs at home, and lost at Reading. Notice a theme here? A championship-caliber team like Liverpool and their fans claim themselves to be don’t draw in those type of games and they certainly don’t lose. I could care less what you have to say about the owners as it relates to Liverpool FC on the field because these are professional players, they get paid very handsomely to play a GAME, to play 90 minutes. When they’re between the touchlines, they don’t have the club’s owners in their minds; the only thing they’re thinking about is the game itself.

The owners aren’t going to leave even though that’s what most of the fans want (they want DIC apparently, good for them). Fans in England and across Europe don’t seem to understand the concept that owners don’t actually have to support their club. That’s not to say that the owners don’t want what’s best for the club, but the club isn’t like a childhood team that they rooted for; the club is a business enterprise in which they can make money, nothing more. Things aren’t like they used to be in your parents’ generation when clubs truly cared about their fans and the owners and chairmen were diehard supporters.

There’s something in the Red section of Merseyside when a draw at home against Aston Villa is considered to be a good result. Don’t get me wrong, Aston Villa are an impressive young side but a team as good as Liverpool say they are would win that game. Manchester United throttled Villa 4-1 earlier in the season. Liverpool simply aren’t good enough this year, that’s just a fact. It’s no anomaly that after 22 games, more than halfway through the season, that teams are where they are in the standings. Liverpool are the 5th best team in the Premier League but when you look at the actual talent on the roster, they should be no worse than 4th and possibly even 3rd.

This is why I believe Rafa has to go and I can’t put it any simpler than that. Liverpool have enough talent and capability to be so much better than they have been this year, and I put that squarely on Rafa’s shoulders. When a manager can’t blend a roster and shape it in a style that allows for the most possible success, he isn’t doing his job. I don’t believe for a second that the players enjoy playing for him because he’s one of the least friendly, distant managers I’ve ever seen. There’s a reason you hear Aston Villa’s players come out publicly and sing the praises of Martin O’Neill and that’s because they like playing for him; O’Neill takes the time to forge a relationship with his players beyond the soccer field and they respect that, whereas I’ve never once seen a Liverpool player back Benitez in that same fashion. There’s a reason you hear players at Manchester United talk about what a joy it is to play for Sir Alex Ferguson and players at Portsmouth do the same about Harry Redknapp, but you don’t hear Jamie Carragher or Steven Gerrard talk about Rafa in such a positive light.

If you’re a Liverpool fan, take a step back from the Rafalogy cult you’ve subscribed to and look at the situation your club is in. In a season that held high hopes and one in which Benitez stated that the Premiership title was his main goal, you’re in 5th place, 14 points behind Manchester United. You’ve crashed out of the Carling Cup and have been fortunate to draw the teams you’ve drawn in the FA Cup. You’ve got a tie against the second most impressive team in Europe this season in Inter Milan in the Champions League coming up and I’m not you’ll come out of that and advance. You’ve got a captain and center midfielder in Steven Gerrard who clearly, clearly isn’t buying into the system Rafa wants to employ.

Someone has to go, changes have to be made. It’s not going to be the owners and it’s not going to be Steven Gerrard, which means Rafa’s head is on the chopping block and the switch could be pressed at any moment.

Something has to be done, what’s it going to be?

Race for Fourth Place--Who Will Win?

After this weekend’s games, Liverpool, Everton, Aston Villa, and Manchester City (in that order) are all tied with 39 points and Blackburn is within reach at 36. Portsmouth are hanging on right now with 34 points but face a difficult month or so ahead as they’ve lost some key players to international duty in the African Cup of Nations.

Starting with whom I believe is most likely to snatch fourth place and the last Champions League place that comes with it and progressing to the least likely, here's a breakdown of the contenders:

Liverpool: I picked the Reds to finish third at the beginning of the season and while that may be out of reach now, I'm still going to stick with my guns and go with them to get back into the Champions League. Whether that's good enough for Rafa Benitez to keep his job is unclear at the moment, but in my opinion everyone involved would be better off if he left.

The squad he consistently rotates has more collective talent than any of the other contenders and boasts the two best players in that group of teams in Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. To me, it's that overall talent that will prevail despite Rafa's Premiership incompetence. As long as he puts those two players and Jamie Carragher in the lineup at the same time to form that spine right up the middle of the field, Liverpool have a good chance to win every single league game they play in. They have the huge advantage of hosting Manchester City (awful away from home), Everton, and Aston Villa and it's nearly impossible to win for visitors to win at Anfield.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa, aka the future England national team, have been very impressive at times this season. However, they may still be a season or two away from breaking into the ranks of the top four. I'm not sure if they're consistent enough to end up ahead of schedule this year. Are they the team that got walloped at home by Manchester United 4-1 or the side that has taken four points out of six from Chelsea? Games at Portsmouth, Manchester United, Arsenal, and West Ham will tell us. Ashley Young and Gabby Agbonlahor are stars in the making.

Portsmouth: The month of January and the beginning of February will be a make it-or-break it slate of games for Pompey. They've lost some important players (John Utaka, Kanu, Sulley Muntari) to the African Cup of Nations and need to tread water until those guys return. Luckily for the South Coasters, the schedule after early February shapes up nicely with home games against Fulham, Sunderland, Birmingham, Wigan, and Newcastle. Five games, must take 12 points (at least) to have a chance at finishing fourth.

Manchester City: If this club could win away from the Eastlands, they'd have a legitimate chance to wind up in fourth place. As it is, they've claimed full points on the road just twice in eleven games and that's not good enough to break the stranglehold on the top four. They lost at fellow contender Everton today and that's the type of game they simply can't afford to lose. The overall talent is there, the coaching is certainly there; the consistency is not.

Everton: The Tim Cahill Show is back on a roll after their 1-0 win over City (at Goodison Park) today. The Australian midfielder is the King of Clutch and for Everton to mount a serious challenge, he'll need to carry the load with Yakubu gone for at least the next month. The Yak's presence up top will be sorely missed and I'm not sure who they have (other than Cahill) to replace him. It certainly isn't Andy Johnson, at least not on a regular basis.

Blackburn: Out of all the teams battling for fourth place, let's be honest, Mark Hughes is getting the most from the least amount of talent. This is a group of experienced, veteran players who are the definition of "steady". Blackburn aren't flashy but they get it done. Difficult games against Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal are still to come, but the schedule is relatively light in March. Blackburn have five winnable games and need to take care of business to be in with a shout.

Season Summaries--8. Aston Villa

8. Aston Villa (My preseason prediction: 7th)

Sometimes it seems like Martin O'Neill has the entire England U-21 team out on the field when Aston Villa plays; the varying and important roles Gabriel Agbonlahor, Ashley Young, Luke Moore, Scott Carson, Craig Gardner, and Curtis Davies all have could make anyone who wants to put a limit of foreign players in the Premiership happy.

The first four young English players I just mentioned have all the potential to be future stars for both club and country, especially Ashley Young, in my opinion. Young is extremely quick, can play on both wings, take free kicks, and score goals. Agbonlahor has 5 goals in 12 Premiership games this season, and his emergence as well as that of Luke Moore, combined with the presence of John Carew, has relegated big summer signing Marlon Harewood to simply an afterthought.

Villa were eliminated at home in the 3rd Round of the Carling Cup by Championship side Leicester City, which has probably been their biggest disappointment of the year to this point. They've lost only once in their last 7 Premiership games and have suffered just 3 defeats all year (two of which came against Manchester United and Liverpool). Scott Carson's permanent move from Liverpool will really be a boost to Villa for years to come, and with him in goal along with the stable of young English talent amongst the field players, Aston Villa have a side that will be a contender sooner rather than later.

Premiership Preview--7. Aston Villa

7. Aston Villa finishing 7th place this season is going to be predicated on one thing--scoring more goals. Their total of 43 league goals in 38 games was good for just 12th best last season (they finished 11th overall), and was a major contributing factor to not finishing in a UEFA Cup spot. Villa closed out the season unbeaten in their last 9 games and in 10 of their last 11, but 6 of those games were draws, 5 of which were either 0-0 or 1-1. Winning just 3 of those 6 (while still getting a draw in the other 3) would've resulted in a 7th place finish and a place in Europe, but they couldn't score enough goals to get it done.

Aston Villa was raided for players this summer; Fulham and Bolton each signed two players who played for Villa last season, and Lee Hendrie went to Sheffield United. However, with all respect to the players that left Villa, none of them was the kind of player who left a gaping void in the club. Midfielder Steven Davis rejoined his former national team manager Lawrie Sanchez at Fulham, but he wasn't really factoring into Aston Villa's plans under manager Martin O'Neill. Another midfielder, Gavin McCann, is a reliable player when healthy, but numerous injury setbacks marred his time at Aston Villa and he made a move to Bolton. A reduction in playing time led defender Jlloyd Samuel to also leave for Bolton after playing for Villa since 1998, but he, too, was struck by the injury bug over the past couple seasons and the emergence of Wilfred Bouma at left back signaled the way out for Samuel. Aaron Hughes, Davis' teammate with Northern Ireland and that team's captain, also went to Fulham. Hughes is a very versatile player who can play anywhere in the back or in midfield and out of any of the players who left Villa, his departure hurts the club the most. However, full credit to Martin O'Neill and billionaire American chairman Randy Lerner for going out and spending some money to bring in two big-name, proven players to help address the club's weak areas. The addition of Marlon Harewood gives O'Neill four extremely capable striking options to choose from (Gabriel Agbonlahor, Harewood, Luke Moore, and John Carew). With West Ham since 2003, Harewood scored only 3 league goals last season, but averaged a goal every three games for them in his time there (47 goals in 142 league appearances). Nigel Reo-Coker looked disinterested at times with West Ham last season, but the former England U-21 captain is still only 23 years of age and possesses both excellent defensive and attacking qualities. He joins a midfield that is one of the best in the Premiership, maybe even the best of the teams that aren't part of the "Big Four". Captain Gareth Barry, the "Beast of "Birmingham" is a supremely talented ball-server from the left side, Stiliyan Petrov is solid, Patrik Berger revived his career with Villa last season after some outstanding play towards the end of the season, young players Craig Gardner, Isaiah Osbourne, and Shaun Maloney all have great potential, but the player who could turn out to be the best of the bunch is Ashley Young, who can operate as a striker or as a winger and has exceptional pace and quickness.

No month in the schedule stands out as being exceptionally difficult, but there's only one month that shouldn't give Aston Villa much trouble (November; home against Derby County, away to Birmingham and Middlesbrough). That game at Birmingham is the first Birmingham Derby of the season, and Villa will host Birmingham at Villa Park on April 20, the fourth-to-last game of the year. In the first three months of the season, Aston Villa will play three of the "Big Four", one in each month, but they all come to Villa Park (Liverpool, then Chelsea, then Manchester United). The last 6 games of the season are all winnable, with an away game at Everton the toughest of the bunch.

Bottom Line: Scoring goals shouldn't be a problem this season for Villa with the strikers that they have, coupled with no Juan Pablo Angel to give playing time to (he scored only 4 goals in 23 league appearances last season before moving to MLS). Villa allowed only 41 goals last season, but the defense has a few question marks aside from Olof Mellberg and Bouma. Goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen had to be helped off the field with an injury in a friendly at Toronto FC last week, and Villa will really need him healthy enough to start the season as they have to get out to a good start. I can't see Aston Villa finishing much higher than 7th, certainly no higher than 6th, and if they don't score like they should they could play their way out of a UEFA Cup spot.

Harewood to Aston Villa, Richardson to Sunderland

Marlon Harewood finally left West Ham officially today to sign a three-year contract with Aston Villa. The 27-year old striker scored 47 goals in 142 Premier League appearances with West Ham after joining the East London side from Nottingham Forest, and now gives Aston Villa four solid options at the striker position (Ashley Young, John Carew, and Gabriel Agbonlahor being the other three). Harewood may have been influenced by his old teammate Nigel Reo-Coker's move to Villa this summer. The transfer fee was $7.1 million US, which is a relatively cheap sum of money with the way strikers have been going this summer, especially when you consider Harewood is a proven goalscorer with the exception of this season.


Kieran Richardson moved to Sunderland yesterday, and I believe this signing will lead to nothing but good things for the newly-promoted club. Richardson was never given much of a chance with Manchester United as they had Ryan Giggs and Cristiano Ronaldo playing on the wings, and the champions' acquisition of Nani over the summer basically shut the door on Richardson's career in Manchester.

That said, he's still only 22 years old and at one time, Richardson was one of the hottest young prospects around. He's signed a four-year contract to play for his former teammate at Manchester United, Roy Keane, and like I said before, this could be a very rewarding move for both parties involved. Richardson needs to play regularly to improve and to reclaim a spot on the English national team and Sunderland will benefit from Richardson's pace and considerable talent. The transfer fee is rumored to be somewhere around $11 million US, but that's not an outlandish price for a still-young player who can really help Sunderland for the next four seasons.

Nigel Reo-Coker Set to Join Aston Villa

The former West Ham midfielder and current England U-21 captain (though he won't play another game for the side due to his age, 23) has reportedly agreed to a four-year deal which would keep him at his new club until after the 2010-2011 season. Official word is pending as Reo-Coker still has to pass a physical and agree to personal terms, but Aston Villa have reached an agreement with West Ham concerning his transfer fee.

Reo-Coker would become Villa manager Martin O'Neill's first summer signing and probably would be inserted immediately into the starting lineup. Together with Craig Gardner, who had an impressive season last year, and Isaiah Osbourne, Reo-Coker will become an integral part of a young, promising midfield at Aston Villa for years to come. He's already proved he is capable of being placed in a position of leadership as he's been a club captain (at West Ham) and an international captain (England U-21) at the young age of 23. This will be invaluable to Aston Villa as he'll be counted on to assist the current captain, Gareth Barry, in mentoring those young midfielders.

Thursday afternoon update: Reo-Coker has completed the transfer to Aston Villa as he passed his physical and agreed to personal terms. West Ham and Villa agreed to a $17 million US transfer fee for the 23-year old midfielder.