Champions League Quarterfinals Preview--Part 1

The first legs of the Champions League quarterfinal round are right around the corner. We'll see two games on Tuesday and the other two on Wednesday, and if you're a fan of the Premiership, you have to be happy with the situation right now. Four teams out of the eight remaining hail from England and of those four, three could very well advance to the semifinals.

Today, we'll take a look at the ties scheduled to open on Tuesday. My pick to progress is highlighted in bold.

1. AS Roma vs. Manchester United: This is one of the "dream ties" I wanted to see and a rematch of last year's quarterfinal, won on aggregate 8-3 by United. These two teams are well acquainted with one another as they also were in the same group this season, a group won handily by United.

It's really rather simple for Roma. If Francesco Totti doesn't play, and he is a "major doubt" for Tuesday's game, the Italian side has very little chance at advancing. Totti isn't just the straw that stirs Roma's drink, he is the drink. This is a guy who is one of the two or three best players in Europe right now (behind Cristiano Ronaldo and possibly Fernando Torres) and without him, I'm not sure if Roma has the firepower to overcome a United side that is working on all cylinders at the moment. If Totti is healthy, it's a different ballgame altogether and Roma would have a puncher's chance.

Roma need to win at the Stadio Olimpico, where they are 12-2-1 in Serie A, on Tuesday because they're not going to win in Manchester. It's also important to not concede an away goal to United, who have scored 27 of those in the Premiership, good for the second-highest total in the league.

Prediction: Roma won't be able to keep United off the scoreboard at home, and will get tonked at Old Trafford. Totti at 80-90% is good enough to beat a lot of teams, but United isn't one of them. 1-1 in Rome, 3-1 in Manchester -- 4-2 aggregate

2. Schalke 04 vs. Barcelona: With no disrespect meant to Schalke, Barcelona got the easiest possible draw in this round. Schalke are in a dogfight just to finish in a Champions League spot in the Bundesliga and scoring goals is a problem for them.

Barcelona will be without the services of Lionel Messi, but I honestly don't think it'll matter too much in this tie. The Spanish giants score for fun (60 goals in 30 league games) and while their road form is a bit of a concern, they more than make up for that at the Camp Nou.

Kevin Kuranyi needs to come up with two all-world performances for Schalke to have much of a chance, and by that I mean 3 or 4 goals in these two games. The problem? In Schalke's last five Champions League games, they've scored a combined four goals. Ouch.

Prediction: Schalke will get something at home but won't be able to stop Barca from scoring. The return leg, however, won't be pretty for the German club. 1-1, 3-0 -- 4-1 aggregate

Check back tomorrow for a brief look at the ties set to commence on Wednesday, Arsenal-Liverpool and Fenerbahçe-Chelsea.

Update (Monday afternoon): Roma's talisman, Francesco Totti, has been officially ruled out of tomorrow's first leg against Manchester United due to injury. Mirko Vucinic will take his place.

Champions League Quarterfinal + Semifinal Draw--Live

No time for intros, I'm doing homework at the moment and have class at 9 this morning, so I'm just going to list what's been drawn so far. The quarterfinal ties are scheduled to be played April 1/2 and 8/9, and the semifinal ties are scheduled to be played April 22/23 and 29/30. More analysis later.

Quarterfinal round; first leg home team listed first; Premiership teams highlighted in bold:

Arsenal vs. Liverpool
AS Roma vs. Manchester United
Schalke 04 vs. Barcelona
Fenerbahçe vs. Chelsea

Semifinal round; same things as before apply:

Arsenal/Liverpool vs. Fenerbahçe/Chelsea
Schalke 04/Barcelona vs. AS Roma/Manchester United

My Dream Champions League Quarterfinals Draw--Part 2

3. Chelsea vs. Barcelona: The Special One, Mr. Mourinho, would look at this tie with special interest as his old club, Chelsea, takes on his possible new club, Barcelona. It would certainly be a contrast of styles as the Premiership side doesn't exactly play a visually stunning brand of soccer, and Barcelona has four or five players who seem like they can score almost at will. This competition is likely the last chance for real silverware for both teams, and that sense of desperation would liven this tie up quite nicely. The winner of this tie would play the winner of...

4. Liverpool vs. Schalke: Ok, I'll admit, this isn't a dream pairing, but these are the only two teams left. Ideally, I'd like to see Liverpool play another English team in this round and have Schalke play Fenerbahçe so that one of the two underdogs could reach the semifinal, but I'd more rather see Fenerbahçe and all the English teams play the opponents I already talked about. The bonus? Well, Liverpool would likely win this tie and then the ensuing semifinal against either Chelsea or Barcelona would be quality.

Schalke are currently in 5th place in the Bundesliga and need to finish in 3rd to get back into the Champions League. Places 2-7 are separated by only seven points, so it brings up a dilemma for the German side: Do they want to go for it all in the CL this year and risk tiring out their players for the stretch run of the season, or do they want to kind of mail it in right now and put all of their efforts into simply getting back into Europe's top club competition?

As I said in Part 1, the real draw will be conducted early tomorrow morning here on the East Coast. I'll be in class until 10 but should have brief capsules for each tie before noon.

Champions League Round of 16 First Leg--Winners and Losers

After the matches Tuesday and Wednesday, some teams have clearly put themselves in a good position heading into the second leg in a couple weeks' time. Others put themselves into a hole that they'll have to climb out of in that second leg. Here, I'm going to examine the teams that fit into each of these categories.

Winners:

1. Liverpool- This is the most obvious pick; there's no question about it. You can say what you want about Marco Materazzi and how he shouldn't have been booked twice, whatever. The fact of the matter is Liverpool won 2-0 against a team in Inter Milan that is undefeated in Serie A and had only one loss to their name all season long, at Fenerbahçe in the Group Stage of the Champions League.

Liverpool didn't just beat Inter either, they dominated the match from start to finish. The Reds had 25 shots (6 on goal) compared to just 4 (0 on goal) for the Nerazzuri, 70% possession, and won numerous more corners than their opponent.

I don't think there's any way that Inter will be able to claw their way back in the second leg either as not only will they be without the suspended Materazzi and likely the injured Iván Córdoba, Rafa Benitez and Liverpool know how to shut shop and grind out the result they need. If Liverpool can nick a goal at the San Siro, Inter would need to score four goals to advance. That's not going to happen against a Benitez-coached side.

2. Sevilla- Even with their 3-2 loss at Fenerbahçe, Sevilla are in the driver's seat going into the second leg of this tie. Any time you can score twice on the road in a competition where away goals are so valuable, you're in good shape to progress. Sevilla have a +17 goal differential at home this year and are 8-1-3 in the league, so Fenerbahçe have their work cut out for them in Spain. Sevilla have to win, but any victory without conceding two or more goals will do.

3. Barcelona- This tie is essentially over as Barcelona won 3-2 at Celtic Park on Tuesday. Celtic is awful away from home in European competition and knowing that, they were really counting on their crowd to help give them a lead heading into the second leg. That didn't happen, and I would conservatively estimate Celtic's chances of winning in Spain are extremely slim to none. That's conservative.

Losers:

1. Chelsea- Underestimating Olympiacos could prove to be a fatal mistake for Avram Grant and his team if the Greek side can snatch a goal and then grind out some sort of result at Stamford Bridge. We all know that Chelsea are not exactly dynamic even at the best of times anyway; they rarely score more than two goals in a given game, but being held scoreless on Tuesday really puts the impetus on them in the second leg.

2. Schalke 04- Winning 1-0 at home over Porto very likely won't be enough for the German side. Porto are 9-1-0 on home turf in their domestic league this season, have only conceded one, yes, one goal at the Estádio do Dragão in the league (+20 goal differential), and just three in the league and Champions League combined. Schalke have been less than impressive on the road this year and will be four days removed from a league clash against Bayern Munich when they play in Portugal. I don't think they'll have the energy or the heart to get the job done there, and having only one goal in their back pocket doesn't help.

3. Lyon- An important home victory over Manchester United was in Lyon's grasp yesterday but an 87th minute goal from Carlos Tevez spoiled that possibility. The 1-1 scoreline clearly favors United as they'll welcome Lyon to Old Trafford for the second leg, needing only a 0-0 draw or a victory to advance. The juggernauts of La Ligue really squandered an opportunity to make Manchester United squirm a little bit, and now they'll have to chase a goal (or two) in a tough place for visitors to play.

Champions League Round of 16 Previews--Part 2

The night before Christmas Eve I gave you all my predictions for four of the eight Round of 16 ties in the Champions League and as promised, I have the last four today.

5. AC Roma vs. Real Madrid: This could make for a pretty entertaining two games as we'll see the current leaders of La Liga take on the current second-place side in Serie A. Madrid are 8-0-0 in the league at Santiago Bernabeu while Roma are 5-4-0 away from home, so something will have to give when Madrid host Roma on March 5. However, I think this tie will basically be decided in Rome during the first leg. If Roma can get a win and not concede a goal I think they can go to Madrid and, in true Italian fashion, sit 9 or 10 men behind the ball and grind out a draw. To me though, it's more likely that Real Madrid will score at the Stadio Olimpico and at the very worst, head home with a draw. Madrid aren't going to lose at home so the only chance Roma has to advance to the quarterfinals is to win the first leg and stave off the attacks in the second leg. Robinho and Ruud van Nistelrooy are tied for 3rd place in the top goalscorers category with four apiece. Here's what it comes down to: If Madrid can stifle Francesco Totti (9 goals in 10 Serie A matches), they'll move on and it's as simple as that.
Real Madrid-3, Roma-1

6. Arsenal vs. AC Milan: This is the most interesting tie of the round with the young bucks at Arsenal taking on the veteran old guard at Milan. Arsenal may or may not still be in serious contention to win the Premiership by the time the first leg at the Emirates rolls around in February, but AC Milan have essentially no chance to win Serie A this season. In fact, Milan may have to win the Champions League this year just to qualify for it next year as they're way off the pace even though they have three games in hand on most of the other teams in the league. Listen, I know Arsenal are 9-1-0 at home this season but they've feasted on a soft schedule; the Gunners are beatable in London, especially because Milan will have all of their focus on the Champions League as Serie A is out of reach, and because the Rossoneri boast such an experienced, battle-tested roster. They are the defending champions and I expect them to play like it when they go to the Emirates in February. Gattuso won't give Fabregas a yard of space and will hound him all game long, while Arsenal doesn't have anyone who can contain Kaka (especially if Gilberto leaves in January). To be honest, I think Milan will win both legs and advance in style.
AC Milan-3, Arsenal-1

7. Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Out of any of the teams Chelsea could have drawn for this round, I think they got their preferred choice. It won't be easy to go to Greece and come out with a result (Olympiacos is 7-0-0 at home in the league this season) but Chelsea will find a way to win 1-0 or 2-1, and they won't lose at Stamford Bridge in the return leg. The Blues won't win the Premier League and honestly, I think Avram Grant needs a deep run in the Champions League to really ensure his job status as manager. I don't care that he just signed a multi-year contract; if a big-name manager is interested, Roman Abramovich will come calling with no expense spared. As I said, Chelsea will get it done in this round with relative ease but we'll see what happens after that.
Chelsea-5, Olympiacos-1

8. Fenerbahçe vs. Sevilla: Here is the possible upset of the round; Fenerbahçe are my dark horse to move on to the quarterfinals and gain some valuable exposure for Turkish soccer. Fenerbahçe won all three of their group stage games at home en route to finishing 2nd behind Inter Milan in Group G, including a 1-0 win over Inter in September, and are 8-1-0 on home turf in the Turkcell Süper Lig so far this season. Sevilla, on the other hand, are seemingly crumbling as we speak. The back-to-back winners of the UEFA Cup now sit in 8th place in La Liga and are just three points ahead of the 13th place side, Recreativo Huelva. New manager Ronald Koeman is really trying to put his stamp on the club with the benching of some well-known players like David Albelda, Santiago Canizares and Miguel Angel Angulo, and I get the impression that the players don't have much confidence in him. Sevilla have just one win on the road in La Liga this season; they won't win in Turkey, so this tie will come down to the second leg in Seville, where they've already lost three times in nine matches. Fenerbahçe have some experienced players in Roberto Carlos, Alex, and Stephen Appiah while Sevilla's roster could be raided in January. It would be an upset in name only; I really think Fenerbahçe are the better team and we'll see that over two legs.
Fenerbahçe-3, Sevilla-2

So there you have it, my picks to move on to the quarterfinals of the Champions League. To recap:

Barcelona
Manchester United
Porto
Liverpool
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Chelsea
Fenerbahçe