Full-Time Thoughts--Arsenal vs. Liverpool

It’s all over in North London and after the first leg, Arsenal and Liverpool are level 1-1 on aggregate and will settle things at Anfield in six nights’ time. Briefly, here’s what I thought of today’s game:

• First of all, it should be said, and I know I’m stating the obvious, that this was a proper game of soccer. Both teams laid it all on the line and we saw a little bit of everything, from goal-line clearances, good, clean challenges, two well-crafted goals, and solid refereeing.

• Liverpool were extremely fortunate to get out of the Emirates with a 1-1 draw, and now they’ll head home in command of the tie. Arsenal had more chances and dominated possession in the second half, but couldn’t capitalize. They huffed and huffed, but couldn’t blow the Liverpool house down.

• William Gallas and Dirk Kuyt were terrific for their respective sides. Gallas compeletely neutralized the world’s most in-form striker at the moment, Fernando Torres, and was everywhere in the back for Arsenal. You’ll never hear anyone say Kuyt has a lot of natural talent and skill, but he’s the hardest worker on the field whenever he plays and Liverpool needed every ounce of his determination and energy today. Oh yeah, and he scored the Reds’ goal. Not too shabby.

• The Dutch referee, Pieter Vink, made the correct decision in not awarding a penalty for the Kuyt/Hleb incident in the second half. Sure, Kuyt had his arms on Hleb, but the Belorussian went down pretty easily and to be honest, wasn’t looking to score as much as he was looking for a penalty. I will guarantee you that there are Premiership referees who would’ve given a PK, because I’ve certainly seen them give penalties for less, but more so because they tend to give in to home crowds on questionable calls. Vink was looking right at the situation and had a clear view of it; he made the decision, and that’s it, end of story. It’s a talking point, but that’s all it is.

• Bringing Yossi Benayoun on for Ryan Babel was a complete waste of a substitution. Benayoun is a central midfielder; I don’t care that he's played on the wing this season for Liverpool, he’s a natural central midfielder. He doesn’t offer you pace and two-footed ability like Babel does, and Kolo Toure’s job on the right side became that much easier when Benayoun was brought into the game.

• Other than his run to set up Kuyt’s goal, Steven Gerrard really didn’t have much of an impact on the game. He made a couple of nice passes and won a couple of corner kicks, but I just didn’t see the same player who’s made his reputation off thriving on European nights. He’ll have to come up big for Liverpool next Tuesday night.

• On the other hand, Arsenal’s talisman, Cesc Fabregas, didn’t have a particularly good game either. Javier Mascherano and Xabi Alonso really limited the amount of time Fabregas had on the ball and closed him down very well. His long balls, which he’s known for, were constantly being hit 4-5 yards past where they needed to be to give Adebayor, van Persie, and Bendtner a chance to do what they do best: score goals.

• I don’t want to hear any more plugs from ESPN to take part in Derek Rae's chat session on ESPN Soccernet; I like the guy a lot and think the world of him as a play-by-play man, but I have no interest. Thanks anyway.

• As I said, Liverpool now controls their own destiny. A 0-0 draw next week will suit them just fine, and the 12th man that is the crowd at Anfield will be roaring. Can Arsenal’s inexperienced (not young) team, at least on the European stage, cope with it? We’ll see.

It will be very interesting to see the lineups that Arsene Wenger and Rafa Benitez field for their league game this weekend. Arsenal needs every single point that they can get as they’re trying to hunt down Manchester United for the league title, while Liverpool are seemingly secure in 4th place. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Benitez opts to rest Torres, and possibly Carragher and/or Gerrard, to have them all 100% for the second leg, but Wenger has to go with a full-strength team because Arsenal likely needs to win the rest of their Premiership games.

In today’s other Champions League game, Turkish side Fenerbahçe made me look good on my prediction yesterday by beating Chelsea at home 2-1. I don’t think they’ll be able to hold that lead at Stamford Bridge next week, but I’ve been very impressed with Fenerbahçe’s run in this competition and they’ve given their fans a lot to cheer about. They’ve put Turkish soccer on the map, and in the southeastern Europe/Balkan region, that league is clearly tops.

Champions League Quarterfinal Preview--Part 2

Yesterday, we took a brief look at the ties that will start tomorrow afternoon here in the US. Today, we'll look at Wednesday's games. Once again, my picks to advance to the semifinals are highlighted in bold.

1. Arsenal vs. Liverpool: Don't let Arsenal's comeback to beat Bolton this weekend fool you; the Gunners aren't playing well right now and they couldn't have been happy with drawing the European buzzsaw that is Liverpool in this round.

For Arsenal to win this tie, they must hold serve at the Emirates on Wednesday and either come away with a win or a scoreless draw. If they lose to Liverpool at home or concede in a draw, or perhaps even concede in a one-goal loss, the Reds will take that positive result back to Anfield, grind the second leg out, get the job done, and advance. You don't go into the home of England's most successful European club and come away with anything, it's that simple, at least in the Champions League. A European night at Anfield is a special, special sight to behold and the inexperience of Arsenal could be exploited there.

What are the keys for both teams? For Arsenal, as I said, they likely need to win on Wednesday.

"Well duh, but how do they do that?" Liverpool can be beaten on the wings. It's nearly impossible to penetrate through the likes of Gerrard, Alonso, and Mascherano in the middle, but Babel and Kuyt are fairly limited defensively. Unfortunately for Arsenal, those two players have just as much speed, although Kuyt perhaps a little less so, than the players (Walcott/Eboué and Rosicky) Arsene Wenger will play on the flanks. If those guys can whip balls in to Adebayor and/or Bendtner, it could come down to an aerial battle between Carragher and Skrtel and the Arsenal strikers. Personally, I'd take the Liverpool defenders, but that's just me.

For Liverpool, Ryan Babel needs to have a big game. No Bacary Sagna, who is out with an injury, on the right side likely means that either Justin Hoyte (average at best) or Kolo Touré (out of position) will be pressed into action and will have to deal with the Dutch winger. Babel has the strength to beat Hoyte one-on-one and the pace to beat Touré. If he can force his way to the byline and inside the box, that havoc will create chances all day for the most in-form striker in the world right now, Fernando Torres.

Prediction: This tie may have extra time and penalties written all over it, but I can see Liverpool getting it done in 180 minutes. With that said, I can see Arsenal doing the same but based on the Reds' European exploits and the fact that they have a better two-leg manager, I'm going with Liverpool. 0-0 in the first leg, 2-1 in the return leg at Anfield -- 2-1 aggregate

2. Fenerbahçe vs. Chelsea: I'll tell you right now, Fenerbahçe aren't going down without a fight. They will make Chelsea work for the entirety of this tie and it's not as cut-and-dry as one may think.

Usually the team who hosts the second leg has the advantage; in this case, however, I don't agree. No one, and I repeat, no one, wants to travel to Istanbul in front of the rowdy Turkish crowd and play. It's important that Fenerbahçe come out strong on Wednesday and take something positive back to Stamford Bridge. They need to set the tone in this tie and dictate to Chelsea how it is going to be played. Remember, this is a team that beat Inter Milan in this competition already, and say what you want about Milan's recent dip in form, that was still a hugely impressive result and one that shouldn't be discounted.

Chelsea was extremely fortunate to beat Middlesbrough this weekend, and they've been giving up a lot of chances in the past couple of weeks. There are goals to be had for Fenerbahçe, but they must convert their opportunities and that's something Middlesbrough couldn't do. Then again, there is a reason that Fenerbahçe are in the Champions League and Middlesbrough are..well, they're Middlesbrough.

In much the same fashion, Chelsea are going to get their fair share of chances as well against a Fenerbahçe back line that conceded five goals in two games against Sevilla in the Round of 16. The Blues possess a multitude of quality attacking players, and I would expect them to do their job and bury a couple balls into the back of the net.

I have to be honest, I haven't been able to find much information on this but if Roberto Carlos is healthy again, he'll give Fenerbahçe a big boost on the left side. The former Brazilian stalwart was named as one of the 125 best living players by Pelé in 2004 and still possesses a lethal left foot. He missed both games of the Sevilla tie, I believe, and Fenerbahçe could really use him back for this quarterfinal round.

Prediction: Fenerbahçe are a team with nothing to lose, having already exceeded expectations in reaching this stage of the competition. I expect them to play like at home on Wednesday and pull off a 2-1 win to give themselves a chance heading back to London. Chelsea doesn't score a ton of goals, so it could be a little tighter than desired, but the Blues will get it done at the Bridge. 2-1 in the first leg for the Turkish side, 3-1 in the second leg for Avram Grant's men -- 4-3 aggregate

Champions League Quarterfinal + Semifinal Draw--Live

No time for intros, I'm doing homework at the moment and have class at 9 this morning, so I'm just going to list what's been drawn so far. The quarterfinal ties are scheduled to be played April 1/2 and 8/9, and the semifinal ties are scheduled to be played April 22/23 and 29/30. More analysis later.

Quarterfinal round; first leg home team listed first; Premiership teams highlighted in bold:

Arsenal vs. Liverpool
AS Roma vs. Manchester United
Schalke 04 vs. Barcelona
Fenerbahçe vs. Chelsea

Semifinal round; same things as before apply:

Arsenal/Liverpool vs. Fenerbahçe/Chelsea
Schalke 04/Barcelona vs. AS Roma/Manchester United

My Dream Champions League Quarterfinals Draw--Part 1

The real Champions League draw for the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final will take place tomorrow in Nyon, Switzerland, and for the first time in the competition, teams from the same group or country can be paired against each other. It's likely that we'll get a few duds and also a few exciting ties; that's just how it usually turns out. UEFA says that these draws are random, which I'm not necessarily questioning, but it seems like the same teams are always drawn against each other and things have appeared a little fishy at times...

For now though, he's my dream draw for the next round of the Champions League:

1. Arsenal-Fenerbahçe: Both teams play an attacking style and are capable of scoring multiple goals in any given game, something that can't be said about every team left at this stage in the competition. I'd be interested to see how Arsenal handles the raucous crowd in Istanbul, which is a different beast altogether than than the one they encountered at the San Siro last week. I don't doubt that the Gunners would go through in this tie, but Fenerbahçe would certainly give them a good game in Turkey and both legs would have goals in them. The winner of this tie would go on to face the winner of...

2. Manchester United-Roma: A rematch of last year's quarterfinal which Manchester United won 8-3 on aggregate, using a 7-1 thrashing at Old Trafford to overcome a 2-1 deficit from the first leg. This is a different Roma team though, and their leader, Francesco Totti, is playing out of his mind right now, and Manchester United looked pretty shaky at times against Lyon in both legs of their Round of 16 encounter. Would Roma have the firepower to overcome United? I'm not sure, and a lot would depend on how Totti performs.

Check back later for my other two dream pairings.

I Missed Me Some Champions League

It's that time again, time to listen to the official Champions League Hymn that we hear before and after TV matches and sing as high as we can. Don't kid yourself; you do it, I do it, it's no big deal, even if we don't understand the words.

The Champions League is back tomorrow and I couldn't be any more excited. There are some mouth-watering ties in the Round of 16 and to me, one of the best of the bunch will be on TV tomorrow as Liverpool hosts Inter Milan on ESPN2.

I made my predictions the week that the draw came out and did a small capsule for each pairing, so if you're interested in those, go back to the blog archive from around Christmastime.

Just to put it on the record though, I'll list the eight teams that I believe will advance right now:

Liverpool
AC Milan
Chelsea
Manchester United
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Porto
Fenerbahce

I know where I'll be at 2:30 PM tomorrow afternoon, and hopefully you'll be able to find a nice couch as well and enjoy the commentary from ESPN's Derek Rae and Tommy Smyth, two of the best in the business. Should be a good game at Anfield; I can't wait to watch.

The Champions!

Champions League Round of 16 Previews--Part 2

The night before Christmas Eve I gave you all my predictions for four of the eight Round of 16 ties in the Champions League and as promised, I have the last four today.

5. AC Roma vs. Real Madrid: This could make for a pretty entertaining two games as we'll see the current leaders of La Liga take on the current second-place side in Serie A. Madrid are 8-0-0 in the league at Santiago Bernabeu while Roma are 5-4-0 away from home, so something will have to give when Madrid host Roma on March 5. However, I think this tie will basically be decided in Rome during the first leg. If Roma can get a win and not concede a goal I think they can go to Madrid and, in true Italian fashion, sit 9 or 10 men behind the ball and grind out a draw. To me though, it's more likely that Real Madrid will score at the Stadio Olimpico and at the very worst, head home with a draw. Madrid aren't going to lose at home so the only chance Roma has to advance to the quarterfinals is to win the first leg and stave off the attacks in the second leg. Robinho and Ruud van Nistelrooy are tied for 3rd place in the top goalscorers category with four apiece. Here's what it comes down to: If Madrid can stifle Francesco Totti (9 goals in 10 Serie A matches), they'll move on and it's as simple as that.
Real Madrid-3, Roma-1

6. Arsenal vs. AC Milan: This is the most interesting tie of the round with the young bucks at Arsenal taking on the veteran old guard at Milan. Arsenal may or may not still be in serious contention to win the Premiership by the time the first leg at the Emirates rolls around in February, but AC Milan have essentially no chance to win Serie A this season. In fact, Milan may have to win the Champions League this year just to qualify for it next year as they're way off the pace even though they have three games in hand on most of the other teams in the league. Listen, I know Arsenal are 9-1-0 at home this season but they've feasted on a soft schedule; the Gunners are beatable in London, especially because Milan will have all of their focus on the Champions League as Serie A is out of reach, and because the Rossoneri boast such an experienced, battle-tested roster. They are the defending champions and I expect them to play like it when they go to the Emirates in February. Gattuso won't give Fabregas a yard of space and will hound him all game long, while Arsenal doesn't have anyone who can contain Kaka (especially if Gilberto leaves in January). To be honest, I think Milan will win both legs and advance in style.
AC Milan-3, Arsenal-1

7. Olympiacos vs. Chelsea: Out of any of the teams Chelsea could have drawn for this round, I think they got their preferred choice. It won't be easy to go to Greece and come out with a result (Olympiacos is 7-0-0 at home in the league this season) but Chelsea will find a way to win 1-0 or 2-1, and they won't lose at Stamford Bridge in the return leg. The Blues won't win the Premier League and honestly, I think Avram Grant needs a deep run in the Champions League to really ensure his job status as manager. I don't care that he just signed a multi-year contract; if a big-name manager is interested, Roman Abramovich will come calling with no expense spared. As I said, Chelsea will get it done in this round with relative ease but we'll see what happens after that.
Chelsea-5, Olympiacos-1

8. Fenerbahçe vs. Sevilla: Here is the possible upset of the round; Fenerbahçe are my dark horse to move on to the quarterfinals and gain some valuable exposure for Turkish soccer. Fenerbahçe won all three of their group stage games at home en route to finishing 2nd behind Inter Milan in Group G, including a 1-0 win over Inter in September, and are 8-1-0 on home turf in the Turkcell Süper Lig so far this season. Sevilla, on the other hand, are seemingly crumbling as we speak. The back-to-back winners of the UEFA Cup now sit in 8th place in La Liga and are just three points ahead of the 13th place side, Recreativo Huelva. New manager Ronald Koeman is really trying to put his stamp on the club with the benching of some well-known players like David Albelda, Santiago Canizares and Miguel Angel Angulo, and I get the impression that the players don't have much confidence in him. Sevilla have just one win on the road in La Liga this season; they won't win in Turkey, so this tie will come down to the second leg in Seville, where they've already lost three times in nine matches. Fenerbahçe have some experienced players in Roberto Carlos, Alex, and Stephen Appiah while Sevilla's roster could be raided in January. It would be an upset in name only; I really think Fenerbahçe are the better team and we'll see that over two legs.
Fenerbahçe-3, Sevilla-2

So there you have it, my picks to move on to the quarterfinals of the Champions League. To recap:

Barcelona
Manchester United
Porto
Liverpool
Real Madrid
AC Milan
Chelsea
Fenerbahçe