Euro 2008 Group Stage Predictions Revisited

The group stage of Euro 2008 is now complete, and we were lucky to witness 12 days of compelling action all afternoon long. There were great comebacks. There were upsets. Some of the favorites held serve and did what they were expected to do.

Croatia's Slaven Bilić, who I've been high on for a while, thrust himself to the forefront of the managerial world with the way he led his team to three wins in three games. He beat Austria in their own home and Germany in their own backyard. He beat a desperate Poland team while resting nine starters as his team had already won their group. He found a way to replace Eduardo da Silva, Croatia's leading goal scorer in Euro 2008 qualifying.

David Villa's four goals for Spain, including a hat trick against Group D's second-place team, Russia, raised his stock after an extremely disappointing '07-'08 campaign for Valencia. He'll be looking to move this summer, but his price has definitely increased with his two performances.

ESPN's coverage has been good for the most part so far, although I think I may be the only one who isn't a fan of Andy Gray, a man who too often tries to preach to the viewers about soccer in general rather than staying with the task at hand, the game itself.

As I did after the end of the 2007-2008 Premiership season, I'll now take a look back at the predictions I made before this competition started:

My picks:

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Switzerland
3. Czech Republic
4. Turkey

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia
3. Austria
4. Poland

Group C
1. Italy
2. France
3. Romania
4. Holland

Group D
1. Spain
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Greece

Actual Results:

Group A (2-4)
1. Portugal
2. Turkey
3. Czech Republic
4. Switzerland

Group B (2-4)
1. Croatia
2. Germany
3. Austria
4. Poland

Group C (1-4)
1. Holland
2. Italy
3. Romania
4. France

Group D (4-4)
1. Spain
2. Russia
3. Sweden
4. Greece

So as you can see, out of the 16 total teams, I correctly picked the exact finishing places for 9 of them (56%) and was spot-on with Group D. I also correctly identified 6 out of the 8 quarterfinalists (75%). All in all, not bad, if I do say so myself (and I will).

My biggest mistakes were underestimating Holland and their explosiveness and overestimating the ability of France and Italy to overcome the age that can be found on the rosters of both nations. I counted on the home crowd to boost Switzerland to at least a place in the quarterfinals, but two bad refereeing decisions went against them in their opening match against the Czech Republic, a game they needed to have, and condemned them to their fate.