Euro 2008 Recap--Day 3

It's fair to say that the third day of Euro 2008 didn't necessarily provide us with entertaining soccer for the duration of both games (certainly not in the first one), but the results of those games were perhaps the most unexpected of the tournament so far. The favorites had won each of the previous four games in the competition, a trend that didn't continue today.

You could've slept through the Romania-France game, which ended 0-0, and not missed anything. France had two decent chances all game, both to Karim Benzema from outside the 18-yard box, and the Lyon striker missed well wide on one and sent a weak dribbler to Romanian goalkeeper Bogdan Lobonţ on the other. Those poor efforts capped a very mediocre (at best) game for Benzema, and his strike partner, Nicholas Anelka, was invisible for large chunks of the match before being taken off in the 72nd minute, six minutes before Benzema was also replaced. France clearly missed Thierry Henry up front, a player with plenty of pace and creativity to stretch the stout Romanian defense, but also someone who would undoubtedly bury one of the half-chances mucked up by Benzema.

Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery looked lively at times, but those times were few and far between. Too often they looked content to play the ball back into the middle instead of running at the Romanian full-backs one-on-one and trying to get to the endline.

Malouda and Ribery's play was a microcosm of France's performance -- too conservative, too afraid to send numbers forward, and too willing to play not to lose instead of playing to win. If the object of the game was to see how many short, square passes a team could complete, France certainly would've won, but that isn't the case.

To be fair, Romania weren't exactly world-beaters on the attacking end either, but they did at least make a concerted effort to test the aging French defenders. The problem with that from Romania's point of view is that they don't have enough team speed to dribble by anyone, and the French back line are as solid as it comes in terms of their spacing and positioning to help one another out when necessary. They are also good at winning balls in the air, and that took away from the effectiveness of Romania's set pieces, their strength.

After about the 70th minute, Romania began to sit 9 and 10 men behind the ball in an effort to get out of there with a draw. The game ground to a standstill at that point, with Romania throwing up a wall 35 yards from their goal while letting France have all the possession they wanted outside of that range. When France lost control of the ball, Romania was happy to blast it back up the field and let a lone striker chase it down. They didn't record a single shot on goal (although they had three shots blocked), but France only put one shot on target so Romania accomplished what they set out to do -- take a positive result into their second game.

In the second match of the day, won 3-0 by Holland, Italy just didn't show up. Period. Italy didn't show up. Holland completely outclassed their opponent and deserved their victory beyond any shadow of a doubt.

It was the Oranje's first win over Italy in 30 years, and it marked an emphatic end to the Italian dominance over the low-lying nation. Ruud van Nistelrooy's cool one touch finish from close range put the Dutch ahead in the 26th minute (no, Andy Gray, he was not offside), and his teammate at Real Madrid, Wesley Snejider, finished off a brilliant counter-attack five minutes later with a high, side-footed tap-in past Gianluigi Buffon. Italy was fortunate to make it to halftime only down 2-0.

In the second half, Holland continued to put on the pressure and that allowed Italy to stay in the game. The Italians were able to generate a few chances when they caught Holland out on an attack, as they weren't content with their two-goal lead. Holland put the game away for good a little more than ten minutes before full time just after Andrea Pirlo's freekick was saved by Edwin van der Sar. The ensuing counter-attack led to a 3-on-3 for Holland. Dirk Kuyt, who also had a very good game, wound up with the ball in a dangerous position on the right side of the box. His perfectly weighted cross was slammed home by Giovanni van Bronckhorst, one of the last people you'd expect to score with his head.

Italy's age showed against the faster, more dynamic Dutch side, which Roberto Donadoni may have underestimated a little bit. He didn't make any adjustments at halftime, either tactically or personnel-wise. He continued to use three central midfielders against a team that employed five midfielders and was geared around wing play. Italy had no answer for Kuyt and Snejider, and the previously little-known Orlando Engelaar had an excellent game from his holding role. Holland's back line, which had been criticized by many coming into this tournament (myself included) and labeled as the team's weakness, stifled Luca Toni all game long and Alessandro del Piero when he came in.

Holland is now in a great position atop the group, and conversely Italy is at the bottom and looking up. The Italians do have one positive to take out of today's action -- France drew with Romania, leaving Italy with just a point to make up to advance.

Group C Standings (after one game):
1. Holland (3 points, +3 goal differential)
2. Romania (1 pt, 0)
3. France (1 pt, 0)
4. Italy (0 pts, -3)

Group D finally opens up play tomorrow, with Spain taking on Russia in the early game, followed by defending champion Greece against Sweden. Look for Spain to try and make a statement to the other three teams that they are the side to beat in this group, and that those other teams will be fighting it out for second place at best.

Euro 2008 Final Prediction

I've been building up to the start of Euro 2008 for two weeks now, providing you with a one-stop-shop of sorts with final rosters for each of the 16 nations involved, previews of each nation and group, and my predictions for the quarterfinals and beyond.

Every tournament has a winner, obviously, and we're at that stage in my pre-competition coverage. It has all come down to Portugal and Italy for the right to be the European champion for the next four years.

Final (June 29, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Portugal (Winner of SF #1) vs. Italy (Winner of SF #2)

This game pits the team with the best player in the world against one of, if not the most, the most organized, disciplined nations in the world.

Portugal and Italy, respectively, play differing styles of soccer; Portugal is dynamic on the wings and is very good on the counter-attack, and Italy prefers to dominate possession and dictate the pace of the game.

Taking the leadership and intangible factors out of the equation, the absence of Fabio Cannavaro wouldn't hurt Italy against Portugal. As I've discussed earlier, Portugal doesn't have terribly much talent in the center forward position and tend to play a lone man up front anyway. Two solid center backs (Materazzi and Barzagli) should be able to shut down Nuno Gomes, or possibly either Hélder Postiga or Hugo Almeida, without a lot of trouble.

Italy's full-backs, Gianluca Zambrotta and most likely Christian Panucci, will have trouble with the pace and creativity of Cristiano Ronaldo and Simão, the two wingers in Portugal's 4-3-3/4-5-1 formation. At 35 years of age, I don't think Panucci can stick with either of those two, and the attack-minded Zambrotta is susceptible to being caught out of position on a trademark Portuguese counter-attack.

There is no question that Ronaldo and Simão would have to play well in this game and really be the catalysts from their wide positions, because the middle of the field would be an absolute bloodbath. The combination of Gattuso, Pirlo, and De Rossi for Italy and Deco, Veloso, and Petit for Portugal in or around the center circle has tough tackling, late challenges, and epic battles for 50-50 balls written all over it. It would not be for the faint of heart, but is absolutely worth watching and could very well be where this game is won and lost. The advantage has to go to Italy in this matchup; their trio is more experienced and has a more complete array of skills to use on the field, but Deco is probably the best individual player out of the six and can single-handedly swing a game in his country's favor if he's on his game.

Luca Toni has played for 10 clubs in his career and just turned 31, but he is a fantastic striker with a goal-to-game ratio of just over 1:2 both domestically and internationally. At 6'4", he has a significant size advantage over Ricardo Carvalho, who is a shut down center back and would likely have the assignment of sticking to Toni like glue. Carvalho is no slouch in the air and while the fact that Italy doesn't rely much on wing play and crosses into the area helps the Chelsea defender, he's still going to have to find a way to deal with the bigger, more powerful Toni. He has a unique skill set compared to the strikers Carvalho sees on a weekly basis in the Premier League, so that matchup will definitely be something to keep your eyes on.

Italy has the better goalkeeper in Gianluigi Buffon, although he battled a bit of a back problem with Juventus in Serie A this season which could effect his ability to dive and move side-to-side. Ricardo is a fine goalie in his own right and has great reflexes, but has struggled in the past with claiming balls out of the air. One mistake on a corner kick or a free kick, one mis-timed leap to punch the ball to safety, and big, tall Luca Toni will put it in the back of the net.

It all comes down to tempo. If Portugal is able to play their counter-attack brand of game and exploit their advantage on the wings, they'll have a chance to pull off the upset. Italy needs to slow the game down to suit their style and possess the ball in their midfield while looking for holes and weaknesses in the Portuguese back line. You'll see a high number of fouls and cards in this game as both nations have multiple players who won't hesitate to chop their opponents down if necessary, and emotions obviously will be running high in a final.

Prediction: Italy-2, Portugal-1

Euro 2008 Semifinals Predictions

The countdown to Euro 2008 is now on in earnest as we're less than three days away from kickoff in the opener, Switzerland-Czech Republic. Along with my final prediction on Friday, I'll post the complete TV schedule for the group stage for everyone's convenience. I can't wait for this thing to get started.

Onto my predictions for the semifinals.

Semifinal #1 (June 25, 2:45 PM; St. Jakob-Park, Basel):

Portugal (Winner of QF #1) vs. Germany (Winner of QF #2)

I'll be honest -- this semifinal probably would not be the most exciting game to watch.

Portugal is the more dynamic of the two nations as far as comparing the individual players, but their coach, Luiz Felipe Scolari, isn't known for playing a high-octane, up-and-down system. They also employ only one natural striker at a time and when you look at the options (Helder Postiga, Nuno Gomes, Hugo Almeida), none really have the capability of even coming close to setting the world alight. The lack of talent in that role will be a problem for Portugal against Germany, whose center backs can be exploited in their matchup against strikers who are quick and can beat you one-on-one for pace. Portugal doesn't have anyone up front who can do that, so I'd expect Cristiano Ronaldo to occupy a position right behind whoever the starting striker is and just constantly run at and terrorize the tall, slow pair of Christoph Metzelder and Per Mertesacker.

Germany has a terrific center forward in Miroslav Klose, but it's unclear who will be playing alongside him. The team is loaded in the midfield and will rely on Michael Ballack for inspiration and goal-scoring, to a lesser extent. It is a team that doesn't have the firepower to outscore Portugal, so they'll need to shut down the midfield and Ballack will play in a more subdued role to help Torsten Frings.

While Portugal has a clear advantage over Germany in the center back position, Germany possesses better, more dangerous full-backs in Philipp Lahm and either Marcell Jansen or Arne Friedrich. They'll need to go forward and provide good aerial service for Klose and Ballack, both of whom are terrific headers of the ball. However, they'll also need to their pick their spots when doing so because Portugal can counter-attack with the best of them and are incredibly speedy on the wings with Ronaldo and Simão.

I just can't see where the goals are going to come from for Germany aside from either Klose or Ballack. As alluded to earlier, the center of the Portuguese back line and their defensive midfield play is very solid. If those players do their jobs, which they should, Ballack and Klose will both be negated. Portugal has the best player in the world on their side in Cristiano Ronaldo, and he's capable of scoring in a vast multitude of ways. Also, Jens Lehmann is always capable of giving up a bad goal, so that combination looks promising for Portugal.

Prediction: Portugal-1, Germany-0

Semifinal #2 (June 26, 2:45 PM; Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna):

Italy (Winner of QF #3) vs. France (Winner of QF #4)

These two nations would be well and truly sick of each other if this matchup was to occur. France and Italy played in the World Cup final in 2006, won by Italy in PK's. They were in the same qualifying group for this tournament and played twice there, with France taking four of the six possible points. They're in Group C, the "Group of Death", together this summer and will play each other on June 17, just 9 days before this game would occur.

Just like the case would be in a France-Spain quarterfinal, there isn't much to separate between France and Italy. The major difference in the first matchup is the age gap; Spain is a much younger team at the core positions than France. In this matchup, both teams are relatively equal in that regard and their players have a lot of experience at the highest level, both internationally and domestically.

If there was one key factor to look at, it's the disparity in quality between the two goalkeepers. Italy's Gianluigi Buffon is amongst the top two or three at his position in the world, whereas France's Grégory Coupet was the long-serving backup to Fabien Barthez. To be fair, Coupet is not a slouch between the sticks by any means; in fact, he's very good and has played in a number of big games in the Champions League at Lyon. I'm just unsure as to how he'll perform in the second-largest tournament in the world after never having done it before.

Everywhere else on the field seems to be a wash. Both teams are solid up front, with Thierry Henry and either Nicholas Anelka or Karim Benzema for France and Luca Toni and either Marco Borriello or Antonio Di Natale for Italy. France prefers to use out-and-out wingers in Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery, both great internationally, and use two holding midfield players at the same time (Makélélé and Vieira/Toulalan), whereas Italy will completely clog the center of the field with Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso, and Daniele De Rossi, who is an absolutely fantastic player. France does have a better back line, especially with the devastating injury to Italy's Fabio Cannavaro, but they're also a little older and perhaps a bit more error-prone.

Prediction: Despite the fact that both teams have an abundance of attacking talent, goals will be at a premium in this game as it'll be played with a tight-to-the-vest, cautious style. It'll be an absolute bloodbath in the center of the park, and France's superior wing play will be the deciding factor. If Malouda and Ribery show up, France will win, if not, they'll go home. Italy-1, France-0

Euro 2008 Preview--Group C (Part 2)

After watching England thoroughly dominate the US in their 2-0 friendly victory at Wembley this afternoon, I'm back for the second half of this Group C preview.

Italy:

As the current world champion, Italy enters this tournament right at the top of the list of favorites. They are also the team everyone wants to beat; Italy will get everyone's best shot and they'll have to be able to take a few punches and overcome that.

To add the title of European champions, something they haven't been since 1968, to their résumé, they'll first have to advance from the toughest group in the competition. In qualifying, Italy won their group by three points over France, their newest rival. The two countries will obviously meet again in this tournament, and it's fitting that that game is the third and final match for both countries in the group stage. Italy would like nothing more than to continue their mastery over France by possibly eliminating them, and France would love an opportunity to do the same and in the process, gain some sweet revenge over the team that beat them in PK's in the 2006 World Cup final.

Roberto Donadoni made only one fairly surprising move in his 23-man roster. Many people didn't expect Sampdoria's (on loan from Real Madrid) Antonio Cassano to be included. Cassano is known throughout the world as a headcase unlike almost any other; he has been a troublemaker basically wherever he has gone and has a bad attitude, and if Donadoni didn't want to deal with the possible headache of Cassano's presence, no one would've blamed him.

However, there's never, ever been a question about Cassano's talent. He can score with both feet, has wonderful technique, has good composure and can finish pretty well, and he can beat defenders one-on-one without much trouble. Giovanni Trapattoni once labeled him as the "future of Italian football" and at only 25 years of age, the future could very well be right now. He lit it up in Serie A for Sampdoria this season, scoring 10 goals in 22 league matches en route to helping his team qualify for next season's UEFA Cup.

As I said, Cassano was really the only surprising inclusion on a team that is absolutely loaded once again. One of the two or three best at his position in the world, Gianluigi Buffon will obviously be in goal. His back line will be made up of the captain, Fabio Cannavaro, who will be in the center and may be on his last legs at the international level at the age of 34. Joining Cannavaro in the middle will be his fellow 34-year old, Marco Materazzi, with Fabio Grosso and Gianluca Zambrotta on the left and right, respectively. In the midfield, Gennaro Gattuso will play in the holding role, with Daniele de Rossi and Andrea Pirlo ahead of "the Bulldog". Luca Toni will occupy a center forward slot, possibly alongside Genoa's Marco Borriello, with Alessandro del Piero, who had a terrific season for Juventus, just behind them to finish off a 4-3-1-2 formation. The Italians count on their full-backs to provide width and service into the middle, so Grosso and Zambrotta will be keys to their success.

Romania:

Finishing off the "Group of Death", Romania surprised a lot of people by topping Holland and winning their qualifying group for this tournament. Outsiders will look at this team and not recognize many players aside from Fiorentina's Adrian Mutu and Inter Milan's Cristian Chivu, but they proved they are no pansy and will make things tough on the three more well-known nations in this group.

In all honesty, I'm one of those outsiders myself, but again, Romania showed over 12 qualifiers that they weren't a joke. They took four out of six points from Holland and have a very experienced manager in Victor Piţurcă, who also won the European Cup as a player with Steaua Bucharest. They've beaten fellow Euro 2008 competitors Russia and Turkey in friendlies in the past year, although they lost to Germany and Israel over that same stretch as well.

Concerning their squad, Bogdan Lobonţ will be in goal; with 62 caps, he has 61 more than the other two goalkeepers on the 23-man roster combined. Cristian Chivu is the nation's captain and will anchor the back line, with Răzvan Raţ on the left, Cosmin Contra on the right, and either Dorin Goian or Gabriel Tamaş joining Chivu in the center. In the midfield, I think you could see a large diamond, with Florentin Petre wide right, Mirel Rădoi in the holding role, Adrian Mutu right behind the strikers, and Răzvan Cociş on the left but drifiting into the middle. Up front, Marius Niculae will partner Ciprian Marica, Stuttgart's young 22-year old who was the club's record transfer signing.

Group C Final Prediction (teams in bold advance):

1. Italy -- 7 points
2. France -- 5 points
3. Romania -- 3 points
4. Holland -- 1 point

Tomorrow, I'll preview the fourth and final group of this tournament by taking a look at Sweden, Spain, defending champions Greece, and Russia.

Euro 2008 Final Rosters--Group C

France:

GK (3): Steve Mandanda (Marseille), Grégory Coupet (Lyon), Sébastien Frey (Fiorentina)

DEF (8): Eric Abidal (Barcelona), Jean-Alain Boumsong, Francois Clerc, and Sebastien Squillaci (Lyon), William Gallas (Arsenal), Patrice Evra (Manchester United), Willy Sagnol (Bayern Munich), Lilian Thuram (Barcelona)

MID (7): Lassana Diarra (Portsmouth), Claude Makelele and Florent Malouda (Chelsea), Jeremy Toulalan (Lyon), Patrick Vieira* (Inter Milan), Franck Ribery (Bayern Munich), Samir Nasri (Marseille)

FWD (5): Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea), Karim Benzema and Sidney Govou (Lyon), Bafetimbi Gomis (Saint-Etienne), Thierry Henry (Barcelona)

*Captain

Italy:

GK (3): Gianluigi Buffon (Juventus), Marco Amelia (Livorno), Morgan De Sanctis (Sevilla)

DEF (7): Fabio Cannavaro* (Real Madrid), Marco Materazzi (Inter Milan), Christian Panucci (AS Roma), Andrea Barzagli (Palermo), Gianluca Zambrotta (Barcelona), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Fabio Grosso (Lyon)

MID (7): Andrea Pirlo, Gennaro Gattuso, and Massimo Ambrosini (AC Milan), Daniele De Rossi, Simone Perrotta, and Alberto Aquilani (AS Roma), Mauro Camoranesi (Juventus)

FWD (6): Luca Toni (Bayern Munich), Alessandro Del Piero (Juventus), Antonio Di Natale and Fabio Quagliarella (Udinese), Antonio Cassano (Sampdoria), Marco Borriello (Genoa)

*Captain

Romania:

GK (3): Bogdan Lobonţ (Dinamo Bucharest), Marius Popa (Politehnica Timişoara), Eduard Stăncioiu (CFR Cluj)

DEF (9): Cosmin Contra (Getafe), Răzvan Raţ (Shakhtar Donetsk), Gabriel Tamaş (Auxerre), Cosmin Moţi and Ştefan Radu (Dinamo Bucharest), Dorin Goian and Sorin Ghionea (Steaua Bucharest), Cristian Săpunaru (Rapid Bucharest), Cristian Chivu* (Inter Milan)

MID (7): Mirel Rădoi, Nicolae Dică, and Bănel Nicoliţă (Steaua Bucharest), Florentin Petre (CSKA Sofia), Paul Codrea (Siena), Răzvan Cociş (Lokomotiv Moscow), Adrian Cristea (Dinamo Bucharest)

FWD (4): Ciprian Marica (Stuttgart), Adrian Mutu (Fiorentina), Marius Niculae (Inverness CT), Daniel Niculae (Auxerre)

*Captain

Note: Holland's final roster was already named.